D-Street
June 2, 2025 at 01:48 AM
*Welspun Corp Ltd* Better than expected quarter; growth outlook robust POSITIVE:-CMP : Rs. 893, Upside potential : 20% https://www.sharekhan.com/MediaGalary/Equity/WelspunCorp-V-May29_2025.pdf Company reported a revenue of Rs. 3,925 crore (down 12% y-o-y), but inline with estimates. It was due to line pipe volume de-growth of 19% y-o-y. Operating profit of Rs. 460 crore was up 39% y-o-y and higher than estimates. Company’s reported EBITDA also exceeded guidance in FY25. Pipe business outlook remains robust across US and Saudi Arabia. Good execution in the Sintex business would further help the company to negate the earnings cyclicality. We assign a 11.5x EV/EBITDA multiple on its FY27 estimate because of the strong execution and the Sintex optionality, and expect a 20% upside on the stock. Company trades at a valuation of 11.4x/9.7x its FY26E/27E EV/EBITDA. *Indigo Paints Ltd* Soft Q4; recovery to be gradual BUY:-CMP : Rs. 1,056, PT : Rs. 1,234 https://www.sharekhan.com/MediaGalary/StockIdea/Indigo_Paints-May29_2025.pdf Indigo Paints Limited’s (IPL’s) Q4FY25 performance continued to be hit by sluggishness in the paints industry. Consolidated revenues grew by 0.7% y-o-y, OPM rose 58 bps y-o-y to 22.6% and PAT grew 5.4% y-o-y. Demand recovered gradually in Q4FY25, with further improvement expected in Q1FY26. Management expects demand to normalise and return to historical growth rates by Q2FY26. OPM is expected to improve in FY26 driven by demand recovery, lower raw material prices and favourable product mix. Apple Chemie’s margins likely to improve led by better product mix and focus on select geographies. Stock trades at 32x/27x its FY26E/FY27E earnings, respectively. We maintain a Buy rating with a revised PT of Rs. 1,234. *Cummins India* Margins shine in Q4; Outlook healthy BUY:-CMP : Rs. 3,172, PT : Rs. 4,000 https://www.sharekhan.com/MediaGalary/StockIdea/CumminsIndia-May29_2025.pdf Q4FY25 numbers were broadly in line with estimates. Revenues rose 6%, lagging our estimates but margins were upbeat to our estimates due to favorable product mix (HHP powergen business 27% y-o-y). Operating profit rose 7% with a margin improvement of 24 bps to 21.2% meaningfully higher from our estimate of 19.8%. As margins improved, PAT grew 4%. Management is optimistic about demand across the sectors. CPCB-IV volumes have reached 80-85% of CPCB-II levels. The management guided a double-digit revenue growth driven by strong demand from data centres, commercial and residential real estate. We expect a 15%/13% CAGR in revenue/PAT (FY25-27E). Given the domestic demand uptick due to the adoption of CPCB-IV emission norms and gradual recovery in export business, we maintain a Buy rating with a PT of Rs 4,000, ascribing a multiple of 45x on FY27 earnings estimates. *Birlasoft Ltd* Subdued Quarter BUY:-CMP : Rs. 421, PT : Rs. 480 https://www.sharekhan.com/MediaGalary/StockIdea/Birlasoft-May29_2025.pdf Reported revenue stood at $152.2 million, down 5.3% q-o-q/6.9% y-o-y, in CC terms, missing our estimate of $160.1 million. EBITDA margin expanded ~119 bps q-o-q to 13.2%, beating our estimates of 12.6%. New deal wins TCV stood at $112 million, up 75% q-o-q/ 5% y-o-y. The management expects FY26 to be better than FY25 and aims to maintain ~13% margins while prioritizing growth over margin expansion in FY26. We maintain BUY with a revised PT of Rs. 480 (valued at 20xFY27E EPS). At CMP, the stock trades at 21.1/17.4x FY26/27E EPS. *Vinati Organics Ltd* Strong quarter; good outlook ahead BUY:-CMP : Rs. 1,812, PT : Rs. 2,100 https://www.sharekhan.com/MediaGalary/StockIdea/Vinati-May28_2025.pdf Company reported a Revenue of Rs. 648 crore, up 17.5% y-o-y. Operating profit of Rs. 180 crore increased 20.4% y-o-y with the OPM of 27.8% (up 58 bps y-o-y). Net profit of Rs. 123 crore increased 18.1% y-o-y. ATBS and Antioxidants registered a strong 30%/70% revenue growth in FY25. The management expects a 20% revenue growth for the next three years led mainly by ATBS and Antioxidants (AOs), with long term sustainable blended EBITDA margin of 26-27%. We maintain a Buy on the stock, assigning a multiple of 37x on its FY27 EPS and arrive at a TP of Rs. 2,100, The stock is trading at 40x/32x its FY26/27 EPS. *V2 Retail Ltd* Strong Q4; outlook stays bright POSITIVE:-CMP : Rs. 1,877, PT : Rs. 2,293 https://www.sharekhan.com/MediaGalary/Equity/V2Retail-V-May28_2025.pdf Q4FY25 numbers were strong, with revenues rising 68% y-o-y, EBITDA margin expanding 99 bps y-o-y thus driving 79% y-o-y PAT growth. Management guided for y-o-y revenue growth of 45-50% driven by new stores and SSSG of 8-10% and pre-IndAS EBITDA margin of 8-9% for the next 2-3 years. V2R plans 100 store openings annually for the next few years with new stores likely to perform 25%-30% less than old stores. Store additions largely to be funded by internal accruals. Stock trades at 18x and 12x its FY26E and FY27E EV/EBIDTA, respectively. We stay Positive with a revised PT at Rs. 2,293.

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