
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 10, 2025 at 10:31 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 10 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• Very little activity again, reinforcing the idea that there’s an ongoing portfolio reallocation. Argentina remains in a "no news, bad news" dynamic—those who are long, stay in, index-followers keep reallocating but distressed investors are less involved. In Latam, the focus was on Ecuador’s second-round elections. The expectation was for Noboa to have a stronger showing, but Ecuadorian bonds gave up a large portion of their year-to-date gains after the tight results.
• The BCS opened at ARS 1210 per dollar but was under selling pressure the entire day and closed at ARS 1190 per dollar, with the Central Bank buying $73 million in the official market and with some likely intervention in the BCS market. In this context, Sovereign bonds fell by about half a point. The ARGENT 2030 traded multiple times around $74, the ARGBON 2030 around $64.60, and the ARGENT 2035 also dropped by half a point—though with very low volume. Lastly, the spread between the ARGENT 2030 in euros and its USD counterpart, which had traded at 25 cents last week, widened to 90 cents today—making a bit more sense.
• On the provincial side, we saw some offers in PDCAR 27 and MENDOZ, while PROVSF saw increased demand, though we find it a bit expensive. This demand may be a good opportunity for trimming some exposure as this is a very illiquid that any buyer can move the market. BUENOS bonds were slightly more offered than Friday but still outperformed sovereigns. The 6.625s closed at $69.70, and the 5.875s at $61.75.
• In corporates, resilience continues to surprise. Steady retail demand looking for all kinds of paper—YPF’s entire curve was better bid, along with TRAGAS, TECOAR, and YPFLUZ. No notable supply, but volume remained low.
• As for stocks, the Merval in US dollars opened 1% higher, led by gains in Grupo Supervielle (SUPV), Banco BBVA (BBAR), and Geopark (GPRK), which rose between 3.4% and 4.5%. Declines were observed in Globant (GLOB), Telecom (TEO), and Loma Negra (LOMA), down 0.1% to 1.4%. The banking sector stood out by midday. The index closed at USD 2,010, down 0.57%, with Geopark (GPRK), Bioceres (BIOX), and Edenor (EDN) advancing 2%-3%, while Loma Negra (LOMA), Banco BBVA (BBAR), and Cresud (CRESY) fell 1%-2%. We had buying flows in Metrogas (METR), Central Costanera (CECO2), and Cablevisión (CVH). Selling flows were noted in YPF, Telecom (TEO), Ternium (TXAR), and Central Puerto (CEPU). Bioceres (BIOX) and Pampa Energía (PAM) saw elevated trading volumes, exceeding their three-month averages by 35% and 22%, respectively. Aluar presented a summary of its results for the June-December 2024 period, reporting a ARS 25.8 billion profit for the period; despite challenges, the company operates at full capacity, benefits from rising aluminum prices, and maintains stable exports, with its stock rising 5.8% on the day.
• Peso bonds had a mixed session, with fixed-rate instruments down 0.1% on average, while inflation-linked and dollar-linked bonds edged up 0.2% on average.
• Fixed-rate bonds opened the week with slight declines, particularly in longer-duration securities, while the short end remained flat. The drop in longer maturities may be linked to the upcoming Treasury auction announcement, as investors often sell in the secondary market to participate in the primary market, aiming for a premium.
• Inflation-linked bonds moved in the opposite direction of the fixed-rate segment, posting broad-based gains across the curve, ranging from 0.1% to 0.3%. The market appears to favor inflation-linked instruments ahead of Thursday’s general CPI release. Despite the uptick, the curve remains largely unchanged from last week's close, with its endpoints between 3.5% and 8% real yield, ordered from shorter to longer duration.
• Dollar-linked bonds returned to their usual subdued trading levels, making up less than 0.01% of total peso bond volume. In terms of performance, 2025 maturities outperformed the TZV26, a shift from recent weeks when demand had been stronger for 2026 securities over shorter-dated instruments.