Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
258 subscribers
About Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
Finanzas y Mercados. Nuestro view del mercado financiero, donde publicamos contenido sobre los diferentes activos: El dólar, los bonos en pesos y en dólares, Fondos Comunes de Inversión y las novedades relevantes del momento.
Similar Channels
Griess Keller Geisfeld
Contenido Real Sociedad-El Rincón De La Real
Catholic Lectionary
MOx Innovations
Fraternidad Morenada Central Oruro
Convocatorias Comunicaciones: Empleos - Prácticas - Capacitaciones
أكاديمية هندسة الأجيال
Bitcoin_HOY
Consulado General del Perú en Arica
Nicholas Trading Strategy
Girls Beauty Jetso 女生美妝優惠情報
Metamorfosis. El baile De las Mariposas
Método Bates en Español
The Dome Market Place
El Misionerismo
Swipe to see more
Posts
*IRSA: Ramblas del Plata: Long-Term Value for IRSA* See full report here: https://tinyurl.com/AdcapIRSARdPVisit *Yesterday we visited IRSA’s “Ramblas del Plata” landbank in Puerto Madero, a transformational project that could double the company’s size over the long term.* The development spans 60 lots and 870,000 sqm of buildable mixed-use space, currently recorded at cost on IRSA’s books. The project follows a low-risk strategy based on land-for-floor-space swaps with third-party developers, limiting IRSA’s upfront capital needs. Phase 1 includes 20 lots (164,000 sqm), with 11 already sold or swapped and the remainder in progress. *IRSA is investing USD 40 million in infrastructure over the next 12–18 months,* with initial construction expected by 2026 and tower deliveries by 2028–29. With 200,000 sqm of potential returns and prices ranging from USD 3,400 to USD 12,000/sqm, the project *could generate USD 1 billion over a decade*. It’s drawing strong interest from local and international developers, with residential at its core and a mix of retail and services. *Meanwhile, Argentina’s property market is recovering, supported by rising mortgage activity, removal of capital controls, and improving wages.* IRSA’s broader portfolio remains solid, with strong shopping mall performance (98% occupancy) and upside in conservative valuations. Office assets are undervalued in DCF models but typically sold, while hotels lag with declining EBITDA. Financially, IRSA is in a strong position, with 1.4x net leverage and USD 100 million earmarked for development, while its rental business generates USD 160 million in EBITDA and USD 100 million in free cash flow annually.
*Last week, Argentine ADRs had a weekly average increase of 1.7%* See report here: https://tinyurl.com/05262025AdcapEquityWeekly The Argentine stocks that posted the with the strongest weekly figures were Loma Negra (LOMA), Edenor (EDN) and Cresud (CRESY) with increases of 12.6%, 6.7% and 5.4%, respectively. On the contrary, the companies with the weakest weekly performance were Telecom Argentina (TEO), Mercado Libre (MELI) and Corporación América (CAAP) with a decrease of 3.3%, 3.0% and 1.3% respectively. The strongest sector was Industrial and Real Estate with an average increase of 7.8% while the weakest sector was Tech with a 2.4% decrease. Argentine ADRs are now 17% below their five-year highs from mid-January 2025. Year-to-date, Mercado Libre (MELI), Loma Negra (LOMA) and BBVA Argentina (BBAR) are leading the performance with gains of 47.5%, 15.4% and 13.6%, respectively. In contrast, Globant (GLOB), Bioceres (BIOX) and Telecom Argentina (TEO) lagged behind declining 53.1%, 23.8% and 15.9%, respectively. The mean performance of listed ADRs shows a monthly increase of 6.6%. In comparison, the DJI, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 3.7%, 5.0% and 7.8%. Blue-Chip FX (CCL) rate closed at 1,161.5 AR$/US$ (-1% w/w). For the week, the top gainers (in dollars) were: *On the leader panel + others:* LOMA (+13%), ALUA (+9%) and BHIP (+7%). *From the general panel:* GBAN (+9%), MORI (+8%) and HARG (+7%). *Among CEDEARs:* AAP (+37%), X (+30%) and URBN (+15%). *Index:* DJI (-2.5%), SPX (-2.6%) and CCMP (-2.5%). More on this report: Weekly flows, equity volumes, updated valuation multiples with Latam Peers comparison, *BMA 1Q25 Preview, a report on IRSA's Ramblas del Plata project* and 1Q25 Earnings Calendar.
