Stats and Facts!
February 24, 2025 at 06:03 PM
A story worth reading!
In the early 2000s, Amaranth Advisors was a rising star in the hedge fund world. By mid-2006, it had grown into a $9 billion powerhouse, thanks in part to its aggressive energy trading strategies. At the heart of this success was Brian Hunter, a star trader with a golden touch in natural gas markets.
Hunter had made a fortune predicting market moves, especially during hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. Betting on history repeating itself, he doubled down on natural gas in 2006—anticipating another harsh winter that would send prices soaring. His positions were highly leveraged, speculative, and complex. But this time, nature had a different plan.
No hurricane. No harsh winter. Instead, surplus inventory flooded the market, triggering a panic sell-off. The price of natural gas plummeted. Amaranth, instead of cutting losses, borrowed more money and doubled down. Leverage hit an eye-watering 1:8—meaning for every $1 of their own capital, they had $8 in borrowed money riding on the bet.
The market didn’t care. Prices kept falling. And with them, Amaranth collapsed. The fund lost $6 billion in a matter of days, marking one of the largest hedge fund failures in history.
The lesson? Risk management is not optional. It sits above every trade, every strategy, and every conviction. Respect risk, and it will respect you back. Ignore it, and it will show you the door.
Before making your next big bet in natural gas (or anywhere else), ask yourself: Are you managing risk, or is risk managing you?
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