Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 20, 2025 at 10:08 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 20 CLOSING COMMENTS:* • This morning, Sovereign Bonds started weak but traded within a range all day. For example, the ARGENT 2030 bottomed at $73.55 and hovered around $73.65 most of the day. The ARGENT 2035 ranged between $64 and $64.10, the 2041 broke $60 to $59.95, and the 2038 at $68 to $68.25. Toward the end of the session, there was a meaningful rebound, of about 50 cents up from the day’s lows, probably expecting some good news coming from Milei and Caputo's meetings with the IMF. Moreover, in the afternoon, the Senate rejected the opposition's motion to create a special committee to investigate the Libra gate. • There was some demand for the ARGBON 2030 and Bopreas remained very illiquid. The 27B traded between $92 and $92.5, and the initial ones traded around $68. • Regarding Provincials, the BUENOS 6 5/8s saw decent volume, and as usual, there was demand for CHACO, PRN, and similar names. Some supply came from PROVSF again, while CHUBUT was bid in the mid-$98, along with CORDOB. • On the Corporate side, demand remains strong. The YPF curve saw the 2034s trading above $102, hitting an all-time high. There was some two-way flow in the YPF 2027s, and the 2026s gained at least half a point this week. At 102 levels, they’re yielding around 5.5%. Some flow is clearly moving into them given the volume and the unexpected price surge. Other first-tier names also performed well—PANAME 2032 gained a point, TECPET remains highly demanded, and both PAMPAR 2031 and 2034 continue to see strong bids. Corporates have been in demand for weeks now. Flow was light overall. • The BCS remained stable at ARS 1215 per dollar, while the Central Bank purchased $83 million in the official market and we estimate some low intervention in the BCS market. • As for stocks, the Merval index closed up 0.36%, finishing at $1,984. The index saw early weakness but recovered strongly throughout the afternoon, closing near session highs. Among the biggest winners, YPF gained 3.19%, Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGSU2) rose 3.01%, and BYMA climbed 2.29%. Telecom Argentina (TECO2) continued its winning streak, advancing another 1.54% after several strong sessions. On the downside, Edenor (EDN) dropped 2.72%, Metrogas (METR) fell 2.18%, and Cresud (CRES) lost 1.85%. YPF and Vista surged 4.77%, following the global rally in oil companies as energy prices remained strong. While the market managed to close in positive territory, we observed selling pressure in several key sectors, including banks, telecoms, and utilities. The profit-taking in these areas suggests some rotation in portfolios, as investors took advantage of recent gains. This trend could indicate a shift toward more cyclical plays or a broader repositioning ahead of key macroeconomic events. After the close, MELI reported higher earnings than expected and is up almost 12% in the after market. • A negative session for peso bonds, with fixed-rate instruments unchanged on average, inflation-linked bonds down 0.2%, and dollar-linked bonds dropping 1.3%. • The peso curve continues to show signs of fragility. While the session opened positively, all three segments trended lower by the close. Losses in fixed-rate bonds were concentrated in the mid-section of the curve, whereas inflation-linked securities saw broad declines starting from December 2025 maturities. • Dollar-linked bonds once again recorded elevated activity, with today's volume reaching a record high for the segment. Nearly half of the total traded volume in inflation-linked bonds was exchanged in dollar-linked instruments, though almost entirely in the TZV25. Performance-wise, the TZV25 dropped 1.5%, widening the yield gap between its peso-denominated synthetic and LECAPs, further enhancing its relative appeal.

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