*MARKET ROUND-OFF (25.02.2025)* *(By: D'ORIGIN – Louisa Rahardjo)* https://t.me/D_ORIGIN https://bit.ly/IGorigin https://originaturuang.com/07 *"JCI & Most Asian Shares Faltered on Tuesday Amid Global Uncertainties"* The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) dropped amid global trade uncertainties and the Danantara controversy, while investors also weighed factors such as the launch of the bullion bank and domestic money supply data. *_JCI fell 162.51 points (-2.41%) to 6,587.09, while the LQ45 index dropped 22.23 points (-2.89%) to 747.70._* Trading volume reached 17.67 billion shares, with a total transaction value of 11.48 trillion rupiah, including 941 billion rupiah from negotiated deals. Market activity recorded 118 stocks advancing, 489 declining, and 175 unchanged. *Corporate News* PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) announced that on February 24, 2025, it signed key agreements with its subsidiary PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama and PT Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) as the Loan Facility Agent. These include a third amendment and an additional commitment agreement with PT Bank Central Asia (BCA) for a $250 million Accordion Facility. BCA will provide $75 million and Rp2.887 trillion in financing. PT Cikarang Listrindo Tbk (POWR) reported a net profit of $75.3 million in 2024, down 2.12% from 2023. POWR recorded $547 million in electricity sales, with 86% from industrial customers and 14% from PT PLN (Persero). *Currencies* *_Most Asian currencies edged lower on Tuesday as investors were cautious following President Donald Trump's reaffirmation of tariff plans on Mexico and Canada, while the Bank of Korea reduced interest rates as expected._* *_The US Dollar Index was 0.1% lower in Asia hours after hitting a two-month low in the precious session. Dollar Index Futures ticked slightly down._* The BoK lowered benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, aiming to stimulate domestic demand amid escalating economic challenges. This decision aligns with market expectations and marks the third rate cut since October 2024. Concurrently, the BoK lowered its annual growth forecast to 1.5% for 2025, reflecting concerns over sluggish economic performance. The South Korean won weakened slightly against the U.S. dollar, with the USD/KRW pair inching 0.2% higher to 1,430.78 won. The pair had fallen to 1423.97 won on Monday. Despite the recent appreciation in the last two months, won's performance remains influenced by external factors, including ongoing U.S. tariff disputes and global trade protectionism. These challenges have prompted the BOK to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy stance to support economic growth. Analysts predict that the BOK may implement additional rate cuts by the end of the year to counteract these headwinds, even as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to make fewer adjustments. The Indian rupee's USD/INRpair rose 0.3%. The Chinese yuan’s offshore pair USD/CNH was largely unchanged, while the Singapore dollar’s USD/SGD edged slightly higher. The Australian dollar’s AUD/USD pair was also muted. Bucking the regional trend, the Japanese yen's USD/JPY pair edged 0.2% lower due to its safe-haven appeal. *_The Indonesian rupiah’s USD/IDR pair gained 0.4%. The JISDOR slipped 13 points to 16,316 against the U.S. dollar, while the spot exchange rate weakened 35 points to 16,340._* *Cryptocurrencies* *_Bitcoin fell to a three-month low on Tuesday, as renewed global trade tensions and a major cryptocurrency exchange rattled investor confidence and triggered a broad market sell-off._* The sell-off was triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s reaffirmation of tariff threats against Mexico and Canada, which reignited concerns over global trade disputes and risk appetite. As of 03:15 ET (8:15 GMT), Bitcoin fell roughly 6% to $89,843, its lowest level since mid-November. Trump has reaffirmed his intention to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, set to take effect on March 4. Despite ongoing negotiations and efforts by both neighboring countries to enhance border security and curb fentanyl trafficking, the administration remains steadfast in its decision. This move has introduced significant uncertainty into global markets, including the cryptocurrency sector. *_Investors are concerned that the impending tariffs could disrupt trade relations and economic stability, prompting a shift away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies._* Analysts suggest that the tariffs could lead to increased inflation and weaker economic growth, factors that traditionally impact investor confidence in volatile markets such as cryptocurrencies. While some view Bitcoin as a hedge against economic instability, the immediate reaction indicates a cautious approach from investors amid the current uncertainty. *Global Markets* *_U.S. consumer confidence is expected to have weakened for a third straight month in February, according to estimates for a key index due out on Tuesday._* *_Economists expect the Conference Board's consumer confidence index to have slipped to 102.7 this month, down from 