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUNE 03 CLOSING COMMENTS:* • Sovereign Bonds started strong, up by half a point in the morning, with the ARGENT 2030s trading around $79.15 and the ARGENT 2035s nearly reaching $68, and the 2046s at $66. However, the market got weaker in the afternoon and ended basically unchanged from yesterday. There wasn’t much flow. • The new Bonte saw very little trading, at ARS 107.5 mid-price. • We saw demand for the longer Bopreas, which did outperform a bit, ending 30 to 40 cents higher. • On the provincial side, BUENOS traded in a $72.5 to $72.75 range and ended a bit weaker at 72.5. The 5.875s are still lagging, yielding about 60 basis points more than the 6.625s. • In corporates, the new Telecom bond is doing very well—up 2.5 points from where it was issued. The YPF curve has also been well bid for a while. For a long time, the YPFDAR 2047s were yielding 20 to 30 basis points inside the 2034s, which we thought was expensive. Now we’re seeing some selling, and they’re trading roughly flat. • On the FX front, not much movement. • As for stocks, the Merval rebounded 0.6% in USD terms on Monday, closing at $1,857, supported by a broad recovery in energy stocks and a midday reversal in local sentiment. After starting the session in negative territory—particularly weighed by banks—the local market found strength past noon, following gains in US equities and a strong rebound in energy names. The standout was GeoPark (GPRK), which jumped 8.2%, continuing its rally after Pampa Energía disclosed the acquisition of a 10.2% stake in the company. With energy names leading and banks still lagging, the market seems to be rotating toward names with clearer upside catalysts, though volatility remains elevated across the board. • Mixed day for peso bonds, with fixed-rate up an average of 0.1%, inflation-linked down an average of 0.2%, and dollar-linked up an average of 0.5%. • Dollars were in demand again, with the dollar futures curve closing with slight increases on the short end and more marked increases on the long end. The official dollar rose 0.2%, while the CCL and MEP increased by 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. • Peso bonds had a neutral day. The fixed-rate curve saw slight declines in the mid-section, offset by more significant increases at the long end, leading the segment to close slightly positive on average. On the CER side, declines were more pronounced and generalized across the curve. Meanwhile, dollar-linked bonds saw broad-based gains across the curve, in line with today’s FX movements.
*Last week, Argentine ADRs had a weekly average decrease of 5.3%* See report here: https://tinyurl.com/06022025AdcapEquityWeekly The Argentine stocks that posted the weakest weekly figures were Grupo Supervielle (SUPV), Banco Macro (BMA) and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS) with decreases of 17.1%, 10.4% and 9.6%, respectively. On the contrary, the companies with the strongest weekly performance were Bioceres (BIOX), Mercado Libre (MELI) and Vista Energy (VIST) with increases of 5.4% and 2.2% and, a decrease of 0.5%, respectively. The strongest sector was Farming with an average increase of 0.5% while the weakest sector was Banks with a 11.1% decrease. Argentine ADRs are now 21% below their five-year highs from mid-January 2025. *In May,* the best-performing Argentine ADRs were Central Puerto (CEPU), YPF and Bioceres (BIOX) with increases of 23.8%, 18.7% and 14.8%, respectively. On the flip side, the least performing stocks were Globant (GLOB), Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) and Geopark (GPRK) decreasing 16.6%, 13.2% and 6.5%, respectively. Year-to-date, Mercado Libre (MELI), Corporación América (CAAP) and Loma Negra (LOMA) are leading the performance with gains of 50.7%, 10.4% and 6.1%, respectively. In contrast, Globant (GLOB), Edenor (EDN) and Telecom Argentina (TEO) lagged behind declining 54.3%, 23.0% and 22.6%, respectively. The mean performance of listed ADRs shows a monthly increase of 6.0%. In comparison, the DJI, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 2.3%, 4.0% and 6.3%. Blue-Chip FX (CCL) rate closed at 1,207.1 AR$/US$ (+3.9% w/w). For the week, the top gainers (in dollars) were: *On the leader panel + others:* TRAN (+3%), VALO (+2%) and MELI (+2%). *From the general panel:* ROSE (+30%), GRIM (+15%) and CARC (+2%). *Among CEDEARs:* ETSY (+16%), XROX (+8%) and KB (+7%). *Index:* DJI (+1.6%), SPX (+1.9%) and CCMP (+2.0%). More on this report: Weekly flows, equity volumes, 1Q25 valuation multiples with Latam Peers comparison, and BMA, GGAL and SUPV's 1Q25 results.
