FIRST TAKE: US-Russia talks won’t bring quick results but could move TTF anyway – BEARISH for TTF open but NEUTRAL longer term Laurent Ruseckas *The first US-Russian face-to-face meeting to discuss a resolution of the war in Ukraine took place on Feb 18 in Saudi Arabia *Readouts from the meeting were positive but modest – and didn't mention gas – but TTF may react in any case, adding to the bearishness seen since Feb 11 *The US move to sideline Europe in these negotiations deepens our conviction that a return of Russian pipeline gas to Europe will not be on the agenda TTF DA and MA prices have dropped 16% in the past week (driving a similar decline in JKM). This included a 5% decline at the open on Feb. 13 following news of the Trump-Putin phone call, yet it has primarily been driven by European fundamentals, and by suggestions that EU storage fill requirements for summer-25 could be softened. The talks in Saudi Arabia will continue a process that we expect to move slowly despite Trump’s desire for a quick deal. The negotiations will necessarily focus on territory and security guarantees, but Russia will also be seeking sanctions relief – most of all the removal of the US financial sanctions that have damaged the Russian economy and helped drive its current high inflation and interest rates. Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe cannot be part of a sanctions discussion as they were never the subject of US or EU sanctions. Moreover, the Trump administration has conspicuously sidelined Europe in the negotiations and will have little interest in supporting any return of Russian gas (including the sanctioned Arctic-2 LNG project) to the market. Read on Platts Connect: https://tinyurl.com/k8buvzhk