Jayant Mundhra (Biz News+)

*To all the 27.5k+ supergood folks of this community!* ❤️ On 8th Feb, I turned a dad, and thus, I had shared here on 10th, that I shall be away for 7-10 days or so. Given it’s already much longer than that, my inbox is full of messages, asking when do I resume sharing stuff here, ad if all is good. Thus, here is an update. .. *My little Jiya faced some initial health challenges day 3 onwards, which are largely addressed now.* But, some of the last few days had been so so tough (mentally and emotionally), that I am not yet prepared to spend a minute on anything else, but spend it in and around my daughter and wife. Frankly, in the last two weeks or so, my world has shrunk to just those two beautiful, amazing ladies in my life. .. *Thus, apologies, but it’s going to take slightly longer.* My priorities are set and clear - I want to be with my girls. And in this time, ~50 odd people out of 27.4k+ members of this community have already left. And in coming days, some more may leave because I may take another week to 10 days. But, to ones who would remain here after that, I thank you all the love, support and understanding in advance. .. *Meanwhile, my inbox is full of over 2k messages congratulating the birth of my dearest Jiya* ❤️ To all - Thanks from the bottom of my heart and a humble request - Pray for my girl, and send in your blessings :) Much love, Jayant

*To all the beautiful people in this community* - I have the biggest announcement of my life to share ❤️ *Here:* https://t.ly/3Vm-A Please send all your blessings our way, as I come back and turn this community and all my newsletters active again in the coming 7/10 days or so. Much love, Jayant

*I wonder, why nobody is talking of Apple since Deepseek’s arrival.* Because, the way I see it, Apple has been the biggest beneficiary of all! -> It invested hardly a few billions into AI, versus multiple tens of billions in case of other American tech giants -> And now, even though it was probably because of incompetency, that seems to have saved them tens of billions in cash! That’s a big win! Let me explain deeper. .. *Let's start from the beginning.* Back in 2022, after OpenAI rocked the world, Google, Microsoft, Meta and others were throwing billions into AI research. Meanwhile, Apple seemed to lag, catching flak for being behind the curve. -> 2023 was no different. Apple was the slowpoke in a high-speed race. Critics were relentless, and the stock market reflected this skepticism -> Then came 2024. The big American tech companies were still the talk of the town, their massive investments in AI infrastructure making headlines Meanwhile, Apple sort of accepted it was behind the curve, by partnering with Microsoft-funded OpenAI. .. *But 2025?* Deepseek arrives. Here was a company that managed to produce AI capabilities that were competitive with the likes of OpenAI and Meta but at a fraction of the cost. OpenAI had spent over $600mn on their model 'o1', and Google? They were in the billions with Gemini. *But Deepseek?* A mere $6mn. Suddenly, Deepseek was not just a blip on the radar - it was the radar. This revelation was like a bombshell in Silicon Valley, and Apple was sitting pretty. .. *I know many would opine otherwise, but (I can be wrong), Apple's strategy of cautious spending on this hot AI wave and strategic outsourcing suddenly looks brilliant, not backward.* Either they have come out really lucky. Or they intentionally positioned themselves to adopt this technology without the billions in sunk costs, waiting for the ecosystem to mature first. They've avoided throwing money into the AI fire pit. And they're now in a prime position to integrate Deepseek's technology, or something like it, into their products without the baggage of massive investment overheads. What do you think? .. *Check my work with:* - 3.3k+ on Decoding The Dragon (https://t.ly/chnwj) - 2.8k+ on Deepdives with Jay (https://t.ly/dwj) - 2.4k+ on BharatNama (https://t.ly/bwj) *My CC Referrals:* - Plat Metal: https://americanexpress.com/en-in/referral/platinum?ref=jAYANMH2H5&XL=MIANS - Plat Reserve: https://americanexpress.com/en-in/referral/platinum-reserve?ref=jAYANMu0C1&XL=MIANS Best, Jayant Shilanjan Mundhra

