FIRST TAKE: Egypt’s $3 bil LNG deal BULLISH for JKM and European benchmarks • Egypt’s EGPC has agreed to purchase 60 LNG cargoes to meet its 2025 import needs – roughly 4.2 million mt: sources • This is higher than expectations – with further demand upside looming – reflecting continuing steep declines in upstream output, particularly at Egypt’s Zohr field • This serves as a reminder of upside LNG demand risk in 2025 in a market that is already tight Egypt’s EGPC has agreed to purchase 60 LNG cargoes from Shell and TotalEnergies to meet its 2025 import needs – roughly 4.2 million, market sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights Feb. 10. The event is bullish for JKM and European benchmarks because it adds to LNG demand in an increasingly tight market for 2025. The Platts JKM, the benchmark price reflecting LNG delivered to Northeast Asia, has crossed a 14-month high and was assessed at $16.324/MMBtu on Feb. 7, for March delivery. Commodity Insights' most recent published forecast was for Egypt’s 2025 imports to total 3.2 million mt, but this will be increased to at least 4.2 million mt in the next iteration. There is further upside here, given that Egypt has already imported 8 cargoes year-to-date (through 38 days) despite winter being a traditional period of lower gas demand. Egypt’s growing need for LNG has been driven by poor reservoir performance at the Zohr field, which started in 2017 and reached 2.7 Bcf/d (27.9 Bcm) by 3Q 2019. Rather than remaining at that plateau, Zohr has consistently declined in recent years. Output declined by as much as 0.5 Bcf/d (5.2 Bcm) in 2024 alone to reach about 1.5 Bcf/d (15.5 Bcm) by year-end. These upstream problems have also stopped LNG exports from Egypt’s two liquefaction facilities, which have not been used since April 2024. This uptick in Egyptian demand adds to bullish sentiment for LNG prices at a time when the summer market looks increasingly tight, with some demand recovery expected in Asian markets and Europe needing to refill storage from relatively low levels. Read on Platts Connect: Platts Connect: News & Insights