Marathi Sanket
January 31, 2025 at 08:22 AM
*Current Equity Market Correction: Key Reasons*
1. *Tight Liquidity*: Liquidity conditions are significantly negative, around ₹2.5–3 lakh crore.
2. *Rupee Depreciation*: The rupee continues to weaken and is expected to stabilize around 92, according to experts.
3. *US Interest Rates*: Elevated US interest rates and an inverted yield curve are adding pressure.
4. *Weak Corporate Earnings*: Disappointing earnings in Q2FY25 have impacted market sentiment.
5. *Government Capex Allocation*: A significant portion of capex is directed toward non-multiplier segments, reducing its overall productivity.
RBI’ yesterday addressed Liquidity and Currency Concerns
1. *Open Market Operations (OMO)*: ₹60,000 crore G-Sec purchase to inject liquidity.
2. *56-Day VRR Auction*: ₹56,000 crore through a Variable Rate Repo to address short-term liquidity needs.
3. *USD/INR Swap*: A $5 billion buy/sell swap for six months to stabilize the rupee and manage forex reserves.
These measures are equivalent to a “rate cut” in terms of their impact and signal the RBI’s proactive stance.
Other Factors
1. *US Interest Rate Outlook*: Rate cuts are expected by Q3 CY2025 as prolonged high rates could strain the US economy.
2. *Corporate Earnings*: Earnings recovery is anticipated from Q2 FY26 as macro conditions improve.
3. *Capex Allocation:* The upcoming budget may emphasize productive, growth-oriented investments.
*Investment Strategy Amidst correction and Volatility*
*#the next six months could remain volatile due to these factors. This presents an opportunity to:#*
*# Invest systematically in equity-oriented products that have the potential to generate alpha.#*