*Chase Securities* *What You Should Know Today* *03rd February, 2025* *Key Headlines* 1. Rs84bn shortfall in Jan tax collection 2. WB to extend $1bn loan for Dasu project 3. Govt plans to cut electricity prices from March 4. Govt eyes circular debt conversion into public debt 5. Sugar prices up for 10th straight week, hit Rs150.43 per kg 6. Govt panel proposes relief package for real estate, housing sector *Market Outlook: Packages and Reviews* Inflation data for January 2025 is set to be released today, with analysts expecting it to fall within the 3%-4% range—one of the lowest figures in the past decade. Inflation is projected to remain in single digits for the coming months, though some base effects may start impacting figures from April 2025. However, a reduction in electricity prices, expected from March 2025, could push inflation even lower than anticipated, increasing expectations of an interest rate cut in the near future. The government is actively exploring multiple strategies to lower electricity tariffs. These include renegotiating agreements with Independent Power Producers (IPPs), terminating certain contracts, converting circular debt into public debt, and rescheduling outstanding liabilities. While these measures have the potential to bring down electricity costs, any formal proposals will need approval from the IMF during the upcoming review. Additionally, the government may consider presenting a relief package for the real estate or housing sector, though the Pakistan Business Council has strongly opposed such measures, and the IMF is unlikely to support them. Meanwhile, concerns remain over the growing tax collection shortfall, which has now exceeded PKR 450 billion, and it remains to be seen what corrective measures the IMF will propose. As February begins, several key events will shape market sentiment, including today's CPI release, the MSCI review scheduled for this month, the IMF team's visit, and the ongoing corporate earnings season. *Top Picks* OGDC, PPL, PSO, UBL, MEBL, BAFL, FFC, FATIMA, CHCC, MLCF, DGKC, SAZEW, GHNI, ATLH, AGTL, INDU, ISL, ASL, PSX, LOADS, COLG, GCIL, PAKT, IMAGE, SPEL, HUMNL, TGL, GHGL *Important Board Meetings Today* PRL, Good Luck Industries, CHAS, Premier Sugar- Corporate Results TOMCL, PNSC- Other Matters *Corporate Briefing* N/A *Start of Ex-Price today* N/A *Last Day of Entitlement* COLG- 320% Dividend *Other Key Events Today* CPI For the Month of January 2025 will be released today *Results to be Announced at Market Open* THCCL