
LIVE TRADING SOLUTION
June 11, 2025 at 02:22 PM
*Post CPI*
📉 CPI Overview
• May CPI rose just +0.1% MoM (expected +0.2%); YoY CPI at +2.4%, slightly below forecasts of +2.5% .
• Core CPI also +0.1% MoM and +2.8% YoY, softer than projections .
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💵 Immediate Dollar Reaction
• U.S. Dollar index (DXY) dropped approximately 0.2%–0.4% on the day .
• Treasury yields fell ~4–6 bps, with the 10-year yield dropping to around 4.43% .
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🏦 Implications for the Fed & Market Sentiment
• Softer CPI gives the Fed more room to pause rate increases and potentially consider rate cuts later this year .
• Markets are now pricing in roughly two rate cuts by September, supported by the dovish inflation outlook .
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💡 Conclusive Summary
• Dollar Weakness Confirmed: With inflation softer than expected, the USD is under downward pressure.
• Lower Yields Signal Lower USD Sentiment: Treasury yields falling reinforces the backdrop for a weaker greenback.
• Gold-Friendly Environment (XAU/USD): A softer dollar and dovish Fed outlook boost gold’s appeal in the near term.
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✅ Bottom Line
• CPI Surprise: Cooler inflation — USD and yields dropped.
• Fed Outlook: Opened the door to cuts later this year, reinforcing the U.S. dollar’s weakness.
• Trader Edge: Watch for continued USD softness—favorable for gold and commodity-linked currencies.