MONEY TIMES TALK 2ND FEBRUARY 2025 As per astro view, key market turning dates are 1st, 3rd, 7th, 10th, 14th and 17th Feb 2025 with stock-specific volatility and sharp swings expected till 17th Feb 2025. Guide to spot a Multibagger: 1 - MCap > 500 crore, 2 - PEG Ratio < 1, 3 - PE < Industry PE, 4 - ROE (5Yrs Avg.) > 20%, 5 - ROCE (5Yrs Avg.) > 15%, 6 - D/E < 0.5, 7 - Promotor Holding > 50%, 8 - Sales Growth 3 Yrs, > 15%. 9 - Profit Growth 5 Yrs > 15%, 10 - Pledged % < 1. 11- OPM > 15%, 12 - Price to Sales < 7, 13 - EV/EBITDA < 20. Legendary market veteran Ramesh Damani’s advice to new investors: 1. Understand the power of compounding early. 2. Think independently with integrity. 3. Develop your own thought process. 4. Make investment decisions independently. 5. Making money is more enjoyable than spending it. 6. Maintain frugality. 7. A high IQ isn’t needed—110-120 is enough (Warren Buffett). 8. Don’t try to outsmart the market; focus on the right approach. 9. The market values integrity, independence & patience. 10. Over-smartness often leads to losses. 11. Many have failed in the market—avoid their mistakes. 12. Success comes from buying & holding good businesses. 13. The market isn’t for quick riches—only rare cases succeed fast. 14. Wealth is built long-term; true success takes years. Interesting 2024 Data: DIIs bought Rs.526545.13 cr. while FIIs sold Rs.302434.91 cr. The remaining Rs.224110.22 cr. wasn’t sold by retail investors but by promoters offloading nearly Rs.2 lakh cr. to DIIs in the bull market. Buyers like LIC, insurance firms, MFs & banks absorbed this selling. Exchanges should disclose full cash market data including FII, DII, retail & promoters. The Dollar Index (DXY) measures the US dollar’s value against a basket of six currencies: Euro (57%), Japanese Yen (13.6%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), British Pound (11.9%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%). A reading of 107 means the USD is 7% more expensive while 90 indicates it’s 10% cheaper. Historically, the index peaked at 165 in 1984 and hit a low of 70 in 2007 and is now trading at 107.9. It is influenced by macroeconomic factors like inflation and growth in the countries of the basket. Impact on Markets: 1. Stock Market – A falling Dollar Index strengthens the rupee, attracting FII inflows and boosting stock markets. 2. Metal Prices – The Dollar Index and gold prices move inversely; a rising index generally leads to falling gold prices. 3. Fuel Prices – A higher Dollar Index raises crude oil prices, increasing India’s import costs and widening the current account deficit. 4. Dollar-Denominated Debt – Stronger dollars raise repayment costs for Indian companies with dollar-denominated debt affecting profitability. As per market grapevine, the recent brutal fall in small/midcaps/SME stocks is due to inflated valuations and modest financials, triggering a sell-off. Retail investors must check fundamentals, valuations and P/E ratios before investing in a bull market and avoid buying based on speculative stories circulating in media. As per market grapevine, retail investors are to blame for giving an easy exit to FIIs, operators and promoters.Margin selling and panic unwinding occur when prices fall but during rises, valuation and fundamentals are overlooked.Weak-handed leveraged position holders are getting punished, highlighting the importance of valuations and P/E ratios. Retailers should avoid repeating the same mistakes in 2025-26. As per market veteran, the brutal correction in small and midcaps was driven by inflated valuations with most SME stocks still trading at unrealistic valuations. Investors should focus on stocks with strong earnings visibility, decent balance sheets and reasonable valuations. As per market veteran, EMAAR which built the iconic Burj Khalifa, Dubai Mall, Dubai Downtown etc trades at a P/E of 8-10x whereas many Indian smaller constructions and infra stocks trades at a bloated P/E ratio of 40 to 125x.