Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 26, 2025 at 09:12 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 26 CLOSING COMMENTS:* • US equities opened strong today, the Nasdaq was up over a point by noon, but turned negative in the afternoon closing almost flat. The flight to quality into Treasuries continued with UST 10yr closing at 4.25%. • In this context, sovereigns opened 25 cents higher bouncing from yesterday's correction. However, after locals joined, bonds turned flat. The ARGENT 2030s traded between $73.70 and $73.90, and closed at $73.60. The ARGENT 2041s traded around $60, similar to yesterday, with slightly more activity but still a very quiet market. • We’ve been saying this for a while now: no news is bad news. Argentina has lost some focus, and with the daily volatility coming from US, Trump, macro uncertainty, and geopolitics, it’s not helping. Plus, the flight to quality is evident in Treasuries. • Bopreas remained very illiquid, with the 27D closing around $90.25 mid-market, but with zero activity. Same old story with provincials—selling across the board, unchanged from yesterday. BUENOS 2037s mid-market at $67.65, the less liquid ones at $59.25. Two-way flow continues in CHUBUT and Mendoza, and we’re still seeing demand for PRN, CORDOB, CHACO, and FUEGO, but very little trading overall. • On corporates, for the first or second consecutive day, we’re starting to see some investors looking to exit—not aggressively hitting bids, but rather testing the market. The rally seems to have definitively ended, and things are feeling slightly heavier. Activity was mostly in YPF with the 2031s, which were very active previously, still holding around $107, same as yesterday. Telecoms are looking a bit heavier. • The BCS remained stable at ARS 1215 per dollar and the Central Bank bought another $111 million in the official market. • As for stocks, Argentine equities today mirrored Nasdaq volatility. At one point, they were up 3% and are now flat to negative. • A neutral session for peso bonds, with fixed-rate instruments up 0.1% on average, while inflation-linked and dollar-linked bonds remained unchanged. • Peso bonds continued to trade sideways, with both the fixed-rate and CER segments maintaining the sluggish tone observed throughout the week. This is particularly due to the market's wait-and-see approach ahead of the auction results. • The session opened weak, with mixed movements across both segments. By the close, losses in the fixed-rate curve were concentrated at the long end, starting from the T13F6, while declines in the CER curve were spread across multiple maturities without a clear pattern. • The Secretary of Finance announced the auction results, awarding $4.4 trillion, resulting in a 165% rollover. Regarding cutoff rates, the S18J5 was the most impacted, though, overall, fixed-rate instruments cleared at a slight premium of approximately 0.1% effective monthly. Demand was primarily focused on the S18J5 and S31M5.

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