Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 6, 2025 at 10:02 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 6 CLOSING COMMENTS:* • This morning, Sovereign Bonds opened weak again, extending the losses of the 5 previous days, with the ARGENT 2030 trading at $74 and the ARGENT 2035 at $67. By mid-day, the market found some ground and started to recover as the BCS retreated from ARS 1205 to ARS 1196 per dollar. The ARGBON 2030 led the 40-cent recovery that later spread across the rest of the curve. • The Central Bank purchased $326 million in the official market, the highest daily purchase since April. As the stress in Latam currencies faded, agricultural exporters may have felt more comfortable increasing their dollar sales during the period of lower export taxes. Yesterday, exporters sold $164 million, $100 million more than on Tuesday. • In Provincials, we saw demand for BUENOS, PROVSF, and PDCAR. • Regarding Politics, the Lower House passed the PASO suspension bill with 162 votes in favor (of which 25 were UXP) and 55 against (of which 43 were UXP). The rest of UXP, 30 members, were either abstentions or absents. • As for stocks, the Merval index opened 1.7% higher in USD in the morning, driven by strength in the banking sector. Banco Macro (BMA), Banco BBVA (BBAR), and Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL) led gains, rising between 1.5% and 3%. On the downside, Bioceres (BIOX), IRSA (IRS), and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS) underperformed, declining between 0.5% and 4.65%. By midday, the banking sector remained the standout performer, averaging a 5% increase. The Merval in US dollars closed at $2,109, up 3.4% from the previous session. Banco Macro (BMA), Banco BBVA (BBAR), and Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) were the top performers, surging between 6% and 7.2%. Bioceres (BIOX) sharply underperformed, closing 16.1% lower. Trading volume for BIOX stood out, exceeding its three-month average by 232%. We had buying flows in Banco Macro (BMA), Grupo Supervielle (SUPV), Pampa Energía (PAM), Ternium (TXAR), Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL), and IRSA (IRS). In other news, Bioceres (BIOX) released its guidance for Q2 2025, projecting a 25% YoY decline in sales, a 12.6% YoY drop in gross profit, and a 37.8% YoY contraction in Adjusted EBITDA. Pampa Energía 's credit rating was raised from CCC to B- by S&P. • Peso bonds had a mixed session, with fixed-rate instruments edging up 0.1% on average, while inflation-linked and dollar-linked bonds retreated 0.2% and 0.7%, respectively. • Fixed-rate bonds posted modest gains after several sessions of neutral movement. The uptick was broad-based across the curve, except for the 2027 BONCAP, which slipped 0.1%. Trading activity was concentrated at the long end, particularly in fixed-rate/TAMAR duals. • Inflation-linked bonds closed lower, largely driven by the TZX25, which, alongside the TZXM6, led the segment in volume but dropped 0.6%. Despite the decline, the curve remains virtually unchanged from yesterday, with its endpoints ranging from 4% to 8% real yield, ordered from shorter to longer duration. • Dollar-linked bonds again saw an atypical session, with elevated trading activity compared to usual levels. TV25 and TZV25 fell 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, underscoring weak demand for 2025-maturity instruments, while investor preference tilted toward 2026 securities.

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