FIRST TAKE: US tariffs on Canada, Mexico BULLISH for US gasoline, diesel, BEARISH for global HSFO, heavy crude if not delayed again   • US East Coast gasoline cracks and imports from non-Canadian origin will increase, benefiting European refiners and Atlantic Basin clean tanker freights • US PADD 2/4 refiners will run more light-sweet crudes and less WCS, reducing overall runs on margins • US PADD 3 refiners will cut coker utilization rates, tightening US gasoline/diesel prices and weighing on global HSFO, heavy crude values   US President Donald Trump said that US tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China would go into effect March 4. If the implementation is not delayed again, on the crude front, Western Canadian Select price will increase for Midcontinent buyers even though Canada absorbs much of the cost. This will make more heavy crude available outside the US, boost Brent and widen light-heavy crude price differentials. WCS exports from the US Gulf Coast and West Coast will likely shift to Asia, primarily China, on the margin although some other Asian refiners are economically reluctant to take such a heavy sour grade.   On the product front, US PADD 3, the Gulf Coast, refiners will face higher costs from WCS and Maya, and loss of Mexican heavy feedstocks, leading to lighter slates, reduced coker utilization, and increased gasoline and distillate prices. Assuming US coker utilization will be cut by 20 percentage points, that will redirect around 350,000 b/d heavy molecules to global markets, weighing on global HSFO prices and widening global light-heavy product spreads.   Canada and Mexico exported 4.6 million b/d and 0.5 million b/d of crude and refined products to the US, respectively, in the first 11 months of 2024, according to US Energy Information Administration data. Both accounted for 65% of total US crude and refined product imports. Any oil trade flow disruption will likely elevate US inflation and overshadow global economic growth.   Zhuwei Wang, Richard Joswick   Read on Platts Connect:https://plattsconnect.spglobal.com/web/index1.html#platts/insightsArticle?articleID=5e7a2251-185e-481f-8b80-8031e4b8a081&insightsType=Spotlight