So let's look at the chronology of events. - Vance says on Thursday that the conflict is none of our business - clearly, something changes on Friday or Saturday. As per the CNN it was Friday morning (US time) that they got this shocking piece of intelligence which forces them to get involved - as per cnn, JDV calls up Modi at 930 PM india time warning about the risks of escalation - BUT then we had a massive escalation from India post midnight. If CNN account is true, why did India escalate? Was it to show its dominance before the conflict ended? - we get reports of PAF entering srinagar around 8 AM and dpgfights with IAF. Shiv Aroor talks confidently of two PAF birds being shot down and states officials are on their way to see the debris. And then that story is buried. - Even when the ceasefire is announced, india makes the claim it was Pak which reached out and this was not disputed - Rubio's post about wide ranging talks is dismissed by India. Which means, the CNN report that US wasn't directly involved in the talks was possibly right. - and then we have the rather tepid response from MEA to ceasefire violation while Pak PM claims victory. That looks pretty bad optically. If India backed out due to nuclear threat, then the idea of imposing costs for future terror actions goes out of the window. In which case, we have reached a deadend with our military strategy :( AIM claimed that India would treat any future terror attack as an act of war something, but that is BS and India will never take that stance officially if they backed out today due to the nuclear threat.