*Money Times Talk* *15th February 2025* ₹ Although Money Times recommendation have outperformed other media, stock brokers and research houses, the brief recommendations under Money Times Talk (MTT) cannot display ‘BUY’, ‘SELL’ or ‘HOLD’ recommendations. Readers should, therefore, exercise their own judgement and evaluate the future prospects of the stock given its past performance, industry prospects in the backdrop of a growing economy and in consultation with their investment adviser. As per astrology view, some important turning dates are 17, 21, 24, 27 February 2025 with limited chances of a broad-based rally this year. A South Indian astrologer predicts market stability post- Maha Kumbh on 26th February 2025 with a bearish sentiment possibly turning bullish/consolidated. Stay cautious as unexpected market swings due to global events including tweets from Donald Trump may cause sharp gaps. Avoid overtrading, heavy investments and margin funding for the next four years to protect capital. On 14th February 2025, heavy selling hit small/midcap/SME stocks. A pullback in Nifty and Sensex is unlikely without stability in broader markets. As per market veteran, buy regrets in a bear market, sell mistakes in a bull market and accumulate convictions during corrections. Tariff war impact will be clear only post Q1FY26 results in July 2025. Until then, markets may stay in consolidation with a sell-on-rise sentiment. While investing, hold onto great businesses. This is the key to creating wealth. Here’s why: 1. Focus on business fundamentals – Stock prices fluctuate, but revenue growth, profitability and competitive edge drive long-term value. If the business grows, the stock price follows. 2. Meaningful allocation matters – 5x-10x returns sound great but the impact depends on the capital. Rs.50 lakh growing to Rs.5 cr. builds wealth while Rs.1 lakh growing to Rs.10 lakh has a limited effect. 3.Patience is the key – Even top businesses take years to grow. Investors who hold through market cycles benefit from compounding. 4. Market cap growth takes time – Expanding from Rs.6,000 cr. to Rs.1 lakh cr. or Rs.25,000 cr. to Rs.5 lakh cr. needs sustained revenue and profit growth. Wealth is built by identifying strong businesses, investing with conviction and holding for long-term. As per market veteran, companies are raising equity, shifting risk to investors. Despite corrections, most small/midcaps remain overvalued. Prefer hybrid/multi-asset/large-cap funds over speculative SME IPOs and avoid F&O. As per market veteran, even if Nifty crosses 25000 in FY25-26, your stocks may not rise. Invest wisely, check fundamentals, PE, EPS, growth prospects and valuations. Avoid manipulated rosy stories in media. Repeating past mistakes in a bull run can wipe out the capital. Many stocks are below Feb 2020 levels. As per market veteran, markets remain bearish and timing them is impossible. Stick to core valuations and avoid over-owned stocks as weak hands exit quickly on bounce backs. As per market veteran Sunil Singhania, Indian markets aren't cheap even after corrections, though the fall may slow. A V-shaped recovery is unlikely; expect a W-shape in select stocks. ALERT: As per market grapevine, most SME stocks remain overpriced and trade at PE of 30-90x despite corrections. With the Nifty PE around 19x such valuations are unsustainable and sharp corrections are likely by March-end. As per market grapevine, IPOs should be few but of better quality. Markets with few IPOs saw stronger returns: Germany (4 IPOs, 50% return), Pakistan (7 IPOs, 80% return), while India had 315+ IPOs with many now below issue prices. Avoid overpriced IPOs like Afcons Infra, Akum Drugs, Carraro India, Concord Enviro, DAM Capital, Deepak Builders, Eco Mobility, First Cry, Gopal Snacks, Godavari Biorefineries, Hyundai Motor, Indo Farm Equipment, Kross, Laxmi Dental, NTPC Green, Ola Electric, RK Swamy, Stanley Lifestyle, Swiggy and others. As per market