
GTA FINANCIAL SERVICES ( TARUN KHANDELWAL)
February 10, 2025 at 08:11 AM
News & Impact
· Focus Today – US President Trump to announce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports and also stated that he would unveil reciprocal tariffs on nations that impose taxes on US imports later in the week. RBI cut interest rate by 25bps on Friday and FYS 26 GDP growth TGT at 6.7% – in line with expecattionAlkem Ltd, M&M, Mazagoan Dock, Century Ply, FSL announced impressive Q3 result. Results Today – Varun Beverages, Grasim, Eicher Motors, Apollo Industries, Patanjali Foods, CRISIL, National Aluminium, Escorts Kubota, Bata India, Sun Pharma, MTAR Tech, EIH Associated Hotels. .Focus on major stocks - M&M, Mazagon Dock, Century Plyboards
· Market outlook Today – Market is expected to open on a weak note due to concerns over escalating global trade tensions between the U.S., China and other countries, continued selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), and a record high USD/INR exchange rate, which may dampen market sentiment. Asian markets are showing mixed reactions following U.S. President Donald Trump's announced to impose of a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, a move that has led to declines in metal prices. On Friday, the U.S. market fell by 1% after President Trump stated that he would unveil reciprocal tariffs on nations that impose taxes on U.S. imports later this week, alongside mixed economic data. The GIFT Nifty declined by 50 points, while U.S. Index Futures rose up to 0.5% ahead of the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data this week, along with strong quarterly results. In the domestic market, higher intra-day volatility is anticipated due to concerns over the global trade war. However, the ruling party's victory in the Delhi assembly elections after 27 years, hope of favourable outcome between US President and Indian Prime minister to visit in US on 12th Feb, the Finance Minister's announcement of zero tax up to Rs 12 lakh under the new tax regime, and the Reserve Bank of India's 25 basis points interest rate cut to 6.25% are expected to support market sentiment. Additionally, Q3 results have been better than anticipated, with sectors such as auto, pharma, realty, banks, and mid-cap IT reporting strong performances. Investors can expect stock and sector-specific actions in the market, as global market volatility may impact the domestic market. Profit booking on metal stocks is anticipated following President Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports.
· US market – US market .declined 1% on Friday as concern of trade-war escalation after the President Trump indicated Friday that next week he would reveal? plans for reciprocal tariffs. Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, the Cboe Volatility Index, also known by its ticker VIX climbed 7% Friday to 16.54 as details of the looming tariffs remained uncertain. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite decline 1% each. Moreover, worried about the potential impacts of US tariffs on inflation didn’t get much relief from economic data that only underscored concerns over price pressures, reinforcing speculation the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut interest rates. Equities came under pressure after data showed a slide in consumer sentiment amid concern over inflation. Mixed jobs figures highlighted a moderating — yet healthy — labor market, and a jump in wages.
· Asian Market – Asian markets are witnessing mixed bag after the US President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports and also stated that he would unveil reciprocal tariffs on nations that impose taxes on US imports later in the week.
· European Market – European stocks snapped a three-day winning streak on the threat of more tariffs from President Donald Trump and mixed bag of US economy data indicating higher inflation to delay rate cut by the US Fed. UK, France and Germany Index declined nearly 0.5% each.
· Gold –Gold pared gains after climbing to a new all-time high OF $2887/ounce as the dollar pushed higher on uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s plans to impose tariffs. Gold gained marginally to $2862/ounce
· Brent Crude - Oil prices fell 1% to $74/bbl as traders ricocheted between price support from U.S. sanctions on Iran crude exports and fears a renewed trade war with China and threatened tariffs would impact demand.
· Previous Day Market Summary – Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty dropped for the third consecutive session after the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate cut, the first in nearly five years, failed to boost market sentiment. The RBI reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%. While rate cuts generally lift sentiment, this move did not have much impact as the reduction was already factored in. Additionally, the RBI maintained a "neutral" monetary stance and set the FY26 inflation target at 4.2% and GDP growth forecast at 6.7%, both in line with expectations. As a result, the Sensex fell 197 points, or 0.3%, to close at 77,860, while the Nifty dropped 43 points, or 0.2%, to end at 23,559. FIIs were net sellers Rs470cr while DIIs were net buyers Rs454cr.
