FIRST TAKE: Movement to soften EU gas storage mandate still BEARISH for TTF/JKM following recent sharp declines Laurent Ruseckas *The EU Affordable Energy Action Plan published Feb. 26 further signals a more flexible approach toward the EU gas storage mandate for summer-25 *An across-the-board reduction of the storage target from 90% to 80% for Nov. 1 is not likely; but we expect significant flexibility to be allowed *Views on a potential return of Russian gas remain a significant bearish factor The relatively strong drawdown of EU gas storage in winter-24 has driven a persistent negative spread between TTF winter-25 and summer-25. This dynamic is largely a function of the EU gas storage regulation, which requires most EU member states to fill storage to 90% by Nov. 1, essentially pulling demand (and higher prices) from winter into summer. The EU plan released today mentions the storage mandate only in passing – but uses stronger language than what had appeared in a previously leaked draft, acknowledging “market distortions” caused by the mandate. The Energy Commissioner said any announcements on softening the mandate for summer-2025 would be coming in the weeks ahead. We don’t expect the EU target to be dropped from 90% to 80%, as some have argued for. Policymakers remain concerned about physical supply and have a bias toward preparing for the worst. Yet they do see the problem, and will find ways to smuggle in some flexibility on top of the “derogations” (exemptions) already granted to the Netherlands and most of Central Europe. TTF is down 27% since Feb. 10, pulling down with it NWE DES and JKM prices (down 24% and 21.5% respectively over this period). This decline has been part fundamentals, part expectations on storage rules, and part a belief that Russian gas may return. We remain sceptical on this final point and will return to this theme soon. Read more on PlattsConnect: https://tinyurl.com/y4dmwj8t