veteran, investing in small/midcaps/SME stocks requires deep research. PE alone isn’t enough. Combine it with cash flow trends, debt, industry cycles and management quality. A high PE can be justified by strong cash flows, while a low PE can signal structural issues. As per market grapevine, brutal selling in small/midcaps/SME stocks is due to inexperienced retail investors and fund managers overpaying in markets or QIPs. Over 3200+ fund managers have less than three years of experience. Many QIP stocks from the past 7-9 months are now 30-60% below the issue price. Shift investments to reputed hybrid, multi-asset, or large-cap funds managed by experts with 10-15 years of experience. As per market veteran, post-COVID, markets surged with many stocks rising 5-20×, leading to unrealistic CAGR expectations. Investors went all-in on equity, ignoring FDs, gold and silver. Now, as gold and silver hit new highs, the importance of diversification is clear. Indian housewives, the best long-term investors, have accumulated 25,000 tonnes of gold, now worth USD 1 trillion as per World Gold Council (WGC). As per market veteran, bull markets favor technical analysis, liquidity and high-growth stocks while volatile markets demand a focus on fundamentals and low valuations. Adapting to market cycles is the key. As per market grapevine, SIP cancellations exceeded new registrations in Jan 2025, with a stopping-to-registered ratio crossing 100% for the first time. If the market doesn’t stabilize, redemptions may rise, shifting funds to Hybrid-Multi Asset/Large Cap funds managed by experienced professionals. Market veterans note that prominent HNIs, including Jhunjhunwala, Kacholia, and Kedia, saw portfolio declines of up to 50%. However, their low-cost holdings keep them in profit unlike less experienced fund managers and retailers who entered at high valuations and now face 30-70% erosion. Recent QIPs have seen significant corrections, with examples like HCC, which issued QIP at Rs.43 but now trades at Rs.26. Many QIPs from 2024, worth Rs.1,48,000 cr., have crashed. As per market grapevine, SME stocks have not witnessed the same level of correction as small/midcaps but still trade at high PEs (30-90x). A sharp correction in SME stocks is possible by March-end. FII outflows remain high with Rs.29,155 cr. sold in February till 14th, following Rs.87,373 cr. in Jan 2025. Since 27th Sept 2024, FIIs have offloaded Rs.3,02,747 cr. Market grapevine suggests government intervention on taxes may be needed to slow the outflows. Nifty may see further decline or a 5-7 month consolidation as key indicators near a breakdown. Market cap to GDP at 114 is high, and 2025-26 favors accumulating quality stocks. Bulls may get active above 23633, while support is at 22112; a break could lead to 21784. Every rise is an exit until FII selling halts. As per market veteran, 90-95% were eager to invest at 26000, but only 5-10% at 22000. Market cap fell 23% from $5.18T to $3.99T. Bottoming is a slow, painful process, testing patience and conviction, making only 10% successful in markets. With NYSE, Nasdaq and US bond markets shut on Monday, unexpected moves may follow. *Fiberweb (India)* posted 167% higher PAT of Rs.9.99 cr. in 9M v/s. HNIs hold 15.81%. Stock available at attractive valuations around Rs.44 v/s its 52-week high of Rs.66. True on both sides: A stock down 80% can fall another 50%. A stock down 80% regaining 60% of peak becomes a 3-bagger; recovering fully is a 5-bagger. In sharp corrections, markets dump everything, but quality stocks rebound over time. Historical trends show even blue chips offer buying opportunities during crashes. FNO Stocks Correction: Major stocks corrected 39-49% from peaks, including Tata Motors (-43%), SAIL (-43%), NHPC (-40%), Exide (-45%), Kalyan (-47%), Hind Copper (-47%), Voltas (-42%), Prestige (-42%), REC (-39%), JSW Energy (-45%), NBCC (-44%), IDFC FB (-44%), HAL (-40%), BHEL (-45%), ABB (-44%), Angel (-48%) and more. QIP