· Nifty Technical Level – Nifty formed a bearish candle on daily frame with longer lower shadow indicating smart pullback from support zones. It formed a bullish candle on weekly frame and has been making higher highs from the last three weeks. Now it has to hold above 23500 zones for an up move towards 23750 then 23900 zones whereas supports are placed at 23500 then 23400 zones.
· Bank Nifty Technical Level – Bank Nifty on weekly scale it formed a bullish candle as multiple supports are intact at lower zones. Now it has to hold above 50000 zones for a bounce towards 50500 then 50750 levels while on the downside support is seen at 50000 then 49750 zones
· Brokers Radar – M&M TGT by Bernstein at 3650, M&M TGT by Morgan Stanley at 3675 and CITI TGT at 3680. JP Morgan TGT on Alkem at 5980 and Nomua TGT at 5670. LIC India TGT by JP Morgan at 1115 and Goldman Sachs TGT at 900. Bharti Airtel TGT by HSBC at 1940. Welspun Corp TGT by Philipc Securities at 892. Mr Bector Food TGT by Asian Market at 1750. Investec TGT on Greenply Industries at 402. UBS TGT n Aurobindo Pharma at 1330. CITI TGT on Indus Tower at 490. Goldman Sachs TGT on BSE at 5650 and Jefferies TGT at 5250. CLSA TGT on SBI at 1050 and Bernstein TGT at 900. Nomura TGT on SBI at 1000. Morgan Stanley TGT on SBI AT 865. Morgan Stanley TGT on Britannia at 5157. Nomura TGT on Ramco Cement at 1000.
· Actionable BUY – M&M, Mazagon Dock, Century Plyboards, BEL, Va- Tech, NHPC
· New IPO -. Ajax Engineering: The initial public offering will be open for subscription from Feb 10 to Feb 12, 2025. The total issue size stands at Rs 1,269.35 crore and consists entirely of an offer for sale. The price band is set between Rs 599 to Rs 629 per share.
· Results – Varun Beverages, Grasim, Eicher Motors, Apollo Industries, Patanjali Foods, CRISIL, National Aluminium, Escorts Kubota, Gillette, Signature Global, Bata India, HBL Engineering, Saregama, Force Motors, Engineers India, GSFC, PNC Infratech, Ashoka Buildcon, TVSS, Sun Pharma, MTAR Tech, EIH Associated Hotels
· Events Today – Union Budget 2025-2026 approval to be present today in the Parliament.
· Corporate Action – Aster DM Healthcare Interim Dividend Rs 4, Indian Toner & Developers Interim Dividend Rs 4.5.
· Global Data Today – US – 1-year Inflation Expectations,
· Market Summary on Stocks News – Alkem Ltd, M&M, Mazagoan Dock, Century Ply, FSL announced impressive Q3 results. Hero MotoCorp CFO says Tax Cuts to Drive Two-Wheeler Demand - India remains net importer of steel in Apr-Jan; imports surge over 20% to 8 MT. Raymond Signs Rs 1,800 Crore Residential Project Deal in Mumbai. Kolte-Patil Developers inks pact for 22-acre joint development in Pune.
