FIRST TAKE: Western Australia cyclone BULLISH for JKM but BEARISH macro dominates Japan’s fragile LNG supply chain impacted by loading delays Fuel restrictions announced for less than 3% of gas-fired power capacity Bullish impact offset by broader decline in gas prices due to Trump-Putin talks Australia’s Tropical Cyclone Zelia has worsened to the highest level of Category 5 and is expected to hit the state of Western Australia on Friday, Feb. 14. LNG loadings at Pilbara coast terminals have already been delayed since Feb. 12 and at least 12 LNG carriers are circling at sea to avoid storm damage. It is normal for Australian ports to halt operations for a couple of days due to storms, but Zelia-related disruptions could extend into the weekend. The main LNG terminals in the vicinity are Woodside Energy’s North West Shelf and Pluto LNG, and Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG. Prelude FLNG is also nearby. Japan is sensitive to delays in LNG loadings of even a few days due to low storage capacity. Its largest power generation company, JERA, on Feb. 13 imposed fuel restrictions at 1.785 GW of gas-fired units at the Joetsu thermal power plant in northwest Japan that will last until Feb. 23. This equals around 3% of Japan's total gas-fired power generation capacity of around 78 GW. Joetsu is a regular importer of Wheatstone and Gorgon LNG. Zelia-related disruptions are bullish for JKM prices because Japan’s LNG importers will seek some replacement cargoes at short notice in a fairly tight spot LNG market, and cold weather will lower overall gas inventories. However, the price support from cyclone-related delays is offset by the decline in the broader energy complex on the back of US-Russia talks, which is putting pressure on European gas and crude oil prices. Read on Platts Connect: https://tinyurl.com/4uwe8mms Eric Yep