
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 25, 2025 at 02:01 PM
*Metrogas (METR): 4Q24 Earnings Preview*
See full report here: https://tinyurl.com/02252025AdcapMETR4Q24Preview
Metrogas is set to release its 4Q24 results on March 6th (after market close).
*Revenue stability in 2024 was driven by earlier tariff adjustments and inflation-linked increases since August, laying a strong foundation for 2025. The company is expected to report stable 4Q24 results,* supported by tariff increases despite rising inflation-driven costs. For 2025, free cash flow is projected to remain sustainable, ensuring liquidity for operations and debt refinancing, though dividend payments are currently restricted due to existing debt obligations.
*Trading at 4.8x 25E EV/EBITDA*, Metrogas appears slightly undervalued within the gas distribution sector, particularly given its strong liquidity, though limited upside remains compared to regional peers trading at 6.3x. Regulatory risks, especially around the ongoing Comprehensive Tariff Review (RQT), remain a key uncertainty. EBITDA is expected to grow from US$180 million in 2024 to US$220 million in 2025, driven by the full-year impact of tariff adjustments and RQT increases. While the company faces regulatory and refinancing risks, recent measures—like tariff hikes, bank debt refinancing, and positive debt issuance precedents—have mitigated some concerns. Metrogas plans to resolve USD 183 million in working capital liabilities and is exploring new peso-denominated debt to ease financial constraints, which could allow dividend payments to resume for the first time since 2001.
