
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
February 28, 2025 at 10:07 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES FEBRUARY 28 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• Another weak day in terms of flow. The market recovered a bit toward the end, closing almost unchanged from yesterday’s weak levels. Once again, locals were selling, while foreigners did extremely low volume. The ARGENT 2030 traded with a $72 handle but closed at $73 bid. The ARGENT 2035s traded in the $63s.
• In Bopreas, both 27C and 27D traded at $90 but remained offered at that level.
• On the provincial side, BUENOS bonds are now ex-coupon, same as yesterday, but with the added noise from Milei and Kicillof’s tweet plus the decline in sovereigns, and the recent spread tightening, we also saw some selling pressure. In this context, the bid offer spread widened to more than $1 and probably some trade below with a $65 handle. At this level, bonds are yielding 15.60%. Still seeing two-way flow in Santa Fe, and corporates remain highly resilient—completely immune to Argentina’s sell-off. The market is mostly driven by retail demand, and we’re not seeing Real Money exiting at this point.
• The BCS stayed relatively stable at ARS 1225 per dollar. Keep in mind that the market will be closed until Wednesday, so today was effectively a multi-day settlement. The Central Bank sold $350 million in the official market, likely due to the coupon and amortization payment of BUENOS, $364 million in total.
• For peso bonds, it was a positive day with fixed-rate up an average of 0.3%, inflation-linked up 0.7% and dollar-linked up 0.1%.
• Peso bonds posted strong gains despite continued moves in the dollar, suggesting a potential floor after yesterday’s sell-off, with inflation-linked bonds rebounding more sharply than fixed-rate instruments.
• The fixed-rate curve saw strong gains at the short end, while the long end continued to decline, keeping the curve nearly flat and making duration extension largely indifferent.
• The CER curve registered broad gains, recovering from the previous session’s sharp drop. Demand was concentrated at the short end, particularly in the March and May 2025 maturities, which rose between 0.5% and 0.7%.