Jayant Mundhra (Biz News+)
January 27, 2025 at 10:44 AM
*If I was an investor in Nvidia, I would be really worried right now* 🙏🙏
And it’s not because the stock is about 12% down at this moment in pre-market hours, but because of what’s coming.
See, I’ve been reading a lot about what China’s DeepSeek AI model has delivered. And now that I understand what has happened, I am blown to the top.
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*To be humble* - The bubble has popped.
Sam Altman, Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai and Mark Zuckerburg and Jensen Huang have been collectively outdone by a small Chinese outfit, DeepSeek, which trained world-class AI models for just a fraction of the cost.
And the biggest setback is for one man alone - Jensen Huang and Nvidia.
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*See, for the last year and a half, Nvidia has been the darling of the AI world.*
Its GPUs are considered the cornerstone of AI development with sky-high 90%+ margins and a market cap rivalling entire economies.
-> But DeepSeek, with its tiny team and even smaller budget, has shown that you don't need billions in GPU power to create cutting-edge AI
-> They've managed to train models that rival the likes of OpenAI's latest offerings, but with a staggering efficiency that could cut the demand for Nvidia's GPUs by as much as 45 times
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*How did they do it?*
By leveraging mixed-precision training.
They've used 8-bit numbers, whereas others use 32-bit ones, slashing memory needs and costs.
They've also innovated with multi-token prediction, doubling speed without losing quality, and introduced a new form of attention mechanism that uses less memory while potentially improving model performance.
*I know, it’s too much heavy tech language for us ordinary folks* 😅😅
In a nutshell - This bunch of tiny Chinese quant techies out-engineered the entire American AI fraternity by showing that you don’t need as many of those costly GPUs to get that sound kind of outcome.
And they did it all while spending less than what most people in that fraternity make a year.
Crazy!
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*The implications are clear:* The market's faith in Nvidia's unchallenged reign might be misplaced.
With these advancements, the demand for Nvidia's hardware could plummet. And, they've been pricing in continuous growth at astronomical rates, but what if the growth curve flattens?
Even a slight drop in sales growth or margins could be catastrophic for its stock price. And what DeepSeek has shown heralds not just a slight drop, but a massive one.
*Thus, there’s no wonder why Nvidia’s stock is ~12% down in pre-market hours as of this moment!*
And this may just be the start.
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Best,
Jayant Shilanjan Mundhra
👍
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