S&P Global Commodity Insights First Take
S&P Global Commodity Insights First Take
February 25, 2025 at 09:10 AM
FIRST TAKE: Latest EU, UK, US sanctions NEUTRAL for crude oil prices, freight rates   • Russia increased the use of non-sanctioned vessels for crude oil exports, effectively offsetting reduced volumes from sanctioned vessels. • Shipments of Russian oil under the price cap and Kazakh oil through the Primorsk, Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga ports are exempt from the EU ban. • The latest sanctions are unlikely to impact freight rates significantly, as they do not induce structural changes in trade flows, despite a rise in ship-to-ship transfer volumes.   The EU and UK on Feb. 24 announced sanctions on three major Russian oil ports and numerous "dark" tankers, while the US imposed new sanctions on the Iranian Oil Terminals Company, 13 tankers and several entities. These measures are expected to be NEUTRAL for crude oil prices and freight rates, largely because market participants have adapted to the Jan. 10 US sanctions, finding ways to deliver sanctioned barrels.    Moreover, ongoing US-Russia peace talks may dampen potential price increases due to Russian supply constraints from sanctions. Additionally, any reduction in Iranian oil exports is likely to be offset by increased Kurdish crude supply in the coming weeks.   Nevertheless, the volumes affected by the sanctions are non-negligible on paper. We estimate that the EU and UK sanctions on Feb. 24 impacted tankers that loaded 650,000 b/d of Russian crude in January. US sanctions on Feb. 24 affected tankers exporting less than 100,000 b/d of Iranian crude that loaded in January. Notably, India imported over 300,000 b/d of Urals in 2024 via vessels sanctioned by the EU and UK Feb. 24.   Read on Platts Connect: https://plattsconnect.spglobal.com/#platts/insightsArticle?articleID=ff7a80b3-405f-433f-b45c-df0b16256156&insightsType=Spotlight
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