· US President Trump to announce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports…Trump said that the new tariffs on steel and aluminium imports would apply to all countries. - President Donald Trump has announced that he will impose a 25 per cent tariff on all steel and aluminium imports, with details expected on Monday. One on Sunday, Trump confirmed that the new tariffs would apply to all countries but did not specify when they would take effect, reports news agency Bloomberg. The president also stated that he would unveil reciprocal tariffs on nations that impose taxes on US imports later in the week. These additional tariffs are expected to follow shortly after their announcement - – Not yet any impact in India
· Solar Industries – Company has signed a contract worth Rs 6084cr with the Ministry of Defense to supply defense products, and has also been nominated by the DRDO as the production agency for all variations of the Pinaka Rocket System – Positive
· VA Tech Wabag – Company secures Rs 3,251 crore order in Saudi Arabia. VA Tech Wabag has secured a consortium order worth Rs 3,251 Crores for the construction of a 200 MLD independent sewage treatment plant in Riyadh, as part of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030.15
· Bharat Electronics – Company won orders worth ₹962 crore, including ₹610 crore Indian Navy deal
· BHEL - Hitachi Energy India Ltd and Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) has won a mega contract worth Rs8000cr from Adani Energy Solutions Ltd (AESL) to build the Rajasthan HVDC transmission project.
· JSW Energy – Company has signed a renewable energy power purchase agreement with Amazon for 180 MW of wind power projects. – Positive
· Life Insurance Corp: The company has extended Sunil Agrawal's term as chief financial officer until March 2026. – long term positive
· L&T Finance: The company has approved the acquisition of Paul Merchants Finance's gold loan business through a slump sale for Rs 537 crore. - positive
· Waaree Energies: The company has commenced operations at its 1.4 GW solar cell manufacturing facility in Gujarat.- positive
· Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail: The company has entered into a pact with Fidelity for subscription of 3.95 crore shares of the company - positive
· Rattanindia Enterprises: Jayant Khosla resigns as the chief executive officer of the company. – avoid
· Popular Vehicles and Services: The unit has received a Letter of Intent to establish a 3S facility for offering JLR vehicles in Nagpur, with operations set to commence in second half of fiscal 2026. Additionally, another unit of the company has received an LOI to establish an Ather Space 3.0 in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala.- positive
· Firstsource Solutions: The board has approved the execution of a share purchase agreement with Amrit Khandelwal and Akshay Dubey of Accunai India Services to acquire 100% ownership in AccunAI for a consideration of Rs 8.1 crore.- positive
· Rail Vikas Nigam: The company has emerged as the lowest bidder for railway project worth Rs 211 crore. - positive
· Hyundai Motor India: The company launched new variants and feature upgrades for EXTER and AURA models. - positive
· Tejas Networks: The company has collaborated with NEC Corp. on 5G technology. The investment involves Rs 525 crore, payable over the next year.- positive
· Raymond – Company has signed a Joint Development Agreement (JDA) for a residential project in the prime location of Mahim West, Mumbai. This is Raymond’s second residential project in the area, with an estimated revenue potential of Rs 1,800 crore. The Mahim West development is the company’s fifth project outside Thane. – Positive
· Gensol Engineering – company has been awarded a contract by a renowned public sector undertaking for the development of a 245 MW Solar PV Project at the prestigious Khavda RE Power Park in Gujarat. This contract, valued at approximately Rs 967.98 crore – Positive
