
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
January 30, 2025 at 09:10 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES JANUARY 30 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• As it has been lately the case, Sovereign Bonds opened slightly positive, gaining up to 50 cents early on. However, when the local market opened, we started seeing selling pressure once again. From the intraday highs, bonds lost around 35 cents. For reference, the highest print in ARGENT 2030s was $76, with the last trade at $75.60. A similar pattern was observed in the 2035s. The market closed positive by 10–20 cents, but still ended 40 cents off the day's highs.
• Regarding Provincials, the market opened with a better bid tone. BUENOS bonds traded in a $71.15 – $71.65 range but saw limited activity. The last print was at $71, meaning it closed slightly lower but on very low volume. The BUENOS 2037B (5.875%), which traded throughout the day at $61, had visible offers at that level. We continued to see demand for PRN, Río Negro, Jujuy, ENTRIO, Córdoba, and Chaco, but there was no significant supply. Some selling pressure was noted in Mendoza, Chubut, and Neuquén, but overall, markets closed unchanged with some minimal flow in Santa Fe.
• As for Corporates, YPF’s curve saw a slightly stronger bid, with some trading in the 2034s. It’s worth noting that the new 34s came out fairly wide, around 25 bps wider than the existing 47s, but are now trading flat. We also saw some risk-on sentiment. In general, corporate bonds had low trading volumes, with prices opening stronger. We saw some demand for TECOAR, TRAGAS, and PAMPAR 2031, but it was a quiet session overall.
• The BCS remained stable at ARS 1178 per dollar, and the Central Bank purchased $68 million in the official market.
• For peso bonds, it was a positive day, after yesterday's successful auction, with fixed-rate instruments up an average of 0.2%, inflation-linked bonds advancing 0.1%, and dollar-linked bonds rising 1.2%.
• Fixed-rate bonds saw a bullish session, driven by strong performance on the short end of the curve. The S16A5 stood out with a 0.6% gain, while trading activity was concentrated at the long end, where the T13F6 and T30J6 dominated in volume. The new dual bonds issued after last week's exchange were firm and gained up to 0.5%. The curve saw slight movements at the short end, now ranging between 2.7% and 2.1% effective monthly yields.
• Inflation-linked bonds remained largely stable, with the TZX25 rising 0.3% and the TZX26 slipping 0.2%. Activity in the segment was centered around the TZX26, though overall trading levels remained within typical ranges. The curve held steady, reflecting real yields between 4% and 8%.
• Dollar-linked bonds extended their upward trend, supported by gains in TV25 and TZV25, which rose 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively. However, these movements occurred on low trading volumes, making them less representative of broader market dynamics.