FIRST TAKE: Trump-Putin call BEARISH for TTF open but NEUTRAL longer term as US-Russia talks unlikely to yield quick results   * Donald Trump’s Feb. 12 call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, followed by a Trump call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, kicks off the Trump-driven peace talks that the president has long promised. * TTF prices have shown a tendency to react sharply to any news suggesting a Ukraine peace deal may be in the cards. * But peace in Ukraine and Russia will not come quickly or easily; nor is it be likely to lead to a large-scale return of Russian pipeline gas to Europe.   Readouts from the Trump-Putin call gave no useful detail. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier Feb. 12 that it was unrealistic for Ukraine to restore its pre-2014 borders and that the US did not support Ukraine’s NATO membership. The comments reflected facts that were already known and may have been stated publicly as an early signal of flexibility that Trump will expect Putin to match.   An immediate deal would require an immediate acceptance of most of Putin’s starting terms – something that can be ruled out completely. The Russian military was making gains in eastern Ukraine before the onset of winter, and these gains will likely continue when weather allows. Putin will negotiate hard and try to improve his negotiating position with spring battlefield gains. Predicting a deal by summer would be very optimistic, and it is possible there will be no deal at all in 2025.   The view that peace would lead to a resumption of large-scale flows of Russian pipeline gas to Europe is misplaced in our view. Trump is driving the process and will not be inclined to give Europe a seat at the table, nor to support a resumption of Russian gas flows as part of any deal. Trump's criticism of Germany’s dependence on Russian gas was apparent during his first term in office. Moreover, Gazprom owes Eur13.3 billion in arbitration awards to EU companies; these awards cannot simply be waved away, and they pose a major obstacle.   Laurent Ruseckas   Read on Platts Connect: https://tinyurl.com/6awukhd6