Alert: 2024 saw Rs.1.41 lakh cr. raised via QIPs, the highest in 11 years, yet many trade 30-60% below issue price, raising doubts about fund managers’ competence. As per market grapevine, SEBI should enforce stricter norms on overvalued QIPs and IPOs. SME Stock Bubble: Australian Premium Solar trades at a PE of 152x, with many SMEs at 30-150x. With Nifty struggling at 20.5x PE, such valuations seem unsustainable, risking a major sell-off. Avoid high PE stocks amid 2025 uncertainty. *Sandur Manganese* posted 1414% higher PAT of Rs.137.3 cr. revenue grew 522% to Rs.951 cr., and EBITDA soared 1282% to Rs.240 cr. Its margins expanded to 25.27% and share looks attractive at Rs.345 vs. 52-week high of Rs.636. As per market grapevine investors can concentrate on Dynemic Products, Fiberweb (India), Fredun Pharma, Gujarat Intrux, Pennar Industries, Resonance Specialities, SNL Bearings, Somi Conveyor Beltings, Texmo Pipes & Products, Tyche Industries, Zenith Fibers offer medium-term potential. Stay in the game. *Fredun Pharma* ramped up production 2.9x, targeting 300% growth in Q1FY26. Launched a pet foods plant & Fredna Vet Diagnostics, India's first pet diagnostic center with a CBCT machine. Strong growth ahead. *Fiberweb (India)* expands into Spunlace Fabrics with biodegradable materials backed by Rs.200 cr. fundraise. Keep radar. *Somi Conveyor Beltings* posted 95% higher Q3 PAT of Rs.1.48 cr. vs. Rs. 0.76 cr. in Q3FY24. If available in the Rs.145-155 range, it looks attractive against its 52-week high of Rs.236. *Resonance Specialities*, posted 53% higher PAT at Rs.3.48 cr. in 9MFY25. Share looks attractive at Rs.81 v/s its 52-week high of Rs.132. *Pennar Industries* posted 20% higher 9M PAT of Rs.83.73 cr. Stock looks attractive in the Rs.135-140 range v/s its 52-week high of Rs.228. *Texmo Pipes & Products'* Q3 PBT zoomed 940% to Rs.5.72 cr. and 9M PAT at Rs.13.05 cr. with an EPS of Rs.4.15. Share at Rs.56+ v/s its 52-week high of Rs.108. If it crosses Rs.70 with volume, it may touch Rs.80-90. *Balu Forge* posted 134.09% rise in PAT with margins improving 528 bps to 22.24% in Q3FY25, while revenue rose 73.91% YoY to Rs.2,557.83 mn. *BLS International* posted its highest-ever quarterly revenue of Rs.512.8 cr., up 17.1% YoY with EBITDA surging 78.5% YoY to Rs.158.1 cr. and margins rising to 30.8%. *Paisalo Digital* saw a 25% rise in NII with the promoter group hiking its stake via market purchases. *TBZ* rebounded from Rs.170 to Rs.195 despite market weakness. With strong Q3 numbers and a P/E of 10x, it looks attractive. *Cords Cable* posted strong Q3 results with revenue and profit growth. At Rs.177 and a P/E of 10x, backed by Ashish Chugh, it holds good potential. *Zaggle Prepaid,* backed by Ashish Kacholia, dropped from Rs.600 to Rs.350. With QIP at Rs.523, accumulate now for 50% upside. Small and mid-caps are down 50% from their peak. Great buying opportunity for quality stocks with a medium-term view. *Sejal Glass* Q3FY25 NP zoomed 235% maintaining the growth momentum. Fiberweb India 9MFY25 NP zoomed 167% YoY. *Manaksia Coated Metals* posted 67% growth in 9MFY25 earnings. *Nisus Finance* exited a Mumbai redevelopment project with ~21% IRR. *Dev IT* posted 51% higher Q3FY25 total consolidated income. *Focus Lighting* reported a massive 1,237% jump in standalone Q3FY25 net profit. *Sumit Woods* posted 51% higher Q3FY25 total income. *DEV IT* secures Rs.1.92 cr. contract from Gujarat Energy Development Agency. *Focus Lighting* bags major orders worth Rs.6.43 cr. *AVG Logistics* posted 56% PBT growth in 9MFY25. *Khazanchi Jewellers* posted 113% higher Q3 PAT YoY driven by strong revenue and gold demand. *NPST* surpassed FY24 revenue in just 9MFY25 showcasing strong momentum. *Techknowgreen Solutions* accquires a commercial space for its TRL9 Lab to boost R&I capabilities. *Shri Keshav Cement* posted Rs.85.64 cr. total income in 9MFY25. *Supreme Power Equipment* secures Rs.10.18 cr. order for transformer