*Hard facts & reality check* - India operates ~8GW of nuclear power, and intends to reach 22GW by 2032 and 100GW by 2047 🙏🙏 China, on the other hand, has 56GW now, is announcing minimum 10GW of fresh new reactors every year, and is aiming for 200GW by 2035. By 2035 China’s capacity will be double the size of where we wish to be another 12 years after that. .. *One might say China and India have different nuclear power needs, and I agree.* So consider this. India is still building 2nd generation nuclear reactors. Meanwhile, much of China’s reactors are 3rd generation ones. And, in 2023, China unveiled its first 4th generation nuclear reactor 🙏🙏 And this has all been achieved in just about 20 years. Yep - Trust me, China and India were largely at the same stand just 20yrs ago. India has come far. But, while we have moved 10 steps in these 20yrs, China has gone 75! We must acknowledge these realities and scale up investments and ambitions for 2032 and 2047. .. *Think this way:* China today has more reactors in construction than the rest of the world put together. Result? It's nuclear power setup costs a third of the US’s. And it’s ahead of or at par with the US in technology. Outcome? It’s actively exporting nuclear reactors with a 2030 goal to build 30 reactors abroad and earn ~$145bn out of it. Meanwhile, India spends more to build a lower generation reactor - As bad as it may feel, this is the HARSH TRUTH 🙏🙏 .. *And it gets worse.* See, India has 8GW nuclear power capacity, for which it uses ~450 tons of uranium, of which ~100 tons is imported every year. Meanwhile, in 2024, China almost achieved self-sufficiency in uranium sourcing to feed its 56GW nuclear power capacity. And a big boost there came from a single uranium enrichment plant built in Lanzhou, which produces 3k tons annually. That’s 7x what India uses each year, where a significant portion is still imported 🙏🙏 .. *My point is, we are behind in scale, ambition, tech, costs and also on raw material which feeds the reactors which gets built anyway.* Thus, don’t take this as a rant. Take it as a young Indian asking fellow Indians, elders and younger alike, to have conversations about where we really stand and whether we are plugging the gap with the world. Otherwise, we can never really ask or expect better of our political leadership, and our future as a country 🙏🙏 I wrote a massive newsletter, covering China’s nuclear energy sector, where you will find all the details I shared above, and a lot more. This one was published earlier today. If you find what I shared to be thought-provoking, do read more on this subject here: https://decodingthedragon.substack.com/p/35-chinas-big-lead-in-nuclear-energy

*Cashfree’s new $53mn funding cements what is my favourite Indian fintech story of all ❤️❤️* I’ve been following the business for about 4yrs now. Thus, with its new funding in the news, I thought this is a great time to share all I know about this Made in India for the World startup story, which I wish more people knew and tracked. *Thus penned this detailed note, which probably is too long for WhatsApp.* Thus sharing the link here: https://t.ly/kG79s *PS:* I wish I could read and share more from the world of startups. Will be trying to do that a little more in coming times :) Best, Jayant Shilanjan Mundhra

*Deepak Shenoy is someone I respect a ton for multiple reasons:* 1> What he has built - Capitalmind 2> The way he has built it, one step at a time, while also leveraging the power of quality content in a big way 3> The thoughts he puts out on the stock markets and the economy However, in a rare instance, I found something to disagree on with him a few days ago. .. *This was his reply to a tweet about the falling FII ownership and rising DII ownership.* He made a point that this shift was good for India, as more of the future wealth creation would benefit Indians. This is theoretically correct. However, it missed the perspective that any damage or downfall in the broader stock markets will mean more future wealth erosion for the locals. My point is, this works both ways. .. *And I have always put forward the example of China in this regard.* Think this way: In China, foreign stock market ownership is just about 4.5%. And the Chinese Govt had been defending this for the last 10 decades by advocating two things: 1> Domestic-heavy ownership leads to lower market volatility from foreign shocks 2> Ensures that share market growth benefits locals more than foreigners However, as developments of the last 3 years have shown, the meltdown of tech and real estate stocks in China has also primarily impacted the wealth of locals. And very badly so. .. *Let’s hope the India story never goes that way.* But my point is that, a decade ago, no one had predicted about China what has been playing out for the last 3+ years. And because of “N” number of unpredictable possibilities, anything could happen, even if the odds of bad things happening are low. Thus, let us keep both perspectives in mind. What do you think? .. *Check my work with:* - 3.3k+ on Decoding The Dragon (https://t.ly/chnwj) - 2.8k+ on Deepdives with Jay (https://t.ly/dwj) - 2.4k+ on BharatNama (https://t.ly/bwj) *My CC Referrals:* - Plat Metal: https://americanexpress.com/en-in/referral/platinum?ref=jAYANMH2H5&XL=MIANS - Plat Reserve: https://americanexpress.com/en-in/referral/platinum-reserve?ref=jAYANMu0C1&XL=MIANS Best, Jayant Shilanjan Mundhra

