
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 4, 2025 at 10:22 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 4 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• Today, the peso depreciated slightly, closing around ARS 1195 per dollar, while the Central Bank made only a small purchase in the official market of $9 million and some intervention in the BCS market.
• US equities opened slightly positive and ended the day with solid gains, after the announced negotiations with Mexico and Canada. In this context, Sovereign bonds traded within a relatively tight range, hovering about 20 cents below yesterday’s close with little volatility. The ARGENT 2035s, stayed mostly between $67.75 and $67.65, while the ARGENT 2030s saw a peculiar move—trading at $74.75, while the 2030s in euros printed at 74.50. Both remained better offered, but what stands out is how the usual $2-3 price spread between the two has almost disappeared. Other euro-denominated bonds also saw their spreads narrow against their dollar counterparts. There was also notable trading in the Arg Law ARGBON 2030, which ended the session offered at $64.75 after trading as high as $66 last week, likely the result of the arbitrage after the BCS intervention impact on local prices.
• These days, we noticed increased activity across Latam, particularly in Ecuador, ahead of this Sunday’s elections. With Novoa leading in the polls, demand picked up. Ecuador, usual benchmark for Argentina, has rallied over 10% after last year’s turbulence.
• In Bopreas, we saw strong demand. The 2026s traded at $95.25, likely near their recent highs.
• Provincial bonds saw almost no activity. Both BUENOS bonds were unchanged, with the 5.875s bid at $61 and the 6.625s at $69.75, with offers about half a point higher. There was some supply in Mendoza and Salta, but liquidity remains thin.
• On the corporate side, resilience continues to be the key theme. We are not seeing selling pressure—if anything, it’s more of a buyers’ market, whether from retail or some Real Money accounts. While Argentina was down 20bps, corporate bonds remained well bid. The new issues, TECPET 2033 and YPFDAR 2034, both traded at $100.50. Demand was also notable in PAMPAR, with the 2034s trading at $100.50, and the 2031s at $102.50. TRAGAS also saw demand, closing at $104.75. Corporates continue to be the safe haven trade.
• As for stocks, in the morning, the Merval index opened higher in US dollars, rising by 1.9%. The top-performing stocks were Telecom (TEO), Edenor (EDN), and Loma Negra (LOMA), with gains ranging between 3.3% and 5%. Geopark (GPRK) was the sole underperformer. By midday, the Utilities and Oil & Gas sectors were the most notable performers. By the end of the session, the Merval closed 0.4% higher in US dollars. The best-performing stocks were BIOX, EDN, and MELI, with gains between 3% and 4.5%. On the downside, BBAR, GPRK, and CAAP underperformed, declining between 1.2% and 1.5%. The stocks with the highest trading volume compared to the three-month average were DESP (87% above average), GLOB (73% above average), and CEPU (7% above average). Relevant News: A 1.5% increase in natural gas distribution tariffs was announced. From a technical analysis perspective, Edenor (EDN) and Cresud (CRESY) crossed above their 50-day exponential moving average, generating a buy signal.
• For Peso bonds, it was a neutral session, with fixed-rate and inflation-linked instruments showing no change on average from yesterday’s close, while dollar-linked bonds declined by 0.2%.
• Fixed-rate bonds traded sideways, with slight losses concentrated at the long end of the curve, where declines ranged from 0.1% to 0.3%. The pullback in long-term securities may be attributed to the central bank’s rate cut, which fell short of the more aggressive adjustment required by the market to extend the rally. In terms of volume, activity was focused on longer-dated instruments, particularly the T13F6 and TTD26.
• Inflation-linked bonds mirrored the fixed-rate segment, posting minor losses in the belly of the curve, with the TZX26 slipping 0.2%. Trading activity remained concentrated in the TX26 and TZXD7, while the overall structure of the curve held steady at yesterday’s levels, maintaining real yields between 4% and 8%.