Atlas Investments LLC
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About Atlas Investments LLC
*Atlas Investments LLC* is a Financial Modeling and Advisory Firm, dedicated to crafting innovative frameworks that foster sustainable business models. *#investwithatlas*
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USA 🇺🇸 inflation comes in Higher than Expected,Indexes head lower. DXY dollar marches on.
*What does high inflation data imply to the US economy?* The data officially puts the 10-year note yield back above 4.60%. This is +20 basis point above the lows seen just a few days ago. Such a sharp move higher in the bond market emphasizes just how hot the inflation data was. *So, what about Fed rate cut expectations?* After the data, the market now sees ONE rate cut this year, in October 2025. From there, the market does not see another rate case until DECEMBER 2026. The market effectively sees higher rates for years to come amid the recent data shifts. ~ *Atlas Investments LLC* #investwithatlas
*US 🇺🇸 Indexes is set to continue their journey higher.* The current economic context is strong and rare. The present combination of low unemployment and strong GDP growth has only occurred 6% of the time historically Prior such episodes occurred in 1965-1969 and in [the second half of the] 1990s. Each saw very strong equity market performance. With yesterday's US NFP report we saw December jobs revised upwards from 256,000 to 307,000 And the unemployment rate drop from 4.1% to 4%, indicating a resilient economy and possible inflow of more investors into stocks. ~ *Atlas Investments LLC* #investwithatlas
📊 *Wednesday Market Insights* – *USD Weakness & Key Setups!* 🚨 Dollar Extends Losses as CPI Data Looms! 🚨 🔹 The USD remains under pressure after yesterday’s pullback, with traders awaiting today's US CPI report for direction. 🔹 EUR/USD & GBP/USD surged, breaking resistance amid USD weakness. 🔹 Gold (XAU/USD) is climbing, benefiting from a softer dollar and risk-on sentiment. 📉 Key Market Drivers: 1️⃣ CPI Expectations: A lower-than-expected inflation print could push the USD lower as Fed rate cut bets increase. 2️⃣ Risk Sentiment: Stock markets are gaining, reducing demand for the dollar as a safe haven. 3️⃣ Technical Breakouts: Major forex pairs are testing key resistance zones. ~ *Atlas Investments LLC* #investwithatlas
Good morning Traders 🌍 This week features critical economic data releases, including the Consumer Price Index *(CPI)* and Federal Reserve policy updates. Expect increased volatility in USD pairs such as EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Maintain a disciplined approach and adhere to your trading strategy. 📊 ~ *Atlas Investments LLC* #investwithatlas
Just keep making progress... Even if it's one each day Let it compound, and after some days you'll be amazed how far you've come.
📊 Weekly Market Recap & Outlook | Feb 10 – Feb 14, 2025 📈📉 🔹 Forex Market Recap 1️⃣ USD Weakness 💵⬇️ • The U.S. dollar experienced a decline, influenced by delays in implementing reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump. The dollar index slipped to 107.25, suggesting reduced inflation pressures. reuters.com 2️⃣ GBP/USD Strength 🇬🇧💷 • The British pound rose to its highest level in 2025, as easing tariff fears dented the dollar. reuters.com 3️⃣ USD/CAD Movement 🇺🇸🇨🇦 • The Canadian dollar reached a two-month high against the U.S. dollar, driven by a decrease in U.S. bond yields and a break below a key support level for the USD. reuters.com 4️⃣ JPY Strengthens 🇯🇵💴 • The Japanese yen appreciated, reaching a nine-week high, as markets anticipated potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. 5️⃣ Commodity Currencies 🌏 • Currencies like the Australian dollar (AUD) and New Zealand dollar (NZD) saw gains, benefiting from improved global risk sentiment and higher commodity prices. 🔹 Stock Market Recap 1️⃣ Global Equity Inflows 🌍📈 • Global equity funds attracted significant inflows amounting to $5.66 billion in the week ending February 12, reversing the $2.47 billion net sales from the previous week. This occurred after the Bank of England's rate cut prompted a rally in European shares, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index hitting record highs driven by strong earnings from companies like AstraZeneca, Aurubis, and Societe Generale. reuters.com 2️⃣ US Markets Resilient 🇺🇸📊 • The stock market rebounded from midweek lows, with major indexes nearing record highs. Notable earnings winners included AppLovin, Robinhood, Upstart Holdings, and Shopify. investors.com 3️⃣ European Markets Rally 🇪🇺📈 • European stocks benefited from positive earnings reports and easing geopolitical tensions, with the STOXX 600 index reaching record highs. reuters.com 4️⃣ Asian Markets Mixed 🌏📉📈 • Asian shares traded mixed amid ongoing tariff concerns, with investors finding bargains despite uncertainties. businessmirror.com.ph 🔹 Commodities Recap 1️⃣ Gold (XAU/USD) 🪙 • Gold prices maintained their upward trajectory, reflecting continued demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties. 2️⃣ Oil Prices 🛢️ • Oil prices experienced slight increases, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply considerations. 🔹 Key Events to Watch Next Week (Feb 17 – Feb 21) 📌 U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes (Wednesday, Feb 19) – Insights into the Fed's policy outlook. 