· Kolte Patil Developers – Company has entered into a joint development agreement for a residential-led mixed-use project on a 22-acre land parcel along Pune’s Sinhagad Road. The project is planned to have a total potential saleable area of 5 million sq ft and an estimated Gross Developable Value (GDV) of Rs 4,000 crore. – Positive
· Infibeam Avenues – Company has bagged a Third-Party Application Provider (TPAP) license for its digital payment platform RediffPay. This marks Infibeam's entry into the digital payments sector. The company had applied for the TPAP license after acquiring a controlling stake in Rediff, in 2024. – positive weak fundamental is concern – Positive
· Hudco – Company said that it will enter private and public sector in Infra Financing – Long term Positive
· Garware Hi-Tech Films – Company announced that it will setting up a TPU Extrusion Plant At Waluj, worth Rs118cr – Positive
· RBI Credit Policy outcome - Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 6.25% for the first time in nearly five years. The committee also decided to keep the monetary stance "neutral". RBI announced FY25 Inflation target at 4.8% while FY26 inflation target at 4.2%. RBI expects economic growth in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 of the next fiscal year starting April 1 at 6.7%, 7%, 6.5% and 6.5%, respectively. – Positive
· Trent – Company will sell its 29 per cent share held in Massimo Dutti India to its majority JV partner Grupo Massimo Dutti, Spain for a consideration of Rs20.75 crore. – Positive
· Hero Motorcorp - Income tax cuts announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the federal budget will help drive demand for motorcycles and scooters, Hero MotoCorp Chief Finance Officer Vivek Anand said on an investor call. – Positive
· Max India – Company has received board approval to inject an additional up to Rs219cr rupees in two of its wholly-owned subsidiary companies. The healthcare services provider plans to invest up to 7Rs1cr Antara Senior Living and up to Rs148cr in Antara Assisted Care Services by subscribing to new equity or preference shares under rights issues or through inter-corporate deposits in one or more tranches during fiscal year
· ending March 31, 2026. – Positive
· Aurobindo Pharma - US Food Drug Administration has classified Aurobindo Pharma's Telangana-based API manufacturing facility as "Voluntary Action Indicated" following an inspection from September 23-27, 2024. – Positive
· Solaria Active Pharma - Board approved the incorporation of wholly owned subsidiary in relation to proposed demerger of the CRAMS and Polymers Business into an independent listed entity.. – Positive
· Cummins India - Company has approved the sale of its entire 100% stake in its wholly-owned subsidiary, Cummins Sales and Service Private Limited (CSSPL), to PAL SVAM Power Solutions for Rs 56.5 crore. – Positive
· Alkem Labs – Company announced that it intends to acquire 100% of share capital of M/s. Bombay Ortho Industries worth Rs147cr – Positive
· LIC India - Total annual premium equivalent down 24% to Rs 9,950 crore versus Rs 13,162 crore. Value of new business down 27% at Rs 1,926 crore versus Rs 2,634 crore. VNB margin up 410 basis points to 19.36% versus 15.3% (QoQ).
· VA Tech Wabag Q3 (YoY) – Stable Ebitda and Ebitda margin - Revenue up 15.1% (YoY) to Rs 811 crore, Ebitda up 1.5% (YoY) to Rs 100 crore, Ebitda margin to 12.4% versus 14.04%(YoY). Net profit up 11.6% (YoY) to Rs 70 crore
· Oil India Q3 inline line with expectation Ebitda and Ebitda margin. Revenue down 5.1% (QoQ) to Rs 5,239.58 crore – expectation Rs5340cr. Net profit down 33%(QoQ) to Rs 1,221.80 crore – expectation Rs1400cr, Ebitda down 2% (QoQ) to Rs 2,132.71 crore – expectation Rs2200cr and Ebitda margin to 40.7% versus 41.6% (QoQ) – expectation 41.2%