*Grupo Supervielle (SUPV): 1Q25 Results* See report here: https://tinyurl.com/AdcapSUPV1Q25Results *Grupo Supervielle (SUPV US; Not Rated) reported weak 1Q25 results, with net income falling to ARS 7.9 billion*—down 89% y/y and 74% q/q—driven by losses on sovereign bond holdings and rising credit costs. ROE dropped to 3.5%, the low end of our expected range, while NIM compressed to 19.2% due to declining returns on the investment portfolio. That said, client-related net interest income grew 17% q/q and 15% y/y, supported by solid loan growth (+104% y/y real), especially in retail, which now makes up over half the loan book. *We expect a normalization in government securities to lift ROE by 2–3% in coming quarters.* *Asset quality remained healthy, with NPLs at 2.0%* and cost of risk rising to 5.0%, in line with revised guidance. Deposits grew 7.7% q/q and 34% y/y in real terms, supported by a successful rollout of remunerated accounts. Operating efficiency improved, with expenses down 17% y/y and an efficiency ratio of 59.6%. Despite the earnings miss, *management maintained full-year ROE guidance of 12–15% and highlighted ample capital (CET1 at 15.3%) and optionality for a capital increase.* Near-term pressures remain, but SUPV continues to lay the groundwork for profitable growth.
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUN 2 CLOSING COMMENTS:* • The day opened weak but ended at the highs. Argentina outperformed the region, finishing slightly positive despite a drop in US Treasury prices. Just to give you a sense—long-dated Treasuries were down a full point, with the 30-year yield hitting 5%, and the 10-year at 4.46%, up by half a point. So, most LATAM countries are closing in the red, but Argentina is finishing about 15–20 cents better bid. • ARGENT 2030 closed at $78.65, ARGENT 2035 at $67.35 and ARGENT 2041 at $62.30. Earlier this morning, these same bonds were trading roughly 30 cents lower. • As for Boprea, the 2026s traded around $99, and the 27 C & D series outperformed—closing about 40 cents better bid. Within the hard currency sovereign curve, those were the standout performers. • On the provincials side, BUENOS had closed Friday around $72.25 and today, it traded as high as $72.45 and closed around 72.50 mid-market. Notably, Buenos Aires bonds are outperforming the less liquid 5.875% 2037s, now yielding about 50 basis points more than Buenos. • Turning to the local market, the new Bonte performed strongly, trading in a $107–$108 range, with actual prints around those levels and close to par. • In corporates, Vista announced a new 7-year issue, and we saw the Vista 2035s 75 cents more offered, now yielding around 8.35%. There was also selling in TGS 2031, which we believe looks expensive on the curve, and also in Pampa 2031. On the high-yield side, we continued to see demand in CLISA and MSUNRG. As for YPF, its curve outperformed the rest of the corporate space today, with both the 2031s and 2034s closing 25 cents better bid. • The official fx dropped to ARS 1180 while the BCS closed at ARS 1194 per dollar. • Argentine equities extended losses on Monday, the Merval closed at $1,851 down 2.3% in USD terms, as risk appetite remained muted across local names despite a recovery in Brent and strong gains abroad. The Merval closed dropping 2.3% from Friday's USD 1,894.5. This underperformance stood in contrast to Wall Street, where the Nasdaq gained 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, and the Dow added 0.1%. Brent crude rebounded 2.9% to USD 64.60 per barrel, following OPEC+’s decision to maintain a gradual output increase and amid signs of falling US production. • Positive day for peso bonds, with fixed-rate up an average of 0.2%, inflation-linked up an average of 0.1% and dollar-linked down an average of 0.5%. • On the dollar side, the week began with weak demand. The futures curve closed with generalized declines of 0.6%, the official dollar posted a more pronounced drop of 1.2%, while financial dollars fell 1% in the CCL and 0.7% in the MEP. • Peso bonds had a solid trading session from the market open, with stronger demand in the fixed-rate segment compared to CER. This resulted in more pronounced increases along the fixed-rate curve by the close, particularly concentrated at the long end. Dollar-linked bonds moved in line with FX performance, explaining the 0.5% to 1% declines across the segment.
