
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 11, 2025 at 09:41 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 11 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• The US equity market opened negative and yields remained under pressure. As Powell's reiterated that rate cuts will be gradual, US 10yr continued moving above 4.50%.
• In this context, Sovereign Bonds opened about 30–35 cents weaker, dropped as much as a full point, and closed roughly a point lower as well. The lowest print for ARGENT 2030 was $72.95 after closing at $74 yesterday, and the last trade went through at $73.15. The ARGENT 2035 dropped from $66 to $64.75 and is finishing around $64.8–$65.0. We saw some demand for the ARGENT 2038s and some supply in the ARGENT 2046s, but overall, volume was low and interest was limited. Some relative value trades emerged, buying the ARGENT 2030 and selling the ARGENT 2035 in line with the more defensive approach we have been recommending.
• On the provincial side, BUENOS traded at least a point lower at its worst levels and is closing about 70 cents down. We saw prints in the 5.875s at $60.50 and in the 6.625s at $68.50. The latter is closing around $68.5–$69.0, while the 5.875s are ending $60.25–61.00. There’s still firm demand for PRN, CORDOB, and CHACO, and today we saw bids in PRIO, which hadn’t been active for a while—up $5 bid. Unlike sovereigns, demand for illiquid provincial bonds remains solid, with bids improving daily.
• In corporates, the same resilience continues—almost tiring at this point, in a good way. We saw only one trade in YPF 34, essentially unchanged, closing 101.25–101.50. There was strong demand for ARCOR 32, TECPET 33, Pampa, and Vista, all closing better bid than yesterday. While sovereigns have dropped 1.5 points over the last two sessions, these bonds are up 25–50 cents, driven by retail demand rotating out of sovereigns.
• The BCS remained stable at ARS 1194 per dollar. The Central Bank purchased $169 million in the official market while we estimate it sold $68 million in the BCS market.
• As for stocks, the Merval in USD dropped 5.1% in the morning session, with declines led by Central Puerto (CEPU), Banco Macro (BMA), and Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL), which fell between 5.4% and 6.0%. Among the gainers, Mercado Libre (MELI) and GeoPark (GPRK) posted increases of 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively, while Despegar (DESP) remained flat. By midday, the Merval reduced its losses to -3.8%. MELI and GPRK continued their upward trend, gaining 1.5% and 1.4%. On the downside, GGAL, Edenor (EDN), and Banco BBVA (BBAR) dropped between 6.2% and 7.1%. The Merval closed at $1903, (-5.3%), with Supervielle (SUPV), BBVA Argentina (BBAR) and Telecom Argentina (TEO) leading the declines, falling between 7.7% and 8.1%. Best performing stocks were Geopark (GPRK), Globant (GLOB) and Mercado Libre (MELI) being flat or falling close to 0.3%. Regarding trading volume, Transportadora Gas del Sur (TGS), Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL), and Edenor (EDN) registered elevated activity, with volumes exceeding their three-month average by 95%, 88%, and 42%, respectively. We had selling flows in Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos (BYMA), Metrogas (METR), Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL), Transener (TRAN) and Pampa Energía (PAM).
• Peso bonds had a negative session, with fixed-rate and dollar-linked instruments down 0.2% on average, while inflation-linked bonds remained unchanged from yesterday.
• Fixed-rate bonds extended their decline, with losses more pronounced at the long end of the curve. The absence of expected short-term cuts to the policy rate, combined with an unfavorable backdrop for equities and sovereign dollar bonds, weighed on the segment. Trading activity was concentrated in TAMAR duals, which posted declines ranging from 0.4% to 1%.
• Inflation-linked bonds held steady, as the uncertain environment continues to favor this hedging segment, particularly ahead of Thursday’s CPI release. The TZX26 stood out in terms of volume, gaining 0.2%. Despite these movements, the curve remains virtually unchanged from last week, with its endpoints between 4% and 8% real yield, ordered from shorter to longer duration.