
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 17, 2025 at 09:54 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 17 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
- Over the weekend, President Javier Milei posted and pinned on X an endorsement of a cryptocurrency, $LIBRA, purportedly designed to support Argentina’s libertarian movement. Right at that moment, its market capitalization surged to $4bn—only to plummet to $100m shortly thereafter. More than four hours later, Milei deleted the first tweet and posted a new one with a disclaimer, arguing a lack of familiarity with the quality and transparency of the new currency. The event prompted several private denunciations and a judicial investigation in Argentina.
- Tonight, at 8pm (BA Time), President Milei will be interviewed to address this issue.
- In the local market, Sovereign Bonds were under pressure the entire day. The ARGENT 2030 closed -2% and the ARGENT 2035 closed -3%.
- The BCS also jumped almost 2% and closed at ARS 1222 per dollar while the Central Bank sold $15 million in the official market.
- As for stocks, the Merval dropped 4.17%, closing at $1,840, amid broad market weakness following the $LIBRA news that triggered a sharp sell-off. The index opened lower and continued its downward trend throughout the session, hitting a low of $1,826 before recovering slightly into the close. The absence of US markets added to volatility, with the last 30 minutes showing intensified swings due to local mutual funds selling. The biggest losers of the day were Central Puerto (CEPU) -10.0%, Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) -7.38%, and Sociedad Comercial del Plata (COME) -7.05%, reflecting the widespread risk-off sentiment across the market. We observed buyers in YPFD, GGAL, PAMP, YPFD, CECO, and CVH, while CEPU and BHIP saw selling pressure.
- Peso bonds started the week on a negative note, recovered by midday, but later fell back. Fixed-rate instruments posted average losses of 0.4% on the long end. Interest remained focused on the short end of the curve, reflecting a more defensive stance amid uncertainty over the coming days. Yields closed between 2.5% and 2.1% effective monthly.
- Inflation-linked bonds faced pressure as well, though the mid-curve around 2026 maturities showed resilience, managing to hold steady and closing up 0.2%. This maturities concentrated most of the volume, with real rates ranging between 6% and 8%.
- Dollar-linked bonds saw significant interest in short-term maturities, reflecting improved capacity to build meaningful hedging positions compared to a few weeks ago. Yields closed at 10% for March and 11% for June.