Jhaveri Securities Ltd
Jhaveri Securities Ltd
February 17, 2025 at 04:30 AM
*HSBC On SBI Cards* Upgrade To Buy, Target Raised To Rs1,000 From Rs560/sh Improvement In Card Issuance, Softening Money Market Rates Are Positives Credit Cost Drop Could Drive Sharp EPS Upgrades An Earnings Upgrade Cycle Is More Likely Now Other Markers On Asset Quality Have Been More Positive In Q3FY25 *CLSA On Hindalco* Buy Cal, Target Rs815/sh Reported Another Strong Quarter In India Helped By Higher Prices & Flat Costs Stable Aluminium Prices, Believe Q4 Domestic Aluminium Profitability Likely To Remain Strong Novelis Was Guided To Bounce Back Secured Coal Blocks & Downstream Expansion Should Further Support Domestic Profitability Debt Is Likely To Rise Over The Next Three Years As Expansion Projects Pick-up Steam Benefits Of New Projs Will Become Visible FY27 Onwards *Jefferies On Hindalco* Buy Call, Target Rs800/sh Stock Is Down 18% In Last 4 Months & Has Underperformed Indian Peers Stk Underperformed Despite 1-9% Upgrade To Consensus FY25-26 EPS Vs 22-55% Cuts For Peers Q3 EBITDA Rose 26% YoY, In-line With Est As India Biz Offset A Weaker Novelis Concern Over Novelis' Margins On Rising Scrap Prices Is Alleviating India Business Is Benefiting From Higher Aluminum Price FY26 PB At 1.0x Is Reasonable *Jefferies On Reliance* Buy Call, Target Rs1,660/sh DHC Has Overturned Its Own Decision & Ruled In Favour Of Govt in KG D6 Block Case In An Arbitration Related To Gas Prodn From KG D6 Block, Requiring RIL-¬Bp To Pay $ 1.55 Bn RIL-Bp Consortium Is Likely To Challenge Order In SC See No Near-term Implications For Reliance From This Order Reiterate Recovery In Retail's Growth, A Possible Public Listing Of Jio Reiterate Recovery In O2C Profitability Should Lead To 13% EBITDA Growth In FY26 *Nomura On M&M* Buy Call, Target Rs3,681/sh Impressive Start For BEVs With 30,000 Bookings Co Has Received 56%/44% Bookings For 9e/BE6 More Importantly, 73% Of Bookings Have Come For Top-End 79 kwh Pack Three Believe That 30,000 Orderbook, Especially With 73% Top-End Mix, Is A Strong Number Price-Points Are Very High, EV Market In India Is Still In A Nascent Stage *Citi On M&M* Buy Call, Target Rs3,680/sh Mahindra’s BEVs; XEV9e & BE6 Received 30,179 Bookings On 1st Day Of Bookings Mgmt Noted That Value Of These Bookings Is Rs8,472 Cr (At Ex-Showroom Price) XEV 9e Contributed 56% To The Bookings While BE6 Contributed 44% Deliveries Will Begin In Late-March’25 In A Phased Schedule Absolute Vols Of BEVs Have Been Much Lower Than Some Of Recent Models Launched By M&M Given Capacity Is 5,000 Units/Month, Orderbook Stands At Around 6 Months Need To See How The EV Facility Ramps Up & What Is Cancellation Rate *MS on M&M* Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 3675 30,179 BEV Bookings – Almost USD1bn Orderbook; an impressive start Mix was a positive surprise: XEV 9e received 56% of bookings while Pack 3 variant accounted for 73% of bookings M&M likely to be fastest growing PV play in 2025 *GS on M&M* Buy, TP Rs 3800 BE6 + XEV 9E Day 1 Bookings (30k) to imply 8% incremental SUV Volume on FY26 GSe Expect BE 6 & XEV 9E models to collectively contribute 46k units or 8%/18% of M&M FY26E SUV vol/rev in FY26E This implies 24%/29% FY26E vol/rev share in India’s E-Car market *HSBC On Gujarat Pipavav* Upgrade To Hold, Target Rs150/sh Q3 EBITDA Declined 6% YoY On Weaker Container & Bulk Volumes Liquids To Deliver Vol Growth But Earnings Growth Hinges On Container Cargoes, We Argue Cut FY25-27 Profits By 4-5% *HSBC On Pharma* Concerns On US Tariffs Appear Overdone Await Specifics For The India Pharma Industry Think Reciprocal Tariffs By The US Are Unlikely Indian Cos Supply 60% Of Generic Drug Volume To The US Indian Cos Help The US Healthcare System To Lower Costs Hypothetical 10% Tariff Would Lead To A 1-6.5% Cut To FY26 EPS Market Focussed On Long-Term Growth Prospects *Nomura On Glenmark Pharma* Neutral Call, Target Rs1,500/sh Q3 Below Est, Revenues & EBITDA Supported By Higher Other Operating Income Key Negative Surprise Was India Revenues Missed Est By 15% US Sales At $92.5 M A Marginal $4 M Rise QoQ & Were $2.5 m Higher Than Est *CITI on CONCORD Bio* Neutral, TP Rs 1880 3Q disappointing with subdued trends in both APIs & formulations Rev up 1% YoY while EBITDA declined 7% YoY to Rs980m As per co, change in procurement pattern at end of customers led to weakness in quarter & therefore, 4Q may be better *CLSA on Manappuram Fin* O-P, TP Rs 225 Process changes in gold loans; MFI normalcy some time away Slower gold loan growth due to operational rejig Increased opex and cost of funds Asirvad MFI credit costs 17% (annualised); growth guidance revised downwards *MS on Deepak Nitrite* OW, TP Rs 3000 DPNT expects profitability to improve starting Q4 Demand trends in key sectors, start-up of key projects and clarity on funding will be key to watch

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