*Trent is down >35% from its peak valuation, achieved about 3.5 months back* 📛📛 And the biggest contributors to this fall have been two days - The day when Q2FY25 and Q3FY25 results were announced. And the reason? In my opinion, which I can be totally wrong on, remains what I have been calling out for about a year, which I also detailed in a deepdive a few weeks back. *What did I share there?* All below (will be a bit long). .. *See, Zudio had a total of ~560 outlets and continued to open a new store every 5 days as of Q2 end.* However, Reliance’s Yousta had handsomely caught up to become 10% as big. It had opened ~60 outlets in 39 cities in just 16 months since the launch of the first-ever store in Hyderabad in Aug 2023. Sure, some of the outlets were converts of existing Trent outlets, but the growth was steep nonetheless - an average of a new store every 8 days. And pace would have been much slower in the initial days. Thus, most likely, as of Q2 end, Yousta was opening a new store just as fast as Zudio! .. *More importantly, all of this happened when Reliance Retail had, in parallel, shut nearly a thousand outlets across formats in the last 12 months.* -> That’s an indicator that Reliance went bullish on Yousta at a time when had turned conservative as a business -> And that’s sort of proof, that Reliance management believes that Yousta is receiving ample love Otherwise, I doubt that Reliance would have been playing this with such energy. .. *And it’s not just Reliance.* Just 2 months before Reliance launched Yousta, Shoppers Stop had also launched Intune to compete in the same segment. -> And it too had ~60 outlets in about 20 cities at Q2 end. Thus, just as aggressive, with a higher focus on major cities -> Hence, practically, Reliance and Shoppers Stop had built a competitor as big as 20% the size of Zudio in just about 16-18 months as of Q2-end And that explains better than anything else, why Zudio’s sales growth has slowed down rapidly, also significantly impacting Trent’s share price 📛📛 Numbers clearly capture the impact of pain caused by Reliance and Shoppers Stop. As Reliance and Shopper’s Stop continues with the rapid expansion of Yousta and Intune, the effect on Zudio will only grow. .. *This also explains why Trent’s management has been launching newer formats and businesses.* -> In the last 6 months, they have launched Misbu to compete with Reliance’s Tira, Dabur’s NewU, Nykaa and others in the beauty and personal care segment -> And in a bid to drive up margins and AOV at Westside, it has also forayed into lab-grown diamond jewellery Because the management knows, that Zudio can no longer grow the way it had been growing, and the shareholders need growth anyhow to justify the valuations 📛📛 What do you think? .. *My CC Referrals:* - Plat Metal: https://americanexpress.com/en-in/referral/platinum?ref=jAYANMH2H5&XL=MIANS - Plat Reserve: https://americanexpress.com/en-in/referral/platinum-reserve?ref=jAYANMu0C1&XL=MIANS *Check my work with:* - 3.3k+ on Decoding The Dragon (https://t.ly/chnwj) - 2.8k+ on Deepdives with Jay (https://t.ly/dwj) - 2.4k+ on BharatNama (https://t.ly/bwj) Best, Jayant Shilanjan Mundhra

*Days ago, Times of India put out a misleading report, which claimed that Bengaluru had surpassed Delhi in private car ownership.* It cited the data from Delhi Statistical Handbook 2023, in which Bengaluru has 23.1 lakh private cars, compared to Delhi's 20.7 lakh as FY23 end. This, however, was the case of journalists not digging into the real story behind those statistics. .. *Truth?* -> Due to serious pollution woes, the Supreme Court had passed a landmark judgment in 2018 -> This banned diesel vehicles older than 10yrs and petrol vehicles over 15yrs in Delhi Because of this, in just two years, 2021-22 and 2022-23, Delhi Govt deregistered about 55 lakh cars, scrapped 1.4 lakh, and saw over 6.2 lakh vehicles move to other states for re-registration! This massive deregistration has significantly reduced the number of registered vehicles in the capital, from 1.2 crore to 79.5 lakh, with the number of private cars plummeting from 33.8 lakh to 20.7 lakh. .. *Times of India presented the data as if Bengaluru had suddenly become a car sales juggernaut, which is misleading.* The narrative should have been about how Delhi's proactive steps to reduce pollution by removing old, polluting vehicles from its roads have just not worked. Anyhow, did you know this? .. *My CC Referrals:* - Plat Metal: https://americanexpress.com/en-in/referral/platinum?ref=jAYANMH2H5&XL=MIANS - Plat Reserve: https://americanexpress.com/en-in/referral/platinum-reserve?ref=jAYANMu0C1&XL=MIANS *Check my work with:* - 3.3k+ on Decoding The Dragon (https://t.ly/chnwj) - 2.8k+ on Deepdives with Jay (https://t.ly/dwj) - 2.4k+ on BharatNama (https://t.ly/bwj) Best, Jayant Shilanjan Mundhra

