Market Intelligence
January 19, 2025 at 06:34 AM
A new McKinsey report highlights a critical demographic shift in India, emphasizing that the country has approximately 33 years to leverage its demographic dividend before it transitions into an "aged" economy by the 2050s. This shift is significant for several reasons:
Demographic Dividend: Currently, India benefits from a large working-age population, which can contribute to economic growth through productivity and consumption. The demographic dividend refers to this economic growth potential when the proportion of the working-age population is higher than the dependent population (children and elderly). According to the report, this advantage will shrink from adding 0.7 percentage points per year to GDP per capita growth from 1997 to 2023, to just 0.2 percentage points by 2050. This reduction indicates a narrowing window for economic growth through demographic means
Aging Population: As India's fertility rate drops below the replacement level and life expectancy increases, the population structure will change. By 2050, the number of working-age individuals per senior will decrease from 10 today to 4.6, which will increase the dependency ratio, putting pressure on public finances and family structures to support the elderly. This shift could strain resources, particularly in healthcare and social security systems, which are not yet fully equipped to handle such a demographic change
Economic Implications: The aging population will likely lead to slower economic growth unless there are significant policy changes. Increasing female labor force participation, improving worker productivity through innovation, investment, and technology adoption, are suggested as measures to mitigate the economic impact of this demographic shift. The report underscores the need for India to become wealthier before this demographic change fully takes effect, to ensure that the country has the economic strength to support its aging population
Policy Recommendations: To capitalize on the remaining years of demographic dividend, India needs comprehensive policy reforms. These could include enhancing labor market participation, especially among women, improving education and healthcare systems, and fostering an environment conducive to economic growth through innovation and productivity enhancements.
In summary, the warning from the McKinsey report is a call to action for India to implement strategic economic and social policies within the next 33 years to leverage its current demographic advantage. This is crucial for building a robust economy capable of supporting an aging population, ensuring that India does not fall into a low-income trap as its demographic structure evolves.
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