
Cowry Asset Mgt Channel
May 15, 2025 at 02:47 PM
*Inflation Cooldown Deepens in April*: *A Turning Point or Just a Statistical Mirage*?
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicates that headline inflation eased to 23.71% in April 2025, down from 24.23% in March 2025. This reflects a 0.52ppt decline on a m/m basis and reinforces the gradual deceleration in price pressures observed in recent months; m/m, headline inflation stood at 1.86% in April 2025, down sharply from 3.90% in March 2025 — a 2.04ppt drop, indicating a slower pace in price increases between March and April.
Food inflation, a major driver of overall CPI, came in at 21.26% y/y in April 2025, a sharp 19.27ppt decrease from 40.53% in April 2024. The steep fall is largely attributed to the base year re-benchmarking, rather than a fundamental improvement in food supply chains. On a m/m basis, food inflation declined marginally to 2.06% in April, from 2.18% in March, reflecting slight price moderation in essential food items.
Also, the core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, stood at 23.39% y/y in April 2025, representing a 3.45ppt decline from 26.84% in April 2024. Monthly reading shows core inflation also slowed sharply to 1.34% in April, from 3.73% in March — a substantial 2.39ppt drop, suggesting underlying inflationary momentum is weakening.
The April 2025 CPI figures reflect broad-based disinflation across headline, food, and core inflation metrics and indicates a potential turning point in Nigeria’s inflation trajectory.