
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 19, 2025 at 09:57 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 19 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• Sovereign Bonds opened 25 cents lower, and extended losses to 50 cents by noon. In the afternoon, some buyers appeared and attempted a recovery but ultimately closed down by an average of 50 cents. For reference, yesterday we mentioned the last trade in ARGENT 2030 was at $74.35, while today multiple trades occurred around $73.75, 60 cents lower. The ARGENT 2035 ended $64.4, and we saw significant activity in ARGENT 2041 around $60.30. Some relative value trades took place in 2030/2041 and 2030/2035 pairs, but overall, the market remained weak into the close.
• Boprea saw no activity. In provincial bonds, prices remained stable. BUENOS ended unchanged at $68-$68.5, with some trades occurring between $68.25 and $68.40. We noted offers in PROVSF and demand for CHUBUT 2030, while buyers remained engaged in CHACO, PRN, and CORDOB.
• On the corporate side, YPFDAR 2034 traded between $101.80 and $102, essentially unchanged. The 9.5% 2031s, which saw demand yesterday, traded at $106.80, while the 8.75% 2031s—historically 50bps above the 9.5%—traded at $104.75. Beyond that, we observed demand in TECOAR 2031, TRAGAS 2031, and YPFLUZ 2032, with notable stability across the corporate space. It wouldn’t be surprising if retail accounts have been rotating out of sovereigns over the past few weeks, moving into corporates—leaving some yield on the table but feeling more comfortable in terms of risk, consistently favoring strong names.
• The BCS was under pressure again and closed at ARS 1218 per dollar, slightly higher than yesterday after some intervention that we estimate at $39 million. The Central Bank purchased $147 million in the official market.
• As for stocks, the Merval index closed up 0.41%, finishing at $1,967. The correction in this market continues to fade, as some recent polls indicate that Milei's support remains steady. The biggest movers of the day were Telecom Argentina (TECO2) +5.82%, Metrogas (METR) +2.03%, and Transener (TRAN) +1.81%, with TECO2 continuing its rally after gaining 9.14% yesterday, driven by news of Telefónica selling its operations in Argentina, Uruguay, and Colombia. On the downside, BYMA fell 0.68%, Central Puerto (CEPU) dropped 0.92%, and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGSU2) declined 1.63%, showing some weakness in utilities and financials.
• For Peso Bonds it was a neutral session, with fixed-rate instruments down 0.1% on average, inflation-linked bonds unchanged, and dollar-linked bonds up 0.2%.
• Both the fixed-rate and inflation-linked curves had a weak session. They initially posted slight gains before reversing later in the day. The moves in the dollar likely contributed to uncertainty among peso bondholders. Losses in fixed-rate bonds were concentrated at the long end, while in the inflation-linked curve, declines were focused on 2025 maturities.
• Dollar-linked bonds continued to see elevated activity, though concentrated exclusively in the TZV25, which gained 0.2%. The strong volume and demand for the TZV25 may be linked to arbitrage opportunities, as its peso-denominated synthetics offer a higher yield than the corresponding LECAP.