*Indo-Pakistan Relations: Key Takeaways from the Recent Escalation/Skirmish* 1. India overestimated itself and underestimated Pakistan, therefore, the response to Pehalgam was knee-jerk and against the norms of engagement between two nuclear-capable states. 2. Pakistan successfully deterred India with conventional weapons under the nuclear umbrella. 3. (lesson) Any aggression by India will face a response quid pro quo plus from Pakistan – the military edge of India neutralized, full credit to the Pak Air Force. 4. Re-hyphenation of India-Pakistan in foreign capitals. 5. 6. Kashmir internationalized, which was once an international issue, reduced a bilateral issue b/w India and Pakistan after the Shimla agreement, and internal issue after the revocation of Article 370 by the Modi government in 2019. 7. Kashmir as a nuclear flash point (emphasized) 8. Significant loss of Indian prestige in foreign capitals – dehyphenation of India-China and rehyphenation of India-Pakistan (a demotion of India – that’s why India has sent delegations to the foreign capitals for damage control – follow Shashi Tharoor & Co.) 9. Pakistan didn’t provoke the crisis rather responded in defence. 10. Underscores that the nuclear deterrence is at variance with the Cold War model – we still have the possibility of military confrontation (rationality and irrationality). 11. Possibility of future conflict under nuclear hangover. 12. South Asia witnessed an intense weapon use in 21st century, and the lethality will be even severe than the recent episode. 13. For Modi, this is a serious strategic setback. He was trapped in a “commitment trap’ and ‘narrative trap’ and would face serious losses in domestic politics. 14. India got a reality check of its great power ambitions and now feels isolated as friendless. Going with Israel has a price that Modi’s India paid. As this is against the soft image of Secular and Democratic India. 15. The water Issue has become a ticking bomb that can trigger a major war in the near future. 16. Indi’s involvement in transnational terrorism - killing in Pakistan and Canada resulted in the loss of diplomatic support. 17. South Asia as testing ground – Chinese plate forms and systems Vs. Western/Israel systems. 18. Pakistan has to stay vigilant for future ventures from the Indian side. 19. India could not garner international support; Pakistan did. The relative gain of Pakistan vs. India, which disturbed India. *Future Scenarios* 1. India would do it again 2. India would go for water disruption, destined to flow towards Pakistan. 3. India would support Terror groups to make a case against Pakistan. 4. India would accelerate diplomatic efforts against Pakistan on international fronts – UNSC. 5. Dedicate efforts to drag Pakistan into the FATF Grey List. 6. Appropriate a terror event with alleged involvement of people with Pakistani passports – be they Afghans or Indians. But to portray them as Pakistanis to deprive Pakistan of European support. 7. Using Pakistani diaspora against Pakistan – Balochistan or KP-related issues. (Afghans would help them) 8. Investing in Baloch dissidence – recognizing a Balochistan government in exile. *The Most Important Issues that would cloud the future between India and Pakistan*. 1 - Indus Water Treaty 2 - Terrorism 3 - Kashmir *Regional Implications and Policy Options*. 1. This lack of support from the US to India is temporary; the USA will continue to look towards India for the China factor in the Indo-Pacific region. 2. Pakistan should not take the Kashmir mediation stance of the USA very seriously. India would counter it in the next few months. 3. Pakistan should maintain a dignified line with the USA, and it should not offer its mineral wealth to appease the USA. 4. Pakistan is a key player in the Indo-Chinese and US-China rivalry – it must exploit it. 5. China is a key player in South Asian and Asian politics. Chinese influence has grown in Asian affairs. 6. An Axis is emerging based on economic connectivity and counter terrorism: BRI, CPEC, Eurasian economics. See Pak-China-Afghanistan, Pak-Russia, China-Russia economic dynamics. Also see Pakistan, Iran, Turkiye and Azebijan etc. 7. Pakistan is an important player, and it should reach Russia (Pakistan has already), but emphasis added, asking them not to alter the power asymmetry in South Asia by supporting. When needed, Pakistan should use the China factor to persuade Russia to do so. 8. Pakistan should also reach Africa and the coastline of the Indian Ocean, where we have invested recently through diplomatic offices. 9. Pakistan should engage Afghanistan and the Middle East as a peace seeker and builder, and a regional stabilizer, to deprive India of the strategic space. Engaging with the Middle East and Africa through Pakistan’s ports’ potential will help Pakistan have a say in securing supply lines in the India Ocean. (CPEC will and has enhanced Pakistan’s profile). Good Luck! #copied