Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 25, 2025 at 02:16 PM
*Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS): 4Q24 Earnings Preview and Model Update* See full report here: https://tinyurl.com/02252025AdcapTGS4Q24Preview TGS is set to release its 4Q24 results on Thursday, February 27th (after market close). *TGS is expected to report positive 4Q24 results*, with projected revenue of USD 330 million (+25% q/q, +46% y/y) driven by tariff adjustments and improved liquids pricing. EBITDA is forecasted at USD 190 million (+32% q/q, +211% y/y), with margins expanding to 58%. Key segments include Natural Gas Transportation with revenue stabilizing at USD 133 million, Liquids rebounding to 280 ktn with prices up 25% y/y, and Midstream revenue estimated at USD 56 million. For the full year, EBITDA is expected to reach USD 1,138 million (+19% y/y). We have updated our model with improved liquids prices and transportation tariffs, while also reducing country risk and adjusting the WACC for a more normalized scenario in Argentina for 2025. *Discussions are ongoing regarding the RQT, GPNK extension, and Liquids project*. Discussions on the RQT are ongoing, with impact depending on the adjustment mechanism and Regulatory Asset Base. TGS expects to maintain USD 300 million quarterly EBITDA from transportation. The tender for the GPNK extension, managed by ENARSA, is still pending. The Liquids project is in data collection and an FID expected in 2H25.
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