*Market Recap: 9–15 June 2025* 🟢 US Inflation and Fed Commentary May CPI showed a YOY 2.4% increase with core inflation at 2.8%, slightly below expectations. 10‑year Treasury yields dipped to 4.41% post-auction . Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed that rates will remain “higher for longer,” with markets pricing rate cuts no sooner than September. Market impact: Equities rallied—Nasdaq +2%, S&P 500 +1%, on lower yields and sticky but easing inflation. 📉 Forex and Bond Market EUR/USD climbed from ~1.0850 to 1.0950 amid cooling U.S. inflation and ECB Fed divergence. USD/JPY slid to ~154 as bond yields softened and risk sentiment improved. DXY traded in a tight range, choppy with mixed USD drivers. 🪙 Gold Breakdown Gold surged from ~$3,325 to $3,433 on 15 June, buoyed by safe-haven flows, fading yields, and Middle East conflict. Analysts warn that momentum could peak, but with risk and conflict continuing, short-term bullish setups remain valid. 🛢 Oil Volatility WTI crude rallied over 10% from ~$64 to ~$75.50. Catalysts included Middle East tensions (Israel‑Iran), and Chinese economic resilience. 🗺️ Stock Market Response Despite geopolitical stress, U.S. equities held up: Dow +0.8%, S&P +0.9%, Nasdaq +1.5% on 16 June. Volatility (VIX) hit the brakes after Pepe’s de-escalation signal. *Market Forecast: 16–22 June 2025* Key Events Ahead US Retail Sales (18 June) A crucial test of consumer health; hot data could dent risk assets and boost USD, while weakness would favor equities and commodities. Fed Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference (18 June) Expect a hold at 4.25–4.50% with guidance on rate path. Any hawkish nuance may lift USD and bond yields, pressuring risk assets; dovish leanings could power further equity and gold gains. China PMI & Trade Data Soft readings could hurt commodity currencies (AUD/NZD/CAD) and oil; stronger numbers may trigger a risk rally. Middle East Geopolitical Risk Watch for flare-ups, escalation might trigger surges in oil and gold while causing equity pullbacks. OPEC+ Output Commentary Any unexpected signal on output or cuts could shift WTI price sharply. *Asset Class Outlooks* Forex EUR/USD: Ranges between 1.0900–1.1000; weak U.S. data favors the euro. USD/JPY: Could test sub‑152.50 if yields drop. AUD/USD & CAD/USD: Trade PMI reactions; trim long positions on downbeat China data. Indices S&P/Nasdaq: Scalping higher with controlled volatility; eye weak CPI/retail prints for breakouts or trend reversals. Europe (DAX/FTSE): Vulnerable pre‑Fed; stronger ECB talk or trade data may be needed for direction. Gold (XAU/USD) Buy dips: key levels at $3,350–$3,400, breakout above $3,450 on data or geopolitical spikes. Oil (WTI) Range-bound: $72–$78, breakout possible on OPEC signals or conflict escalation. *Trade Setups for Retail Traders* EUR/USD Breakout: Enter long on sustained move above 1.0950 with macro confirmation, stop under 1.0910. Gold Momentum: Target $3,500 if CPI/retail miss and geopolitical risk persist. Entry near $3,400. Crude Spike Play: Long above $76.50, stop-loss at $74; quick intra-day trades favored. NASDAQ Quick Trades: 15‑30 point moves around Fed commentary; trade in small size and tight stops. ✅ Final Word Markets remain cautious but constructive. The stage is set for Fed guidance, retail data, and geopolitical ADC to shift sentiment. Retail traders should stay agile, monitor macro calendars, play key technical levels, and keep risk managed tightly. Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and trade responsibly.