
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 12, 2025 at 04:14 PM
*Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) 4Q24 Earnings Preview*
Link to report: https://tinyurl.com/02122025AdcapSUPV4Q24Preview
*Grupo Supervielle continues its shift towards private-sector loans, leveraging increasing credit volume to counteract declining spreads.* Trading at *1.9x P/B*, in line with peers, the bank shows potential for growth as both bank and IOL earnings improve. IOL's rapid expansion is noteworthy, with over 580k customers and brokerage fees now contributing 16% of total fee income.
*4Q24 Preview*
ROE Guidance for 2024 is 15%, with Q4 expected at 13-14%, reflecting strong accumulated performance.
Loan Growth: Reached 90-100% YoY, surpassing initial forecasts of 70-80%.
Deposits: Grew 21% nominally in pesos and remained flat in USD; 104% YoY growth system-wide, but down 10-15% in real terms.
NIM expected at 24-25% for 2024, but projected to decline to 18% in 2025.
*2025 Outlook:*
ROE expected to exceed 15%, driven by continued loan growth of at least 60% without requiring equity issuance.
Funding Strategy focuses on private-sector deposits and corporate bonds issuance, shifting away from public sector reliance.
The bank aims for a 60% retail / 40% corporate loan mix to sustain margins and improve cost efficiency.
Mortgage lending is growing, now 10% of total loans, with no securitization market limiting funding alternatives.
Banking industry's tailwind and IOL’s growth provide a favorable outlook, though NIM compression and competitive pressures remain challenges.
To continue reading, please find this report attached. If you have any questions, please let us know.