*This whole brokerage reports biz is such a big stock market scam nobody talks about 📛📛* In the latest such instance, US-based brokerage called RBC Capital has come out with a very bullish report on Elon Musk’s Tesla. And this brokerage has valued Tesla's completely idea-stage robotaxi business idea at a staggering $879 billion based on a 2040 revenue forecast. *How?* They're projecting future revenue decades away, slapping a 10 times multiple on it like some magical wand, and then discounting it back at a 7.5% rate to today. I’ll be maintaining my grace if I call this preposterous hyper-astronomical BS. .. *And this is a widespread scam across brokerages worldwide, including those that operate in Indian stock markets.* So many instances, where they tell you share price targets for 2030, 2035, or even beyond, with the same reckless abandon for reality. Let me illustrate with a recent example. .. *In Sep, Goldman Sachs & Bank of America had released very bullish research reports which gave Ola Electric a target of Rs 160 and Rs 145 respectively.* On what basis? A guesstimate basis which they had managed to project 1> How many of Ola’s present-day and future scooter models, and the yet to be launched motorcycles and auto rickshaws and cars will continue to sell every year till FY30 2> At what price points and margins these will be sold, and with what subsidy support from the Govt (if any at all by that year) *Using those guesstimates, the analysts involved had gone as far as to say that Ola Electric would:* 1> EBITDA breakeven by FY27 2> Hit EBITDA margin of 12% by FY30 3> Be free cash flow breakeven by FY30 4> Deliver return on invested capital (ROIC) of 27% 5> And achieve a revenue growth of over 40% CAGR from FY24 to FY30 .. *These brokerages conjure up numbers out of thin air, completely disregarding geopolitical shifts, domestic policy changes, or even the potential obsolescence of the technology they're betting on.* What if there's a global economic downturn? Or what if a breakthrough technology renders these vehicles obsolete? These projections are dangerously delusional. -> And of course, they discount the endless things that could go wrong with the business itself in so many years ahead -> It's like predicting the weather for next month based on today's sunshine -> They are literally rigging the markets, pumping and dumping stocks And the sad part is, there are no repercussions. .. *My CC Referrals:* - Plat Metal: https://americanexpress.com/en-in/referral/platinum?ref=jAYANMH2H5&XL=MIANS - Plat Reserve: https://americanexpress.com/en-in/referral/platinum-reserve?ref=jAYANMu0C1&XL=MIANS *Check my work with:* - 3.2k+ on Decoding The Dragon (https://t.ly/chnwj) - 2.8k+ on Deepdives with Jay (https://t.ly/dwj) - 2.3k+ on BharatNama (https://t.ly/bwj) Best, Jayant Shilanjan Mundhra

*Indians are busy building 12k courses that teach how to master AI and earn tens of lakhs every month, while the US and China are building AI and moving years ahead of us.* I have heard this joke so many times in the last month, and I disagree with it to the core. The reality is that we are behind, but much in the race. Let me explain. .. *The biggest problem is that when we think of Indian founders building GPTs, all that comes to mind is Bhavish Agarwal of Ola and his Krutrim AI.* And as soon as one mentions that, things just go south. Why do I say that? He raised $50mn from his age-old backer (Matrix, now known as Z47) and then took on another $24mn in debt from the same investor to build a fantastic AI system that, if asked openly, says, “It has been created by OpenAI.” So, of course, it makes a joke of India’s strides in AI. .. *And beyond that, when people think of India and AI, everyone thinks that we are just building wrappers and not any foundational models.* But, the truth is very, very different! And two cases really deserve a lot more attention. Particularly more than Krutrim! 1> Sarvam AI - It raised $41mn from Ivy investors (including Khosla Ventures) and is building literally cutting-edge models centric on Indian languages. 2> Paras Chopra, who recently sold bootstrapped Wingify for $200mn, is now building an AI venture to build foundational models, which will position India among the global best These are serious attempts, with respectable people making real efforts to elevate India’s standing in the AI arena. .. *Also, I know the world often sells the idea that the Govt is not doing anything.* But frankly, some amazing stuff is indeed being done. Take Paras Chopra’s case. He has publicly shared that the plan is to build a lean team for his new AI Venture, prepare a plan, and then submit it to the India AI Mission. It’s a Govt initiative, wherein it has set aside funds, and also resources like 18k Nvidia GPUs which can be used by Indian AI startups to build in and from India for the country and the world! .. *My point is what?* India’s AI story is not just about Bhavish, Krturim and 12k courses on how to use AI and earn lakhs every month. A lot more of sincere work is underway, and we are maybe a maximum of 2 years behind the curve, not more. To most, this will come out as ludicrous or overly ambitious. But, I am bullish on India in AI. What about you? .. *My CC Referrals:* - Plat Metal: https://americanexpress.com/en-in/referral/platinum?ref=jAYANMH2H5&XL=MIANS - Plat Reserve: https://americanexpress.com/en-in/referral/platinum-reserve?ref=jAYANMu0C1&XL=MIANS *Check my work with:* - 3.2k+ on Decoding The Dragon (https://t.ly/chnwj) - 2.8k+ on Deepdives with Jay (https://t.ly/dwj) - 2.3k+ on BharatNama (https://t.ly/bwj) Best, Jayant Shilanjan Mundhra