Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 11, 2025 at 03:31 PM
*Loma Negra (LOMA): 4Q24 Earnings Preview, Outlook and Peer Comparison* Link to report: https://tinyurl.com/02112025AdcapLoma4Q24 *Valuation and Peer Comparison* *Loma Negra (LOMA US) is currently trading at US$11.94 per ADR, reflecting an 8.6x EV/LTM EBITDA multiple.* In comparison, Holcim Argentina (HARG AR) trades at a 9.5x EV/LTM EBITDA multiple. Loma Negra’s stock price is currently 1.3x Holcim’s stock in pesos. This ratio stood at 0.8x in our last comparison report, indicating an appreciation of LOMA relative to HARG. Additionally, it has averaged around 1.4x over the past five years, highlighting LOMA’s outperformance compared to its peers in previous months going back to its average ratio. Moreover, the stock is down 10% from its max price while the average ADR is down 17%. *4Q24 Preview:* Loma Negra's performance reflects a continued recovery, with volumes expected to decline ~14% y/y in the quarter but stabilizing in December at -5.4%, revenues keeping pace with inflation through frequent price adjustments, and improved margins driven by disciplined cost management and energy savings. *2025 Outlook:* LOMA's 2024 EBITDA is estimated at USD 200 million, down from USD 250 million in 2023. For 2025, we expect an EBITDA of around USD 220 million (+10% y/y), that would imply an EV/’25 EBITDA of 6.9x, supported by cost efficiencies and a potential market recovery. The company is optimistic about the reactivation of stalled projects and new developments in real estate, oil & gas, mining, and public works. *Dividends:* Loma Negra may revisit its dividend policy, potentially distributing USD 50–80 million (3.6% to 5.8% dividend yield). *Parent company*: InterCement has entered creditor proceedings, Loma Negra remains unaffected, though a separate sale could be considered. To continue reading, please find this report attached. If you have any questions, please let us know.
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