· Hindustan Foods announced stable Q3 results. Revenue up 20.7% (YoY) to Rs 880 crore, Ebitda up 28.9% (YoY) to Rs 73 crore. Ebitda margin to 8.3% versus 7.9% (YoY). Net profit up 30.2% (YoY) to Rs 29 crore
· Happy Forgings Q3 – Company reported impressive Ebitda and Ebitda margin Revenue up 3.6% to Rs 354 crore (YoY) . Ebitda up 6.6% (YoY) to Rs 101.5 crore, Ebitda margin to 28.6% versus 27.8% (YoY). Net profit up 11.5% (YoY) to Rs 65 crore
· Fortis Healthcare Q3 – inline with Bloomberg expectation - Revenue up 14.8% (YoY) to Rs 1,928 crore – Bloomberg expecattion Rs1884cr, Ebitda up 32.1% (YoY) to Rs 375 crore – expectation Rs370.5cr, Ebitda margin to 19.5% versus 16.9% (YoY) – expectation 19.7%. Net profit up 84.1% (YoY) to Rs 248 crore – Bloomberg expecation Rs178cr
· Archean Chemical Industries Q3 – Lower than Bloomberg expecattion Ebitda while Ebitda margin marginally above expecattion - Revenue down 41.3% (YoY) to Rs 242 crore - Bloomberg expecattion Rs287cr, Ebitda down 45% (YoY) to Rs 80 crore - Bloomberg expecattion Rs91, Ebitda margin to 32.9% versus 35.2% (YoY) – expectation 31.7%. Net profit down 52.7% (YoY) to Rs 48 crore - Bloomberg expecattion Rs58.1
· NHPC Q3 – Ebitda and Ebitda margin above Bloomberg expectation - Revenue up 11.3% (YoY) to Rs 2,287 crore – Bloomberg expectation Rs2246cr, Ebitda up 36% (YoY) to Rs 1,021 crore – expectation Rs975, Ebitda margin to 44.7% versus 36.6% (YoY) – expectation 43.41%. Net profit down 52% (YoY) to Rs 231 crore – expectation Rs633cr
· Astra Microwave Q3 First Cut – Ebitda and Ebitda margin lower than Bloomberg expectation Revenue up 11.9% (YoY) to Rs 258 crore – Bloomberg Expectation Rs288cr. Ebitda up 15.2% (YoY) to Rs 76.2 crore – expectation Rs89cr. Ebitda margin to 29.5% versus 28.6% (YoY) – expectation 30.9%. Net profit up 9.3% (YoY) to Rs 47.4 crore – expectation Rs58.8cr
· Gujarat State Petronet Q3 – inline with expected Ebitda and Ebitda margin- Revenue up 0.95% (QoQ) to Rs 260.43 – expectation Rs250.4cr, Ebitda down 0.23% (QoQ) to Rs 192.51 crore – expecattion Rs194cr, Ebitda margin at 73.92% versus 74.79% (QoQ) – expecattion 77.5%. Net profit down 65.17% (QoQ) to Rs 135.58 crore – Expectation Rs147.9cr
· Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Q3 FY25 annonced Ebitda and Ebitda Margin Better than expected. Net Profit Rs807cr (up 29% YoY) – Bloomberg expectation Rs705cr. Revenue Rs3143cr (up 33% YoY) – Bloomberg expectation Rs3094cr. Ebitda Rs817cr (up 51.4% YoY) – Bloomberg expectation Rs642cr and Ebitda Margin 26% vs 23% YoY – Bloomberg expectation 21%
· VST Industries Q3 FY25 weak results - Net Profit Rs136.3cr, Revenue R367.2scr (up 1.3% YoY), Ebitda Rs38.4cr (down 6% YoY) and Ebitda Margin 18.6% vs 20.1% YoY
· Ola Electric Q3 FY25 weak results - Net Loss Rs564cr vs Loss Rs367cr, Revenue Rs1045cr (down 19.4% YoY) and Ebitda Rs460cr vs Loss Rs301cr
· Alkem Labs Q3 FY25 – Better than expected Ebitda and Ebitda margin - Net Profit Rs626cr (up 5.2% YoY) – expectation Rs550cr, Revenue Rs3374.2cr (up 1.5% YoY) – expectation Rs3310cr, Ebitda Rs759cr (up 7.3% YoY) – expectation Rs660cr and Ebitda Margin 22.3% vs 21.3% YoY – expectation 20%
· Mahindra & Mahindra Q3 FY25 – Consolidated Results Update – Both Ebitda and Ebitda margin inline with expectation - Net Profit Rs2964cr (up 20.8% YoY) – expectation Rs3200cr, Revenue Rs30538cr (up 19.6% YoY) – expectation Rs31200cr, Ebitda Rs4384cr (35.5% YoY) – expectation Rs4400cr, Ebitda Margin 14.4% vs 12.8 % YoY – expectation 14.2% and Other Income Rs265cr (down 32% YoY) – expectation Rs600cr.
· Century Plyboards Q3 FY25 –Ebitda and Ebitda Margin above Bloomberg expectation - Net Profit Rs58.4cr (down 7.3% YoY) – Bloomberg expectation Rs54.56cr, Revenue Rs1140cr (up 22% YoY) – Bloomberg expectation Rs1100cr, Ebitda Rs129.5c