📌 Eurozone Consumer Confidence Data (Thursday, Feb 20) – Indications of economic sentiment in the Eurozone. 📌 UK Retail Sales Data (Friday, Feb 21) – A gauge of consumer spending in the UK. 📌 Japan Inflation Data (Friday, Feb 21) – Key data influencing Bank of Japan's policy decisions. 📌 Corporate Earnings Reports – Notable releases from major companies across sectors. 🔹 Market Outlook & Trading Insights 📊 Forex Market: The recent weakening of the USD reflects shifting market dynamics, including changes in inflation expectations and geopolitical developments. It's essential to monitor these factors closely, as they can influence currency valuations and impact investment strategies. 📊 Stock Market: While major indices have shown resilience, high valuations may lead to increased volatility. Investors should monitor earnings reports and economic indicators closely. 📊 Commodities: Gold is likely to remain supported by safe-haven demand. Oil prices may fluctuate based on geopolitical developments and supply data. 💡 Strategy & Key Levels to Watch • EUR/USD: Support at 1.0290, Resistance at 1.0735. • GBP/USD: Support at 1.2450, Resistance at 1.2650. • USD/JPY: Support at 150.955, Resistance at 152.00. • S&P 500: Support at 5900, Resistance at 6100. 🚀 Final Thoughts Markets continue to navigate a complex landscape of economic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments. Stay informed, manage risk prudently, and make decisions based on comprehensive analysis. 📢 Follow for more market insights! 🌍📈 ~ *Atlas Investments LLC* #InvestwithAtlas #Forex #Stocks #MarketAnalysis #Investing #Trading #Economy #FinancialMarkets ________________________________________ Note: This summary is based on information available up to February 14, 2025. Market conditions can change rapidly; always consult up-to-date sources before making trading decisions.
BREAKING: Alphabet stock, $GOOGL, falls over -7% after reporting Q4 2024 earnings. Alphabet, $GOOGL, 4Q 2024 earnings DISAPPOINTED: Revenue excl. traffic acquisition costs (TAC): $81.62 billion, below the expected $82.82 billion. Revenue: $96.47 billion, below the expected 96.65 billion. ⚠️Cloud sales: $11.96 billion, below the expected $12.19 billion. Earnings per share: $2.15, above the estimated $2.13. Company sees 2025 capital expenditures (CAPEX) of ~$75.0 billion, above the estimated $58.9 billion.
*What Would Happen to Key U.S. Industries Without Undocumented Workers?* With the recent mandate of president Trump on deporting illegal immigrants who hold a significant percent in the US economic through undocumented employment. The construction sector employs over 1.5 million undocumented workers, representing 13.7% of its total workforce - the highest concentration across all major industries. This substantial presence raises critical questions about the sector's labor stability and project completion capabilities. The hospitality and professional services sectors follow with approximately 1 million undocumented workers each, comprising 7.1% and 4.7% of their respective workforces. These figures highlight a complex economic reality: key industries have developed a structural reliance on undocumented labor. Any significant shifts in this workforce could trigger ripple effects across the economy, potentially affecting construction timelines, agricultural production costs, and service industry operations. What're your thoughts on how these industries may adapt to the mass deportations that are currently occurring? ~ *Atlas Investments LLC* #investwithatlas
🇺🇸 *A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook* – *A New Week and New Tariff Risks To Navigate* It promises to be yet another lively start to the week, with market-moving headlines set to roll in throughout trade on Monday and Tuesday, in a week where Trump will be everywhere and all-consuming. A scheduled TV interview to be screened before the Superbowl, a key announcement detailing the reciprocal tariff outcomes and meetings with King Abdullah of Jordan, Modi, Zelensky, Putin and possibly Xi. Trump, never one to fear being centre stage, will be a constant source of headline risk that could throw markets around, and impact sentiment at a time when many were trying to refocus attention to other market themes. The announcement on reciprocal tariffs will perhaps garner the greatest level of attention from those who trade news and must explain the why. Many have spent time reviewing the simple/trade-weighted average import tariff rates currently in place by the US’s key trading partners – with a view to better understand what a reciprocal tariff hike from Trump could look like - and which nations have the greatest import tariff rate premium and imbalance to the US’s 3.3% average tariff rate. Japan, India, Brazil, Vietnam, China and the EU nations are now firmly in the firing line. Looking for the Positives in the Impending Tariff Announcement While we saw a negative reaction in US equity/global equity futures and a rally in the USD to the headlines (on Friday) that we're set to see a reciprocal tariffs announcement this week, once we see the intel and dig into the weeds, the market may indeed see the situation in a more optimistic light. We understand that these 'reciprocal' tariffs will be implemented to address structural trade imbalances, but in the process, there could be an element of negotiations set to play out. Subsequently, those nations that may be