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUNE 05 CLOSING COMMENTS:* • After a heavy close yesterday, Argentine Bonds opened heavy today, while other LatAm bonds were trading positively. Bonds opened 25 cents down and closed near the lows—80 cents down, with the ARGENT 2035 at $66.30 and the ARGENT 2030 at $76.75. Argentina was the most negative in the region, and things accelerated further after the news about Elon Musk and Trump—Trump announcing cuts to EV subsidies and Musk firing back hard, not only defending himself by saying he wants to reduce the deficit (unlike Trump or the Republicans), but also bringing up Epstein’s files. • Bopreas were also a bit more offered, but relatively outperformed, down only around 25 cents. • In the provincial space, FUEGO dropped 3 points after a long period of no trading. BUENOS bonds underperformed the sovereigns: the 5.875s of 2037 closed around $61–$61.5, while the 6.625s traded at $71.25–$71.75. We saw demand for the City of Buenos Aires bond, which ended 75 cents better bid, closing around $101.5–$102, likely as the result of conservative investors reinvesting the 33% amortization recently paid. Just a reminder that not long ago the City was planning investor meetings in New York, likely for some kind of liability management. Still, on a day when everything else (sovereigns and quasi-sovereigns) was offered, the City stood out with a stronger bid. • In corporates, the new Vista bond, which apparently priced very cheap, traded all day at 100.125 to 100.25. Vista 2035s were more offered, closing at $95–$95.50, though they’re still trading inside the 2033s in yield terms. There was some light demand in the YPF curve, especially in the 2034s, but overall activity was very low. • FX stayed calm around the 1200 level. • As for stocks, the Merval in USD posted a modest 0.3% decline on Thursday, closing at $1,767. While losses continued, the pace of the selloff eased after several sharp sessions. A few financial names began to recover slightly, offering tentative signs of stabilization. Although fundamentals remain solid, recent earnings disappointments from banks and the shifting market sentiment continue to weigh on overall performance. • Mixed day for peso bonds, with fixed-rate down by an average of 0.1%, inflation-linked up by an average of 0.1%, and dollar-linked up by an average of 0.4%. • Dollars closed higher again, with the futures curve up approximately 0.3%, the official dollar rising a more marked 0.5%, and financial dollars showing mixed movements—CCL up 0.2% and MEP down 0.1%—slightly narrowing the spread between them. • Peso bonds showed mixed performance across curves. Fixed-rate bonds opened weaker and ended the day with losses concentrated at the long end, except for the BONTE 2030, which rose 0.1% and stood out due to its high trading volume. Inflation-linked bonds performed better overall, driven by gains in the short end of the curve, while the middle and long tranches closed with declines.
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUNE 04 CLOSING COMMENTS:* • Not much happened today in the equity market externally, but in the bond market, expectations for a Fed rate cut increased. The market is now pricing in a potential cut in September, and another one before year end. That pushed Treasuries significantly higher—especially the 30-year, which had been lagging; it rose a point and a half, while the 10-year was up three-quarters of a point. The 10-year yield closed at 4.35%, and the 30-year at 4.88%. • That led to strong demand across most emerging market bonds—except in Argentina, where bonds closed lower. The day started slightly positive with some trades, like the ARGENT 2030 at $78.85 and the 2035 at $67.80, then moved to unchanged, and closed at the lows of the day: the 2030 at $78.40 and the 2035 at $67. So, Argentina underperformed the global trend and ended offered. • On the Boprea side, they finished flat, effectively outperforming the sovereigns with little trading and no change in price. • As for the new Bonte 29.5% 2030, it was actively traded today between ARS 108.25 and ARS 108.50, and there were some trades up to a point higher, with the last print around ARS 109. • In the provincial segment, we saw a pullback in BUENOS bonds, which had last traded at $72.5 yesterday and was trading at $72 today. There was some demand for PDCAR 2025, while some investors looked to exit PDCAR 2029. We also saw some demand for BUEAIR 27 around par and a half, likely looking to reinvest the recent 33% amortization paid. • On the corporate side, the new 7-year VISTA bond at 8.5% came out. It traded a bit in the grey market and last printed 25 cents above reoffer. The existing VISTA 2035 corrected, closing at $95.75, half a point below yesterday's close. At that level, the VISTA 2035s are yielding 15 bps inside the 2033s, which suggests either the 2035 is expensive or the new 2033 is cheap. Assuming the 2033 is