Trader Pulse By Vishal
Trader Pulse By Vishal
June 6, 2025 at 03:37 AM
_Morning Snippet:- 06 June 2025_ *Index Observation* 3 week now and Nifty continues to remain in the 2% band. RBI policy due today can act as a catalyst for the index to move beyond this zone. Highs of 25000 has been constantly providing supply on index longs. Downside target of 24300 / 24100 remains open unless a closing above 25050 is not confirmed. On daily charts, the index has also formed a bearish head and shoulder pattern pointing out to similar targets. Bank Nifty has faced rejection from its previous all-time highs above 56k mark in Tuesday’s trading session. Any trade below 55400 is likely to allow further skidding on the index for lower levels seen near 54700 / 54500 as the supply pressure is likely to mount post rejection seen earlier this week. RBI’s policy decision is scheduled for today 10am. *Interesting Observation* Since May 2025, Bank Nifty has been consolidating within a tight range, characterized by higher lows but overlapping highs, signaling indecision among market participants. The daily price range has contracted significantly, with the last two days being narrower than 15days average range. This prolonged compression is mirrored in declining volatility metrics. The 15-day Average True Range (ATR) for Bank Nifty has dipped to 550, notably below the 3-month and 6-month averages of approximately 650. Yesterday's exceptionally tight 430-point range highlights this contraction. This narrowing price action has formed a rising wedge or triangle pattern, often a precursor to a sharp breakout. Notably, this setup has materialized just ahead of the RBI policy event, which could act as the catalyst for a decisive directional move. Given these dynamics, it gives an opportunity to participate in the breakout trade. Monthly straddle of banknfity is currently priced at 3%. *DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup* Cash Market Activity FII: ₹ -208 crore DII: ₹ 2,382 crore *Week-to-Date (WTD)* FII: ₹ -4,575 crore DII: ₹ 16,170 crore *Month-to-Date (MTD)* FII: ₹ -4,575 crore DII: ₹ 16,170 crore *F&O Cues* FIIs have added 4k short contracts in last trading session. Their net position now stand at 107k short contracts. In the options segment, the 24500 strike to act as support, while the 25000 strike remains a key resistance. *New 52 Week High Low Data* *Large Cap:* New 52 Week Highs: 1 New 52 Week Lows: 1 *Mid Cap:* New 52 Week Highs: 3 New 52 Week Lows: 1 *Small Cap:* New 52 Week Highs: 7 New 52 Week Lows: 0 *NIFTY500:* New 52 Week Highs: 11 New 52 Week Lows: 2

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