Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 27, 2025 at 10:27 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 27 CLOSING COMMENTS:* • Well, a black day. US Treasuries opened stable and US equity market started off strong. Nvidia reported solid sales, futures were up, and Argentina opened weaker but only 10 cents below yesterday's close. In the afternoon, Trump’s comments that tariffs will kick in on March 4 sent the Nasdaq from +1% to negative in minutes. It later recovered, but closed heavy—down 2.8%, while the S&P closed down 1.6%. • As we have been pointing out, the lack of external flow is pushing local investors to sell and today was no exception. There’s a sell-off and the "no news, bad news" environment has accelerated after Trump's comments. The market consolidated around -20 cents through midday and but the selling pressure continued in the afternoon and closed 60 cents below yesterday’s close, with some bonds down more than a point from where they traded yesterday morning. A clear example is the ARGENT 2035, which traded at $64.70 yesterday morning and hit $63.60 today, below Libra's low. There weren’t many prints, but the ARGENT 2030 closed with a $72 handle, last seen at $72.95. • On the provincial side, BUENOS traded ex-coupon today, which was expected to drop 70 cents but ended up down 1.5 points. There was some flow in Chubut and Santa Fe, and we’re still tracking demand for PRN, Chaco, FUEGO, and CORDOB. • Corporate bonds massively outperformed sovereigns—not rallying, but also not seeing any aggressive selling. Retail demand is keeping them firm, down just 10 cents at most, while sovereigns fell a full point between yesterday and today. In fact, corporates are hovering around their highs, while sovereigns have dropped roughly 3 points in recent weeks. • The BCS jumped ARS 10 to ARS 1225 per dollar while the Central Bank purchased only $23 million in the official market. • Argentine equities took a beating, with banks down 6-8% on average, and others also down over 6%. • Peso bonds had a negative day as well, with fixed-rate down by an average of 0.3%, inflation-linked down by 0.6%, and dollar-linked up by 0.2%. • The local market experienced widespread selling of peso bonds, fixed-rate, and CER, with the securities of longest duration being the most affected. This aligns with the Treasury’s recent behavior in auctions, with a focus on shortening duration. • Fixed-rate and inflation-linked bonds opened neutral, but by midday, sales picked up, especially in CER bonds, which saw more pronounced declines than fixed-rate bonds. The fixed-rate curve ranges between 2.6% and 2.3% effective monthly, while the CER curve ranges from 5% to 9.5% real yield, ordered by duration from shorter to longer.

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