
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 25, 2025 at 10:24 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 25 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• Flow was terrible today—extremely quiet, and this “summer lull” in South America keeps dragging on. Argentine bonds were among the few that didn’t catch up with the US Treasuries rally, ending in negative territory despite the long bond rallying over a point. There’s a strong flight to quality, since Trump took over volatility has surged. Today, the Nasdaq was down 1%. The UST 10yr yield closed at 4.30% and EM Bonds reached October's 3y highs.
• In this context, Argentine Bonds continued under pressure and were down 30-40 cents in the afternoon to close 20 cents lower than yesterday's close after a small recovery. The ARGENT 2030 saw some flow between $73.40 and $73.60, the ARGENT 2035s between $64 and $64.45, the 2041s hit a high of $59.90 but mostly traded around $59.60. The ARGBON 2030 traded at $64.30, but overall, very little volume.
• On provincials, BUENOS remains heavy with some selling around $67.65, and we haven’t seen buyers in a while. Some two-way flow in CHUBUT and PROVSF, while the BUEAIR saw demand at mid-market $100.50. The news on La Rioja staying in default after failing another coupon payment was expected.
• Bopreas were weaker, with the 27D trading at $91.40 but still outperforming sovereigns.
• Corporates saw a few more offers pop up, but overall, everything remains well bid. In YPF’s curve, the 2034s are still holding at $102—very resilient and stable. The 2031s 9.5% traded actively around $107, and there’s still demand in the 2026s and two-way flow in the 2027s. We also saw some trades in Vista, Tecpetrol 33, and Pampa.
• Equities opened weak, especially banks, with many stocks down 5% before recovering slightly, but closing 2% down at $1874. We started seeing a rebound in both equities and bonds after the economic activity data came out in the afternoon. Solid 5.5% which Minister Caputo quickly made sure to highlight. That sparked a bit of flow, lifting prices by around 15 cents.
• The BCS remained stable at ARS 1215 per dollar. The Central Bank bought another $156 million and we estimate it sold $15 million in the BCS market.
• For Peso Bonds it was a neutral session, with fixed-rate and dollar-linked instruments unchanged on average, while inflation-linked bonds gained 0.2%.
• Local market trading remains subdued, with a cautious tone, particularly ahead of the February inflation data. Activity was concentrated at the short end of the fixed-rate curve and the middle of the CER curve.
• The session opened with gains, but by the close, the short and mid-sections of the fixed-rate curve saw declines of 0.1% to 0.4%. Meanwhile, the CER curve held its gains, with the long end rising by around 0.3%.