*The Week That Was @ 7:30 AM – Saturday, March 1st 2025* February 24th to February 28th 2025. # Panic-selling gripped Dalal Street as Nifty was seen collapsing and so did bulls’ confidence. The dismal trading week had nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat. The negative takeaway was that Nifty’s dramatic selloff brought the benchmark near to the psychological 22000 mark. Nifty (-2.94%, 22125) Sensex (-2.81%, 73198) # In the week gone by, volatility reigned supreme on Dalal Street as investors’ confidence was rattled. We say so because; 1) Nifty ended 5.55% lower in February. 2) Nifty recorded its worst February decline since the COVID-19 pandemic, falling 5.55%. (Please note, Nifty had plunged 6.4% in February 2020, just before the nationwide lockdown due to COVID-19). 3) February marked Nifty's fifth straight monthly fall, an occurrence which was last seen in 1996. 4) From its all-time highs, the Sensex has fallen by 15%, and the Nifty is down by 16%. 5) The Nifty Mid-cap 100 index has plunged 22% lower. 6) The Nifty Small-cap index crashed 26% lower from it's all-time-high. # Bottom-line: Pessimism was all across Dalal Street and the negative takeaway was that Nifty’s future outlook was as clear as mud and also considered murky. Weekly Recap: Instruments LTP Weekly % Change Nifty 22125 (-2.94%) Sensex 73198 (-2.81%) Bank Nifty 48345 (-1.30%) Nifty Midcap 14143 (-4.26%) India VIX 13.91 (-4.27%) DowJones 43841 +0.95% Nasdaq 20884 (-3.38%) Bovespa 122799 (-3.41%) Crude Oil 69.70 (-0.99%) Gold 2841 (-3.18%) Silver 31.01 (-4.66%) USD/INR 87.40 +0.87% # Here are how indices performed in the week gone by: 1) Nifty ended lower for the 3rd straight week, ending the week, down 2.94%. Technically speaking, Nifty continues to trade way below its 200 DMA at 24073 mark with the sequence of lower high/low intact on daily/weekly /monthly time frames. Confirmation of strength only above Nifty’s biggest hurdles at 24073 mark. 2) Bank Nifty was mirroring Nifty’s sluggish action, ending 1.30% lower at 48345 level. 3) Nifty Private Bank index inched 1.03% lower while Nifty PSU Bank index ended 5.33% lower on weekly basis. 4) The broader markets were major underperformers as the Nifty Mid-cap 100 index dropped 4.26% lower while the Nifty Small-cap index plunged 5.99%. Bullish Sectors: None Bearish Sectors: Nifty IT (-7.96%) Nifty Media (-7.07%) Nifty PSE Index (-5.90%) Nifty Reality (-5.52%) Nifty Energy (-4.98%) Nifty Oil & Gas (-4.80%) Nifty Auto Index (-4.68%) Nifty Metal (-4.54%) Nifty Infra Index (-4.28%) Nifty Pharma (-2.81%) Nifty FMCG Index (-2.7%) STOCK SPECIFIC NEWS: 1) Coal India (-0.16%) was seen outperforming after the introduction of "Singrauli Punarasthapan Charge" of ₹300 per tonne across all mines by Coal India’s (CIL) subsidiary Northern Coalfields (NCL) from May 1 which is expected to drive an estimated additional revenue of ₹3,880 crore. 2) Granules India (-9.19%) dropped after receiving a Warning Letter from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its Gagillapur facility, following an inspection conducted in August 2024. 3) IndiGo (-0.74%) was relatively outperforming on reporting record highest market share as Air India continues to slip after merger in January. Indigo recorded a domestic market share of 65.2%, which is the highest market share for the airline in history. 4) The stock price of Polycab (-19%) tumbled, Havells India (-6.5%), KEI Industries (-20%) while those of Finolex Cables (-11%) after UltraTech Cement announced that it proposes to extend its presence in the construction value chain with a foray into the wires and cables segment through a capex of ₹1,800 crore over a two-year period. UltraTech Cement too plunged 9.2% after the announcement. # In the week gone by, notable gainers amongst Nifty 50 were: SHRIRAM FIN +5.5% HDFC BANK 2.36% BAJAJ FINANCE +1.59% AXIS BANK 0.65% # And the losers were: TECH MAH (-9.8%) WIPRO (-9.37%) ULTRATECH (-9.22%) TCS (-8%) TATA MOTORS (-7.81%) # What’s Next for Nifty? Free fall or Dead cat bounce or Robust Rally Ahead? It must be so frustrating for the bulls’ camp as the ongoing pessimism has wiped out over Rs 90 lakh crore in investor wealth from since September 2024, when Nifty hit an all-time high of 26,277.35. Well, fear is currently driving investor behavior, leading to sharp declines in even the strongest stocks. But history tells us that this turmoil won’t last forever, and that fundamentals will win over time. We will continue to spy with one big eye on any reversal signals and stay focused on high-quality opportunities that can weather any severe market turbulence... Meanwhile, investors become increasingly alarmed about: 1) This year, FIIs have been buyers only in 3-trading sessions. 2) The total FIIs selling has crossed over 145804 crore this CY 2025. 3) Total FIIs selling is about to cross over 332000 crore since September 27, the day Nifty hit an all-time-high at 26277.35. 4) Meanwhile, this FY25, FIIs have already net sold to the tune of Rupees 404195 crores. # The two negative takeaway from last week’s trade: 1) Bank Nifty (-1.30%) ended on a negative note and was mirroring Nifty’s sluggish action as ICICI Bank (-2.34%) and SBI (-4.6%) fell hard. 2) Nifty IT index (-7.96%) plunged as stocks like INFY (-7%) LTI Mindtree (-11.94%), Tech Mahindra (-9.8%) TCS (-8%) and Coforge (-1.79%) plunged also amidst uncertainty over Trump tariffs. # Technically, confirmation of strength only above Nifty’s biggest hurdles at 24073 mark which is also the benchmark’s 200 DMA. Until, Nifty 24073 is a resistance, downside risk on Nifty seen at 22000 and then at 21281 mark (June 4th low). Interweek hurdles at 22900 mark. # The biggest headwinds in the near term continues to be: 1) President Donald Trump said planned tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China will take effect on March 4. 2) The biggest risk could be the sticky inflation in the US. 3) Wall Street ended sharply higher in Friday’s trade despite a tense meeting in the Oval Office between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, raising concerns over escalating geopolitical risks. 4) Fed January minutes were mostly seen reinforcing cautious approach to rate cuts this year. 5) Chinese stocks are in limelight and are outperforming in the backdrop of positive sentiments from China’s technological sector, esp. Deep Seek. 6) FIIs capital flows are diverting away from Emerging Markets to Chinese and European stocks which have significantly lower valuations. 7) Uninspiring Q3 corporate India’s earnings and stretched valuations. 8) India's slowing economic growth. (India's economy expanded by 6.2% in the December quarter, up from a revised 5.6% growth in the previous quarter but below market forecasts of 6.3%). 9) The weakness in the Indian rupee. # Long story short: Nifty still has nowhere to go but down… *Disclaimer/ Disclosure:* The investments & trading ideas recommended in the market analysis, research reports, etc. may not be suitable for all investors. This article or data points does not construe investment advice as stock market investments are subject to market risks so please refer to your financial consultant advice before Investing or trading. All information is a point of view, and is for educational, Learning and informational use only. 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