S&P Global Commodity Insights First Take
S&P Global Commodity Insights First Take
February 21, 2025 at 04:42 PM
FIRST TAKE: US pressure to restart Kurdish oil exports BEARISH for Brent sentiment but fundamentals little changed   * Reduced CPC pipeline rates effectively balance out a potential increase Kurdish exports * An important implication is that this could be intended to replace lower Iranian exports * Raises the question of who decides Kurdish exports: Iraq, OPEC+, or the US News reports that the US is pressuring Iraq to allow for the resumption of Kurdish crude exports is BEARISH for ICE Brent futures sentiment, but physical oil fundamentals remain little changed as CPC Blend flows into the Mediterranean are currently at reduced rates. This, for now, at least partially offsets the bearish impact of more Kirkuk in the region. Prompt ICE Brent fell nearly $1/b during morning US trading Feb. 21. CPC Blend discounts against Dated Brent have edged quietly higher over the past week to minus $3.50/b as of Feb. 20 after the Kropotkinskaya pumping station was decommissioned Feb. 17 due to a drone attack. As we said in a recent FIRST TAKE, Kazakhstan crude inventories can sustain exports for over 15 days, largely mitigating any possible rally. But any prolonged disruption could be BULLISH. Importantly, more Kurdish crude into the global market should be seen as a balancing act against potential lower Iranian crude exports, due to increased sanctions/pressure on Iran from Washington. Further, this raises the important question of who ultimately controls Kurdish exports: Iraq, OPEC+, or the US?   Read more on Platts Connect: https://tinyurl.com/tmxdbxhm
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