
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 12, 2025 at 10:25 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 12 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• Argentine bonds slightly negative—actually, the market opened flat. Then, after US CPI came in higher than expected both monthly and annually, sending U.S. rates higher—10-year yields jumped 10bps, triggering a decent sell-off. However, long-end rates then reversed almost 1.5 points, and the 10-year is closing at 4.63%. Sovereign bonds, which were initially under pressure like the rest of EM Bonds, finished bounced about a point higher than yesterday’s close, recovering a good part of yesterday losses. For example, ARGENT 2030s last trade was at $74.30, $1.05 above yesterday's close at $73.25. Just like there was no clear reason for yesterday’s drop, there’s no major catalyst for today’s rally either. Some speculated about Minister Caputo's comments at the close, saying we’re getting closer to an IMF deal, but nothing concrete. Once again, we saw some relative value trades in 2030s vs. 2035s.
• On local law bonds, we saw demand for ARGBON 2030 around mid-morning kicked off the bid across all global bonds post-CPI. In Boprea, the only segment that weakened relative to sovereigns was the 2027 1C and 1D, which ended the day half a point lower versus the 1-point gain in sovereigns.
• On the provincial side, the spread between the BUENOS 5.875s and 6.625s continues tightening. The 5.875s closed at $64.63, while the 6.625s finished $68.3–$68.875. We saw some selling in Santa Fe, along with continued sales in the other provinces that have been offered over the last few days.
• In corporates, for the first time, we saw some "bid wanted" action, with a few bonds closing slightly weaker. However, retail demand remains strong, keeping prices well-supported. After the recent run-up, corporates didn’t really drop. Today—offers were slightly wider than yesterday, but bids remained practically unchanged.
• The BCS remained stable at ARS 1194 per dollar. The Central Bank interrupted its buying trend without intervention in the official market while we estimate it sold $31 million in the BCS market.
• As for stocks, In the morning, the Merval opened down 1.6% in USD,, with notable declines in Bioceres (BIOX), YPF, and Transportadora Gas del Sur (TGS), which fell between 2.5% and 5.2%. On the positive side, Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) and Despegar (DESP) gained 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively. By midday, the Merval rebounded, rising 2.2% and the most notable sector was Utilities. The Index closed almost flat, up 0.1%, with IRSA (IRS) gaining 7.1%, while Bioceres (BIOX) ended down 14.8%. Regarding trading volume, Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS) and Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL) had more activity than their three-month average by 110% and 109%, respectively. We had selling flows in Pampa Energía (PAM), YPF, and Banco Macro (BMA). Bioceres (BIOX) (down 14.8%) presented its 2Q25 results yesterday after-market announcing the cease of production and commercialization of seeds to focus on its biotech business (gene development). The results were in line with the guidance provided last week, with sales of US$106 million and EBITDA of US$15.4 million.
• Peso bonds had a positive session, with fixed-rate and inflation-linked instruments rising 0.1% on average, while dollar-linked bonds gained 0.4%.
• Fixed-rate bonds returned to positive territory on a day when the market appeared to be in wait-and-see mode ahead of the auction, with no significant price action or trading activity. The long end of the curve slipped 0.1%, while the short end remained stable or edged higher. The curve saw slight movements compared to last week, with its endpoints ranging between 2.6% and 2.1% effective monthly, ordered from shorter to longer duration.
• Inflation-linked bonds extended their weekly gains, with notable demand at the short end of the curve, led by the TZX25, which rose 0.3%. The market continues to favor inflation-linked securities over fixed-rate instruments ahead of the CPI release, reflecting broader uncertainty in the current environment. The curve remained unchanged, holding between 4% and 8% real yield.