
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 24, 2025 at 10:01 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 24 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• Today was an extremely quiet one with very little flow, despite euro bonds trading higher and US equities ending positive after a weak start. There’s a clear lack of focus or conviction in the market, mainly due to the absence of Argentina-related news.
• ARGENT 2030s were offered at $74 all day, while the 35s traded at $64.50. Toward the end of the session, we saw some ARGBON 2030 prints at $64.25 and ARGENT 2035s at $64.50, but overall, very few trades.
• Bopreas outperformed sovereigns—while sovereigns were flat to lower, Bopreas, which were yielding around 11% last time we discussed, rallied at least 1.5 points.
• Corporates remain resilient—not necessarily pushing higher, but holding their ground. For Argentine investors, the lack of news isn’t seen as a reason to sell but rather as a reason to stay put. In some names, it’s not exactly a safe haven, but they feel more comfortable in corporates than sovereigns.
• With markets still on correction mode, Sovereign Bonds were under pressure the entire day even after the news of the weekend of President Trump supporting Milei. It didn’t change the broader trend as the lack of news isn’t helping.
• The BCS rose to ARS 1120 per dollar. The Central Bank purchased $129 million in the official market and we estimate there was no intervention in the BCS.
• As for stocks, the Merval index closed down 0.67%, finishing at $1,928. The index experienced a sharp drop in the morning, reaching its intraday low around midday, but gradually recovered in the afternoon, paring some of its losses before the close. The biggest gainers of the day were BYMA (+4.62%), Telecom Argentina (TECO2 +3.35%), and Loma Negra (LOMA +2.73%), while Pampa Energía (PAM -3.11%), Ternium (TXAR -2.64%), and Banco Macro (BMA -2.27%) led the declines. Ecogas (ECOG) rose 0.71% after announcing a dividend payment of AR$1,140.903 per share, offering a 3.6% dividend yield. Meanwhile, Globant (GLOB) rebounded, recovering part of its Friday sell-off, as investors saw an opportunity to reposition after last week's sharp decline. The market traded in line with global trends, with no major domestic news driving movements. Investors appear to be in a wait-and-see mode, as there are no immediate catalysts in Argentina prompting significant shifts in positioning.
• For peso bonds, it was a neutral session, with fixed-rate, inflation-linked, and dollar-linked instruments closing unchanged on average.
• The local market remains indecisive, lacking a clear trend as it awaits the menu for the upcoming auction on Wednesday, the 26th. Maturities are manageable, with 2.7 trillion due from the S28F5 and TG25.
• Fixed-rate bonds opened with slight gains but saw weakness in the long end, which reversed to close down 0.2%. Inflation-linked bonds remained heavy, starting flat and turning weaker toward the close, ending the session with losses ranging from 0.1% to 0.4%.