104.1 in January._* Recent data has shown a steep fall in retail sales activity, a deterioration in consumer sentiment, and one-year inflation expectations jumping to a 15-month high. Households have been fretting over whether it is too late to avoid the potential impact of Trump's tariff plans on price growth, a University of Michigan survey indicated. Still, while the figures presented some "red flags" around the U.S. economy, the broader backdrop remains "OK" and "should help reduce the risk of steep equity slumps," according to analysts at Vital Knowledge. Meanwhile, markets will be keeping tabs on statements from Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan on Tuesday morning. Despite the relatively downbeat consumer sentiment numbers, a largely resilient U.S. economy and an inflation rate well above the Fed's 2% target have bolstered wagers that the central bank will not be in a rush to roll out interest rate cuts this year. At their last gathering in January, Fed officials pushed pause on a series of rate reductions that stretched back into 2024 and backed a wait-and-see approach to any further cuts. Minutes from the meeting also indicated that policymakers also weighed slowing or temporarily halting a drawdown in its balance sheet because of uncertainty over how the U.S. Treasury will manage debt issuance in the coming months. *_U.S. stock futures pointed to a subdued open on Tuesday, in a sign of ongoing caution among investors ahead of crucial quarterly results from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) later this week._* The main indices on Wall Street ended a choppy session in mixed fashion on Monday, with the benchmark S&P 500 retreating by 0.5% and the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 0.1%. The laggard was the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which dropped by 1.2% as traders continued to weigh the merits of heavy artificial intelligence spending by mega-cap tech companies heading into Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday. Sentiment was also impacted by President Trump's statement that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be "going forward" after they were previously delayed until March (more below). Markets are gauging the implications of recently soft economic data and persistent uncertainty around U.S. political developments as well. *_European markets traded in mixed fashion on Tuesday, reflecting cautious market sentiment._* European markets showed a mixed reaction at the start of the week as investors assessed the results of Germany’s federal election. The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU), secured the largest share of votes. Their candidate, Friedrich Merz, is set to replace Olaf Scholz as Germany’s chancellor, marking a shift in leadership for Europe’s largest economy. *_In Asia, most stocks sank. Risk appetite was hit by a Bloomberg News report that the White House was seeking to toughen Biden-era controls on semiconductor technology exports to China -- especially chips from Nvidia. This came after Trump over the weekend called for more scrutiny on Chinese investments in key U.S. sectors, threatening to ratchet up tensions with Beijing._* *Commodities* *_Gold prices were lower in early European trade on Tuesday, but remained close to recent peaks as safe-haven demand was underpinned by concerns over U.S. trade tariffs._* The yellow metal had risen in overnight trade, touching a new record high, after Trump signaled his intention to go ahead with the levies on Canada and Mexico. *_Meanwhile, oil prices ticked higher after the U.S. placed fresh sanctions on more than 30 brokers, shipping firms, and tanker operators over their role in transporting Iranian oil. The decision raised worries around tightening supplies._* *_Iron ore futures prices faltered on Tuesday, weighed down by a recovery in iron ore shipments, with increasing levies and legislations on Chinese steel exports putting further pressure on sentiment._* The most-traded May iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed down 2.17% at 813 yuan ($111.97) a metric ton. The benchmark March iron ore on the Singapore Exchange (OTC:SPXCY) was 2.23% lower at $105.95 a ton as of 0705 GMT. A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers is introducing a legislation to address the impact of Chinese-supported companies moving portions of their production to other countries to circumvent American duties. *_Malaysian palm oil futures gained about 1% to over MYR 4,600 per tonne, recovering from previous losses due to supply concerns._* Crude Oil WTI...70.81 (+0.16%) Brent Oil...74.33 (+0.03%) Natural Gas...3.976 (-0.15%) Gold...2,954.80 (-0.28%) Silver...32.53 (-0.22%) Copper...9,466.65 (-0.63%) Nickel...15,316.38 (-0.25%) *Global indexes* STOXX 50..5,442.27 (-0.21%) CAC 40..8,080.46 (-0.13%) DAX..22,401.46 (-0.11%) FTSE..8,659.93 (+0.01%) NIKKEI..38.237,79 (-1.39%) HSI..23,034.02 (-1.32%) SHCOMP..3,346.04 (-0.8%) TAIEX..23,285.72 (-1.19%) KOSPI..2,630.29 (-0.57%) S&P/ASX 200..8,251.90 (-0.68%) SENSEX..74,682.53 (+0.31%) STI..3,918.15 (-0.24%) DOW FUT..43,553.00 (+0.04%) S&P FUT..5,998.25 (-0.04%) NASDAQ FUT..21,373.25 (-0.22%) ------------