Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 14, 2025 at 09:49 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 14 CLOSING COMMENTS:* • It was a very quiet day today. With Monday being a holiday in the US, the market closed early. Treasuries remained well bid, supporting a modest rally in Argentine bonds. They opened stronger, traded up to 50 cents above yesterday’s close, with ARGENT 2030 reaching $75.25 at its peak. There was some mild correction during the session, with the lowest print at $74.90, and closed around those levels. Flow was light and Argentina remained range-bound without a clear direction. • Boprea C and D due in 2027—one potentially ahead of maturity and the other at full term—are starting to look relatively attractive, now yielding close to 11%, approaching the levels of the longest-duration global bonds. • Provincial bonds were better bid, but volumes were also thin. The BUENOS 6.625% traded at $69.75, roughly in line with the gains seen in sovereigns. Some supply was seen in PDCAR 27 and Santa Fe. • Corporates continued to climb, with several names hitting new highs. Clearly, Argentina’s blue-chip corporate bonds are closely tracking Treasuries, and with Treasuries up half a point, many of the bonds we quote also gained about that much. There was decent flow in YPF’s curve, particularly in the 31s and 34s, with the 34s trading at $102, reaching new highs. We also saw demand for TGS and Pampa, and some two-way flow in TECOAR 31 earlier in the session, though it ended unchanged. • The BCS was under some pressure and closed slightly above ARS 1,200 per dollar, while the Central Bank purchased $37 million in the official market. • As for stocks, the Merval closed up 1.48%, recovering sharply in the afternoon after a volatile session. The index hit an intraday low of $1,945 around midday before rebounding steadily, ending the day at $1,975, near its session high of $1,988. The rally was supported by strength in Utilities and positive sentiment following the lower-than-expected inflation print. Metrogas (METR) +4.95%, Ternium (TXAR) +4.85%, and Transener (TRAN) +2.80% were the top performers, reflecting strong buying interest in the utilities sector. We observed buyers in CECO2 and CVH, supporting the upward momentum in the market. • Banco Galicia (GGAL) 4Q24 Preview: The quarter is expected to reflect a similar margin dynamic to 3Q24, with some compression but also tailwinds from the liberalization of fixed-term deposit rates. Key highlights: Loan growth likely exceeded 80% in real terms, with the peso portfolio expanding 45-50% and the dollar-denominated portfolio surging nearly 400%, fueled by deposit inflows from a tax amnesty program and exporter demand. Deposits showed a marginal increase in peso deposits, while dollar deposits grew by 60% y/y. However, some of the inflows from the tax amnesty exited during 4Q24. • A strong session for peso bonds, with fixed-rate instruments climbing 0.6% on average, while inflation-linked and dollar-linked bonds gained 0.3%. • Fixed-rate bonds ended the week with broad-based gains across the curve. The January CPI print was well received by the market, driving demand, particularly in the long end, which had been under pressure due to pre-auction uncertainty and CPI fears earlier in the week. The curve flattened, with its endpoints between 2.3% and 2.1% effective monthly, ordered from shorter to longer duration. • Inflation-linked bonds mirrored the fixed-rate segment, with gains concentrated in 2025 maturities. Activity remained in line with typical levels, contrasting with the fixed-rate segment, where volume surged to new highs. The curve saw slight compression in the short and mid-sections, ranging from 3% to 8% real yield.

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