Tradepoint21
Tradepoint21
February 17, 2025 at 02:47 AM
*SNIPPETS FROM VERY POPULAR MONEY TIMES TALK - 15th February 2025* *As per astrology view,* some important turning dates are 17, 21, 24, 27 February 2025 with limited chances of a broad-based rally this year. *A South Indian astrologer predicts* market stability post- Maha Kumbh on 26th February 2025 with a bearish sentiment possibly turning bullish/consolidated. *Stay cautious as* unexpected market swings due to global events including tweets from Donald Trump may cause sharp gaps. *Avoid overtrading, heavy investments and margin funding for the next four years to protect capital.* *Tariff war impact will be clear only post Q1FY26 results in July 2025.* Until then, markets may stay in consolidation with a sell-on-rise sentiment. *As per market veteran,* even if Nifty crosses 25000 in FY25-26, your stocks may not rise. Invest wisely, check fundamentals, PE, EPS, growth prospects and valuations. *Avoid manipulated rosy stories in media. Repeating past mistakes in a bull run can wipe out the capital.* *As per market veteran Sunil Singhania*, Indian markets aren't cheap even after corrections, though the fall may slow. A V-shaped recovery is unlikely; *expect a W-shape in select stocks.* *ALERT: As per market grapevine,* most SME stocks remain overpriced and trade at PE of 30-90x despite corrections. With the Nifty PE around 19x such valuations are unsustainable *and sharp corrections are likely by March-end.* *As per market grapevine,* brutal selling in small/midcaps/SME stocks is due to inexperienced retail investors and fund managers overpaying in markets or QIPs. *Over 3200+ fund managers have less than three years of experience.* Many QIP stocks from the past 7-9 months are now 30-60% below the issue price. Shift investments to reputed hybrid, multi-asset, or large-cap funds managed by experts with 10-15 years of experience. *As per market veteran,* post-COVID, markets surged with many stocks rising 5-20×, leading to unrealistic CAGR expectations. Investors went all-in on equity, ignoring FDs, gold and silver. *Now, as gold and silver hit new highs, the importance of diversification is clear.* *Indian housewives, the best long-term investors,* have accumulated 25,000 tonnes of gold, now worth USD 1 trillion as per World Gold Council (WGC). *As per market grapevine,* SIP cancellations exceeded new registrations in Jan 2025, with a stopping-to-registered ratio crossing 100% for the first time. *If the market doesn’t stabilize,* redemptions may rise, shifting funds to Hybrid-Multi Asset/Large Cap funds managed by experienced professionals. *Market veterans note that prominent HNIs,* including Jhunjhunwala, Kacholia, and Kedia, saw portfolio declines of up to 50%. However, their low-cost holdings keep them in profit unlike less experienced fund managers and retailers who entered at high valuations and now face 30-70% erosion. *Recent QIPs have seen significant corrections,* with examples like HCC, which issued QIP at Rs.43 but now trades at Rs.26. Many QIPs from 2024, worth Rs.1,48,000 cr., have crashed. *As per market grapevine,* SME stocks have not witnessed the same level of correction as small/midcaps but still trade at high PEs (30-90x). *A sharp correction in SME stocks is possible by March-end.* *FII outflows remain high* with Rs.29,155 cr. sold in February till 14th, following Rs.87,373 cr. in Jan 2025. Since 27th Sept 2024, FIIs have offloaded Rs.3,02,747 cr. Market grapevine suggests *government intervention on taxes may be needed to slow the outflows.* *Nifty may see further decline or a 5-7 month consolidation* as key indicators near a breakdown. Market cap to GDP at 114 is high, and 2025-26 favors accumulating quality stocks. Bulls may get active above 23633, while support is at 22112; a break could lead to 21784. *Every rise is an exit until FII selling halts.* *Fiberweb (India)* posted 167% higher PAT of Rs.9.99 cr. in 9M v/s. HNIs hold 15.81%. Stock available at attractive valuations around Rs.44 v/s its 52-week high of Rs.66. *QIP Alert:* 2024 saw Rs.1.41 lakh cr. raised via QIPs, the highest in 11 years, yet many trade 30-60% below issue price, raising doubts about fund managers’ competence. As per market grapevine, SEBI should enforce stricter norms on overvalued QIPs and IPOs. *SME Stock Bubble:* Australian Premium Solar trades at a PE of 152x, with many SMEs at 30-150x. With Nifty struggling at 20.5x PE, such valuations seem unsustainable, risking a major sell-off. Avoid high PE stocks amid 2025 uncertainty. *Sandur Manganese* posted 1414% higher PAT of Rs.137.3 cr. revenue grew 522% to Rs.951 cr., and EBITDA soared 1282% to Rs.240 cr. Its margins expanded to 25.27% and share looks attractive at Rs.345 vs. 52-week high of Rs.636. As per market grapevine investors can concentrate on *Dynemic Products, Fiberweb (India), Fredun Pharma, Gujarat Intrux, Pennar Industries, Resonance Specialities, SNL Bearings, Somi Conveyor Beltings, Texmo Pipes & Products, Tyche Industries, Zenith Fibers* offer medium-term potential. Stay in the game. *Fredun Pharma* ramped up production 2.9x, targeting 300% growth in Q1FY26. Launched a pet foods plant & Fredna Vet Diagnostics, India's first pet diagnostic center with a CBCT machine. Strong growth ahead. *Fiberweb (India)* expands into Spunlace Fabrics with biodegradable materials backed by Rs.200 cr. fundraise. Keep radar. *Somi Conveyor Beltings* posted 95% higher Q3 PAT of Rs.1.48 cr. vs. Rs. 0.76 cr. in Q3FY24. If available in the Rs.145-155 range, it looks attractive against its 52-week high of Rs.236. *Resonance Specialities*, posted 53% higher PAT at Rs.3.48 cr. in 9MFY25. Share looks attractive at Rs.81 v/s its 52-week high of Rs.132. *Pennar Industries* posted 20% higher 9M PAT of Rs.83.73 cr. Stock looks attractive in the Rs.135-140 range v/s its 52-week high of Rs.228. *Texmo Pipes & Products'* Q3 PBT zoomed 940% to Rs.5.72 cr. and 9M PAT at Rs.13.05 cr. with an EPS of Rs.4.15. Share at Rs.56+ v/s its 52-week high of Rs.108. If it crosses Rs.70 with volume, it may touch Rs.80-90. *TBZ* rebounded from Rs.170 to Rs.195 despite market weakness. With strong Q3 numbers and a P/E of 10x, it looks attractive. Small and mid-caps are down 50% from their peak. *Great buying opportunity for quality stocks with a medium-term view.* *Fiberweb India* 9MFY25 NP zoomed 167% YoY. *Money Times Talk is part of oldest, reputed & very popular financial weekly 'Money Times' publication.* *Do your due diligence before taking any investment/trading decision.*

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