subject to a new higher tariff rate to US buyers could respond before a deadline by lowering the tariff rate imposed on key US imports. Voila, this scenario could, over time, be seen as a net positive for global trade and promote a turnaround in market sentiment. China’s Tariffs Set to Kick In on Wednesday We also know that China’s 10-15% tariffs announced last week on a range of US imports are set to kick in on Wednesday. Yet, while markets haven’t been overly troubled by this if there is no firm dialogue between Xi and Trump by mid-week, then it may pose more of a risk to the recent rally and outperformance seen in HK/China equities. USDCNH also needs close attention, as the buyers are starting to regain control of the tape and where a rally back towards 7.3500 would likely see the USD appreciate on a broad basis. Copper is also one for the radar, with price pushing into $4.59 and the best level since October. The move reflective of concerns of a possible future tariff on US copper imports rather than on better growth dynamics, with metals traders pulling copper to Comex vaults and away from the LME. As such, many in the hedge fund community have been actively trading the CME-LME copper arb - i.e. long CME copper vs short LME copper. All the Gold to Comex Vaults Gold traders know the dynamic seen in the copper market only too well, with fears of impending Trump tariffs on gold imports resulting in another 3.28m troy oz of physical gold delivered to Comex vaults in the US last week. The scene in the London markets is clearly precarious, with a significant scarcity of physical gold leading to a spike higher in short-term lending rates and even in the borrowing rates in the GLD ETF. We see that stress in the paper market, with electronic claims trading at a decent discount to spot gold or futures pricing, with counterparty risk clearly on the rise. US CPI the Marquee Data Risk This Week Tariff risk aside, the focus falls on the US data flow, and notably on Tuesday’s US core CPI release. After an outsized reaction in US Treasuries, the USD and S&P500 futures on Friday to full 100bp jump to 4.3% in the University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations survey, it’s clear the market has become just that bit more sensitive to right-tail risk and higher price pressures. With the median estimate from economists calling for US core CPI to come in at +0.3% m/m, a core CPI print that rounds up to 0.4% m/m may negatively impact risk and see the USD well bid. Conversely, a core CPI below 0.2% m/m could see the market's pricing for the next Fed cut brought forward from September to July, with relief buying seen in US equity with broad USD selling. Fed chair Powell will testify to the Senate on Tuesday and again to the House on Wednesday. I suspect increased interest will fall on Powell’s second testimony to the House, given it comes 90 minutes after the US CPI print – so, if the CPI print proves to be an outlier, then Powell may be probed by House representatives on the significance of the inflation outcome and how it would affect the Fed’s thinking. US PPI and retail sales will also garner attention from traders – but again, it may take a sizeable beat/miss vs consensus expectations to get markets pumping. UK Q4 GDP a Possible Market Mover There is little tier 1 data to worry traders too intently in Europe, the UK, China, Japan and Australia, with UK and EU Q4 GDP perhaps the highlight from these regions. GDP is not a data point I have trouble holding positions over, given the overly backwards-looking nature of the release – but given growth in both regions is so anemic, and UK GDP is expected to contract on the quarter, the GBP and EUR could be more sensitive this time around. GBPJPY looks especially interesting, with the spot rate closing at the lowest level since September 2024, with rallies likely to be limited and sold through the week and I remain skewed for lower levels. ASX200 Traders Eyeing CBAs’ Earnings In Australia, the countdown is on to the 18 Feb RBA meeting and the clear prospect of the first rate cut since 2020. With limited economic data out this week to influence market pricing on near-term rate cut expectations, the focus locally turns to ASX200 1H25 corporate reporting with JB Hi-Fi, CSL and CBA the highlights on the calendar this week. CBA (set to report on Wednesday) will be the single-greatest risk from earnings to the ASX200, not just because it has the largest weighing on the index, but with NAB, WBC and ANZ all reporting 1H25 numbers in May, CBAs earnings could influence the share prices of the other banks too. Local insto’s are all in on CBA, and it’s not hard to understand why, as the quality of the business is there for all to see. Valuation remains the primary concern for those wanting to put new money to work in the name and given the strong rally into earnings one suspects the bar to please the market is sufficiently elevated. That said, as long as 1H25 NPAT comes in around $5.1b, margins improve as expected, and the asset quality shows limited signs of deteriorating then pullbacks in the share price should be shallow, and depending on how the macro news flow impacts broad sentiment, CBAs share price and the ASX200 can push further higher. So, another big week for traders, with tariff headline risk and US CPI the obvious landmines to navigate. Good luck to all. ~ *Atlas Investments LLC* #investwithatlas