cheap, it could easily rise by a full point. As for YPF’s curve, even though Vista (also oil and gas) came out with a new bond, we saw better buyers across YPFs, with many trades in the $99 handle on the 2034s. The 47s, on the other hand, continue to see selling pressure and are now trading 10 bps wider than the 2034s. We also saw retail flow in PLUSPE and TECPET, and some profit-taking in TECOAR 2033 after a 3-point rally. • Equities were decimated, which were down between 5% and 7%. The Merval plunged 4.8% in USD terms on Tuesday, closing at $1,776, as weakness in financials and energy stocks deepened amid rising uncertainty. Despite stable fundamentals in some sectors, persistent selling pressure and shifting positioning drove sharp losses across the board. • The FX hovered around similar levels all day, between ARS 1195 and ARS 1197 per dollar. • Negative day for peso bonds, with fixed-rate and inflation-linked bonds down an average of 0.1%, and dollar-linked bonds up an average of 0.1%. • Dollars had a quiet trading session, with slight increases of 0.2% along the dollar futures curve, while the official dollar showed virtually no change. On the financial side, the CCL and MEP posted more marked increases of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. • Peso bonds closed with slight declines. The session opened with subdued activity, and as the day progressed, the tone turned more negative, with the fixed-rate curve showing losses from the August 2025 maturity onward. The CER curve closed with declines across the board. It’s worth noting that today marked the debut of the BONTE 2030, which stood out for its high trading volume—surpassing that of the shortest fixed-rate bond on the curve (S18J5).
*Banco Macro (BMA): 1Q25 Results* See report here: https://tinyurl.com/AdcapBMA1Q25Results *Banco Macro (BMA US; Not Rated) delivered a soft 1Q25, slightly below expectations,* with net income of ARS 45.7 billion—down 59% q/q and 82% y/y—driving a *ROE of 3.8% and ROA of 1.2%.* Results were weighed down by lower trading income, government securities and a significant loss from inflation adjustments (ARS 267.1 billion) as quarterly inflation rose to 8.9%. Despite this, net interest income remained resilient at ARS 579.2 billion (+2% q/q), though NIM compressed to 23.2% due to lower yields on sovereign assets. *Loan growth stood out, rising 22% q/q and 97% y/y,* pushing the loans-to-deposits ratio to 79.6%, while asset quality remained solid with NPLs at 1.44%. *Deposits grew 5% q/q and 23% y/y,* continuing to outperform the system, and liquidity remained strong with a 68% liquid-assets-to-deposits ratio. Operationally, efficiency improved modestly as expenses fell 10% y/y, bringing the cost-to-income ratio down to 38.2%. *On the call, management reaffirmed solid capitalization (CET1 of 28–29%) and updated 2025 guidance: targeting 60% loan growth, 45% deposit growth, and an ROE of 8–10%.* Macro remains well-capitalized to pursue organic growth or M&A, with the flexibility to return excess capital through dividends by 1Q26 if no acquisition materializes.
*Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL): 1Q25 Results* See report here: https://tinyurl.com/AdcapGGAL1Q25Results *Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL US; Not Rated) reported a soft 1Q25,* though results were broadly in line with expectations and outperformed peers in a challenging sector backdrop. Net income totaled ARS 145.98 billion, reflecting a 63% y/y decline in real terms but still delivering an ROE of 8.88%, slightly above our 8% forecast. The main drag came from a sharp drop in net interest income, down 51% y/y in real terms, as NIM compressed to 19.2% due to weak returns on government securities. *However, we view this impact as transitory, with normalization expected to lift ROE by 2–3 percentage points in the coming quarter.* Loan growth was robust, rising 131% y/y in real terms, outpacing the system, while deposits increased 83% y/y but declined 5% q/q. *The bank adjusted its full-year ROE guidance to 12–13%*, from a previous range of 12–15%. Operationally, Galicia showed improving trends, with net operating income rising 15% q/q despite a 47% y/y decline, supported by a 6% q/q drop in operating costs and a better efficiency ratio of 50.4%. Asset quality remained relatively stable, with NPLs at 3.64% and loan-loss coverage at 143.6%, even as the retail portfolio grew. *Public sector exposure was reduced to 19% of total assets. During the call, management flagged a temporary imbalance between loans and deposits and announced plans to expand institutional funding to support credit growth.* They also noted rising delinquencies in the individual segment, consistent with a more aggressive origination strategy. Looking forward, GGAL emphasized disciplined risk management, the strategic importance of growing retail lending, and completing the operational integration of HSBC Argentina by mid-2025.