components. *Power & Instrumentation* posted 278% net profit growth in Q3 & 9MFY25. *Praveg* reported Rs.55 cr. consolidated total income in Q3FY25. *Active Clothing* posted 223% higher net profit in Q3FY25. TT Group & AFCOM Cargo expand their strategic air freight partnership. *Dhunseri Ventures* posted 75% YoY PAT growth in Q3FY25 with EPS of Rs.26.58. Expected FY25 EPS of Rs.101 suggests over 45% upside even at a conservative 5x PE. *Apollo Micro Systems* posted 80% YoY Q3 PAT growth backed by a strong Rs.550 cr. order book positioning it for significant expansion. *Eco Recycling* posted Q3 NP of Rs.4.74 cr., as revenue rose Rs.9.92 cr. from Rs.7.47 cr. recording an EPS of Rs.2.53. Share available at Rs.613 against its 52-week high of Rs.1215. *PNC Infra's* debarment period has been reduced by Ministry of Road Transport and Highways on 6th Feb 2025 from 1 year to 4 months effective 18th Oct 2024. Highly Positive. *IFB Agro Industries* posted Q3 EPS of Rs.12 and 9M EPS of Rs.23.4, which may lead to FY25 EPS of Rs.35. The share is worth in the portfolio. *Manoj Vaibhav Gems* posted Q3 EPS of Rs.5.2 and 9M EPS of Rs.15.1, which may lead to FY25 EPS of Rs.21+. It spent Rs.192 cr. on 8 new jewellery stores. Strong outlook. *Paul Merchants* approves the slump sale of its Gold Loan Business to L&T Finance for Rs.537 cr., marking a strategic exit from the segment. *NLC India* (Neyveli Lignite) posted 553% higher Q3 EPS of Rs.9.8 and 228% higher 9M EPS of Rs.21, which may lead to FY25 EPS of Rs.30. Share trades at a forward P/E of 6.9x. *PNC Infra* has Rs.19,900 cr. in ongoing contracts, 2.6x FY24 revenue indicating strong growth prospects. *Mahanagar Gas* invests Rs.385 cr. in a JV with International Battery (IBC US), targeting a 40% stake and setting up a giga factory in Bangalore. *Goodluck India* posted Q3 EPS of Rs.12.1 and 9M EPS of Rs.37.5, which may lead to FY25 EPS of Rs.50. Share trades at a forward P/E multiple of 14x. Its long-term prospects look bright. *Nile Ltd*. into lead alloys and lithium-ion recycling, posted Q3 EPS of Rs.38.4 and 9M EPS of Rs.105, which may lead to FY25 EPS of Rs.130. Available at a 54% discount to its 52-week high. *Mahanagar Gas* acquires 100% in Unison Enviro from Ashoka Buildcon for Rs.286.7 cr., boosting revenue and profitability. *GAIL* posted 38% higher 9M EPS of Rs.15.2, which may lead to FY25 EPS of Rs.22. Its medium-to-short-term prospects appear bright. *NMDC* posted 29% higher Q3 EPS of Rs.2.1 and 9M EPS of Rs.5.8, which may lead to FY25 EPS of Rs.8.5 from Rs.6.3 in FY24. The share trades at a forward P/E multiple of 7x. *Indo Count Industries* expands its utility bedding business with a greenfield facility in North Carolina strengthening its U.S. market presence. *Century Enka* posted 165% higher 9M EPS of Rs.27.3, which may lead to FY25 EPS of Rs.38. The share trades at a forward P/E multiple of 12.4x vs. industry average P/E multiple of 28x. *Arkade Developers* secures a 6.5-acre redevelopment project at Dahisar in Mumbai with a GDV of Rs.1700 cr., boosting future revenue and profitability. *Morganite Crucible* posted Q3FY25 EPS of Rs.14 and 9M EPS of Rs.44, which may lead to FY25 EPS of Rs.60. *Amwill Health Care* is into derma-cosmetics across Karnataka, Andhra & Telangana. Its post-IPO trades below issue price amid market turbulence, presenting a long-term opportunity. *Aartech Solonics* posted its highest-ever Q3 PAT at Rs.1.80 cr. (up 210%) and sales at Rs.9.55 cr. (up 30%). With a strong order book and new clients, it has solid turnaround potential. *Rudra Global Infra* plans Rs.190 cr. capex for a 30MW solar project, targeting Rs.1000 cr. turnover. It secures an LOI for a 3.3MW wind project boosting growth prospects. *Tata Power* posts 10.5% higher Q3 PAT of Rs.1188 cr. and 5% higher sales of Rs.15391 cr. Its strong push into renewables with 1 lakh charging stations and key tie-ups ensure long-term growth. *Money Times Talk is part of 'Money Times' publication.bs*