Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 3, 2025 at 10:14 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 3 CLOSING COMMENTS:* • The BCS traded mostly around AR 1190 per dollar throughout the day while the Central Bank purchased $17 million in the official market. In the rest of Latam, the Mexican Peso opened under pressure but ended up appreciating over 1% following the news of a one-month pause, while the BRL also strengthened. Colombia and Peru saw similar appreciation. However, the DXY which tracks the dollar against the main global currencies, also gained, hovering around 109, close to its high in January. US equities also opened sharply lower but managed to recover. • In this context, Sovereign bonds opened under pressure and were down 80-90 cents from Friday’s close. The 2035s traded as low as $67.25 but later recovered slightly, closing at $67.65. The 2030s had closed Friday at $75 handle bid, dropped to $74.30 intraday, and finished at 7$4.75. Bottom line, following the Mexico news, bonds rebounded about 50 cents from the day’s lows but still ended at least 35 cents below Friday’s close, which itself was a weak close. • In provincial bonds, the Buenos Aires 6.625s significantly underperformed relative to the rest of the curve. The Buenos 6.625s that traded at $71.10 before Friday’s Mexico headlines at around 4 PM but, ended the session weaker at $70.75 and today closed at $70. Nevertheless, the less liquid BUENOS 5.875 remained unchanged and closed at $61 bid. The spread between these two, which had exceeded $10 at one point, has now narrowed to $9. We also saw slightly better offers in MENDOZA, SALTA, and some PDCAR issues, while demand persisted for PRN, CHACO, and CORDOB. • Bopreas traded with very low volume but performed better than sovereigns given their shorter duration. • Corporates showed remarkable resilience, with YPF, TGS, DECOAR, YPF LUZ, and PAMPA all essentially unchanged. In some cases, such as YPFDAR 2031 and the new 2034, they even closed slightly higher than Friday. This suggests strong demand, likely from Real Money or retail. • As for stocks, the Merval started lower in US dollars, down by 1.43% in the morning. The stocks with the most significant declines were EDN, MELI and PAM, all falling between 3.9% and 4.3%. No stocks showed positive movement, with no ADR exceeding Friday’s closing price. By midday, the market continued its bearish trend, with the energy sector particularly underperforming. By the end of the day, the Merval closed at $2,085, a 2.7% drop. The only stock to post a positive return was CAAP, which gained 0.8%. The banking sector was the worst-performing, with BIOX, PAM, and BMA dropping between 3.5% and 5%. GLOB was the only stock with an increase in volume compared to its three-month average, rising by 48%. We had buying flows in GGAL. From a technical point of view Grupo Galicia (GGAL US) and Loma Negra (LOMA US) finished the day declining to their 50-day moving average. In terms of performance, Argentine ADRs closed 14% below on average from their 5-years high recorded in January 2025. • Peso bonds had a weak start to the week, with fixed-rate instruments down an average of 0.2%, while inflation-linked and dollar-linked bonds remained unchanged from Friday’s close. • Fixed-rate bonds posted mild losses, led by the long end of the curve, where declines ranged from 0.1% to 0.4%, including dual bonds. Trading activity was concentrated in short-term instruments, while medium- and long-term securities saw little to no demand. These moves resulted in a flatter curve, now ranging between 2.4% and 2.1% effective monthly yields. • Inflation-linked bonds held a neutral stance, with the short end virtually unchanged and the long end seeing marginal movements of 0.1%. The TX26 stood out as the most actively traded instrument in the segment, while the rest of the curve saw minimal interest. As a result, the real yield curve remained steady at last week’s levels, hovering between 4% and 8%.

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